虽然有德古赫特这样的“鹰派”，但任何对华贸易举措都必须考虑到可能的后果，“贸易战”将是一个双方都会尽力趋避的选项。

Although there are dracula hutt such"hawks",But any China trade measures must take account of the possible consequences,"Trade war"Will be a two sides will try our best to later options.

　　一年以来，中国光伏产业呈现一片萧条状态，一方面，这是近年来产业结构失衡、地方政府刺激与扩张过度的结果，另一方面，国际贸易环境的变化令光伏产业雪上加霜。

Since a year,China pv industry showing a state of depression,On the one hand,This is in recent years industrial structure unbalance/The local government stimulus and excessive expansion of the results,On the other hand,The international trade environment change makes photovoltaic industry add insult to injury.

　　发达国家市场扩容曾给中国光伏企业带来高速发展机遇，但受金融危机冲击，欧美内部经济环境恶化，贸易防卫措施也纷至沓来。5月17日，美国商务部初步裁定对中国对美出口的光伏产品征收31.14%-249.96%的反倾销税，最终裁定在10月。7月24日，总部位于德国的太阳能企业SolarWorld也向欧盟委员会申诉，要求对中国光伏产品展开反倾销调查。按照欧盟法律，应在45日内做出是否立案决定，最后期限为9月6日。中国企业也不甘示弱。7月，4家国内光伏企业联合向商务部递交申请，要求对欧盟出口中国的多晶硅实行“双反”调查，得到商务部受理。

Developed countries have market expands to the Chinese photovoltaic enterprise to bring the high speed development opportunity,But the financial crisis impact,Europe and the United States internal economic deterioration of the environment,Trade defence measures also follow.On May 17,,The us department of commerce of the preliminary decision to the China's exports to America of photovoltaic products collection of 31.14% - 249.96% of the anti-dumping duties,Final decision in October.On July 24th,,The headquarters in Germany the solar energy enterprise SolarWorld also to the European commission appeal,Required to China pv products launched anti-dumping investigation.According to the European Union law,Should be in 45 days, decide whether to put on record,The deadline is on September 6,.Chinese companies are also not resigned to playing second fiddle.July,Four domestic photovoltaic enterprise to the ministry of commerce jointly file an application,Requirements for the eu exports to China polysilicon practice"Double reverse"survey,The ministry of commerce get accepted.

　　光伏贸易战一触即发，而8月底德国总理默克尔率领豪华政商阵容访华，为解决纠纷带来一丝转机。默克尔表示，现在中欧双方还有时间，希望以协商的方式解决。温家宝总理则回应说，这种解决争端的途径，可以对世界起到示范作用。

Pv a trade war,The end of August and German chancellor Angela merkel led luxury political visit China team,In order to solve disputes bring a transfer.Merkel said,Now central both sides still have time,Hope to consultative way to solve.Prime minister wen jiabao said the response,The way to resolve the dispute,Can play the part of demonstration role for the world.

　　两国总理表达共识后，便有国内企业做出乐观解读，认为欧盟可能将取消反倾销立案。但9月4日又有媒体报道称，欧盟已向中国驻欧盟使团发出照会，确认将对中国出口欧洲的太阳能电池及其组件发起反倾销调查。于是空气又变得紧张起来，更有人称这是欧盟贸易委员德古赫特给默克尔的“一记耳光”。

The two prime ministers expressed after consensus,There is the domestic enterprise to make the optimistic reading,Think the eu may will cancel the anti-dumping.But on September 4, and media reports said,The European Union has to the Chinese embassy in the eu mission a note,Confirmation will be on China's export European solar cell and its components anti-dumping investigation.So air and become nervous,More says this is the European Union trade commissioner dracula hutt to Angela merkel"A slap in the face".

　　一喜一悲，转换速度如此之快，无非表明此前业界对默克尔表态的作用冀望过高，也反映出光伏企业在风雨欲来时紧张、患得患失的心理。从法律上来讲，欧盟委员会的调查和默克尔访华是平行关系，默克尔只能在外围对欧盟调查提建议，没有参与决定权。

A like a sad,Conversion so fast,It shows that after the industry to ms merkel said role too much hope,Also reflects photovoltaic enterprises in the wind and rain to come nervous/Be swayed loss of psychology.From the legal terms,The European commission's investigation and merkel's visit is parallel relationship,Merkel can only in the periphery of the European Union investigation advice,Not involved in the decision.

　　从情理上讲，也不能把默克尔的表态解读为对中国光伏产业政策无异议，相反，默克尔正是希望通过“协商”来解决欧洲人所称的“不公平”行为，如政府补贴等。而且，默克尔从原来人们猜测的“避谈太阳能议题”，一下子变成明确表态，更让德古赫特更有了坚持既定方案的动力，以显得欧盟总部并不是对德国俯首帖耳，更不会轻易向中国“叩头”。

Tell from reason,Also can't take Angela merkel still reading for China pv industry policy no objection,instead,Ms merkel is hope that through"consultation"To solve the European call"Not fair"behavior,Such as government subsidies, etc.and,Merkel from the people of speculation"Avoid talking about solar energy issues",Suddenly become clear statement,More let dracula hutt more had adhere to established scheme of power,To appear the European Union headquarters and not the German FuShouTieEr,More will not easily to China"kowtow".

　　这样的态势，也许确实会让一些光伏企业担心的“立案不可避免”的前景变为现实。但立案也不意味着再无转圜余地。欧盟官员对于反倾销案件的认定以及具体税率的确定，都拥有较大的自由裁量权。在这个过程中，中国政府可以继续发挥影响力，争取德国等方面的支持，以获得一个对国内企业更有利的结果，无论是在制裁还是税率方面。

Such a situation,Perhaps really will make some photovoltaic enterprise to worry about"Put on record inevitably"Prospects into reality.But put on record does not mean there is no room in order.The European Union officials for anti-dumping cases and the determination of that specific tax rate,Have larger discretion.In this process,The Chinese government can continue to exert influence,For Germany support,To obtain a domestic enterprise more favorable results,Whether in sanctions or tax rate aspects.

　　可以说，在这个事件上默克尔和德古赫特分别唱了“红脸”和“白脸”。德古赫特2010年就任欧盟贸易委员时就向欧洲议会承诺，将对中国采取强硬立场。当然，一直以来，欧盟企业也对中国在市场准入、政府补贴、政府采购、知识产权保护等方面的政策颇有微词，希望欧盟贸易委员会对中国施压。但另一方面，中国和欧盟又互为对方的主要贸易伙伴，中国的庞大市场对困境中的欧洲经济复苏意义重大。“形势比人强。”虽然有德古赫特这样的“鹰派”，但任何对华贸易举措都必须考虑到可能的后果，且历史表明，欧盟官员在权衡利弊之后，通常也会做出符合其利益的决策，“贸易战”将是一个双方都会尽力趋避的选项。 

Can say,In this event on Angela merkel and dracula hutt respectively sing"blush"and"White face".Dracula hutt since 2010 when the eu trade commissioner, to the European parliament commitment,Will take a hard line with China.Of course,Has been,The eu enterprises in China also in market access/The government subsidies/Government procurement/Intellectual property protection policy disapprove,Hope that the European Union trade committee to put pressure on China.But on the other hand,China and the eu and are each other's main trading partners,China's huge market for struggling European economic recovery is of great significance."Situation than strong."Although there are dracula hutt such"hawks",But any China trade measures must take account of the possible consequences,And history shows that,The European Union officials after weigh the pros and cons,Often make conform to the interests of its decision,"Trade war"Will be a two sides will try our best to later options. 

　　对中欧关系关注者来说，目前的情景有似曾相识之感。2005年中国对欧纺织品出口配额取消后，中国纺织品凭借竞争优势大量涌入欧洲，欧洲纺织行业纷纷申请保护，导致欧盟贸易委员会考虑抡起反倾销与反补贴大棒。最终在2005年6月10日，欧盟对华纺织品贸易“15天特保预备期”到来前的最后一分钟，双方达成协议，避免一场两败俱伤的贸易战。纺织品贸易的规模远大于光伏产品，当时受到的关注也远大于目前的光伏纠纷。而且那时金融危机尚未爆发，欧洲经济一片繁荣，中国尚未成为全球第二大经济体，在世界经济中的分量远不如今天，欧洲有求于中国的事项很少。如果当时中欧双方就能找到出路避免零和性的对抗，今天的智慧和经验应该更多才对。

China-eu relations concerns to it,The present situation is the feeling of deja vu.In 2005, China textile export to Europe after the cancel of quota,Chinese textile competitive advantage with an influx of Europe,European textile industry are apply for protection,Lead to European Union trade committee considered lun the anti-dumping and countervailing stick.Finally in 2005 June 10,,Eu's textile trade"15 days safeguard probationary period"Before the arrival of the last minute,The two sides reach a deal,Avoid a battle in which both sides had a full-fledged trade war.Textile trade scale great light volt products,At that time the attention is also far outweigh the photovoltaic dispute.And then the financial crisis has not yet outbreak,European economic a piece of prosperity,China has yet to become the world's second largest economy,The component in the world economy than today,European commitments China's matters little.If at that time the central Europe to find a way to avoid zero and sexual confrontation,Today's wisdom and experience to should be more.

　　当年的纺织品争端还充分说明，欧盟内部并非铁板一块，不同国家和产业的利益诉求大相径庭。当时对华贸易保护主义呼声比较高的多是传统上纺织业较发达的南欧国家，如意大利、西班牙等，而以外贸作为主要经济命脉的北欧国家则反对壁垒，敦促南欧国家加快产业转型。

The textile dispute also full explanation,The eu is not a monolithic block,Different countries and industry interest demand vary widely.At that time China calls for trade protectionism is much higher is the traditional textile industry is developed in southern Europe,Such as Italy/Spain,And take the foreign trade as the main economic vitals the Nordic countries were in opposition to the barriers,Urged southern countries speed up the industry transition.

　　类似的态势也存在于今天。当前对华反倾销调查的推手是欧洲太阳能企业，而中国如果明确表态，假如欧盟做出反倾销裁定，就马上像对美国一样，对欧洲多晶硅甚至其他产业亦展开“双反”调查，欧洲就必须权衡，是否有必要为太阳能产业做出牺牲。这是值得谨慎考虑的，因为，即使对华征收反倾销税，也不能解救欧洲太阳能产业，而且长远来看，把污染严重、需要低廉劳工的光伏产业上游放在中国，其实对欧洲的可再生能源产业是有利的。

A similar situation also exists in today.The current anti-dumping investigation of hand slap is the European solar energy enterprise,While China if clear statement,If the eu anti-dumping decision made,As soon as in the United States,For European polysilicon even other industry also expansion"Double reverse"survey,Europe must weigh,Is it necessary to make sacrifices for the solar energy industry.This is worth careful consideration,because,Even if China anti-dumping duties,Cannot save Europe solar energy industry,And in the long run,The serious pollution/Need to cheap labor of photovoltaic industry upstream in China,In fact to Europe's renewable energy industry is favorable.

　　总之，欧盟在自身结构上的固有问题，为中国提供了加以“分化”和利用的机会。就像单一货币的束缚加剧了欧元区危机一样，布鲁塞尔的欧盟机构与各成员国之间的利益差异，让欧盟难以在贸易、外交等各方面制定让各方都满意的协调性政策。在对华政策方面，这既表现为各国争相希望从中国拿到更丰厚的商业合同，也表现为军售问题上的立场不一。默克尔和德古赫特的表态差异也是一个例子。

In a word,The European Union in their own structural inherent problems,For China to provide the"differentiation"And use of opportunity.As a single currency bound increased as the eurozone crisis,The Brussels institutions and each member in the interests of the differences between,Let the eu hard in the trade/Diplomatic and so on various aspects make let all parties satisfied coordination policy.In the China policy,It was for the performance of the countries from China to hope to get more lucrative business contract,Also for the sales performance on different position.Merkel and dracula hutt rhetoric differences is an example.

　　此外，如何把一个日益强大的大国绑在欧盟对华交往的统一框架内，也是欧盟的巨大挑战。如果说对于谁是欧洲“老大”过去还有疑问的话，本次危机已给出确定无疑的答案。中德在经济、外交等政策上的日益接近，也让“中德特殊关系”甚至所谓的“北京-柏林轴心”得到国际媒体热议。

In addition,How to put an increasingly powerful tied to the eu's communication within the framework of unity,The European Union is the great challenge.If for who is Europe"boss"The past and questions,The crisis has given certain answer.Sino-german in economic/The diplomatic policies of the increasingly close,Also let"Sino-german special relationship"Even the so-called"Beijing - axis of Berlin"Get the international media hot debate.

　　当然。所有的伙伴关系都不是永远牢靠的，中德、中欧关系的未来取决于双方能否淡化意识形态争执，控制贸易摩擦，将双边关系牢牢扎根于经济互补之上。默克尔上台时正值英、法亦是右翼党派执政，故而对华政策的价值观色彩较强，2007年会见达赖更让中德关系紧张。但最终，还是经济力量把中德自然而然地拉近，同样的逻辑也可适用于欧洲整体。

Of course.All of the partnership is not always reliable,sino-german/China-eu relations future depends on the two parties can desalt ideology dispute,Control trade friction,Will bilateral relations firmly rooted in the above economic complementary.Merkel came into power when the English/Method is also right wing party ruling,So China policy values color strong,2007 years to meet with the dalai more let sino-german tension.But in the end,Or economic strength the sino-german naturally close,The same logic applies to the whole of Europe.

　　9月12日，夏季达沃斯论坛就将在天津召开了。在去年的论坛上，“中国是否救欧洲”成为主导话题。当然，欧洲的主要问题并不是“缺钱”，所谓的“救欧洲”其实代表了一种综合的愿望，包括中国购买欧洲国家债券、向欧洲纾困机制出资、中国外汇储备增持欧元资产、中企赴欧投资和收购等等。但中国领导人至今除了友好的言辞外，没有奉献多少实质举动。今年会不会有所不同？这也许在一定程度上取决于，中欧能不能在解决本次光伏贸易纠纷的过程中，共同寻找一种更为和谐共赢的相处方式。

On September 12,,The summer davos BBS will be held in tianjin.In the last year on the BBS,"Whether China save Europe"Become the leading topic.Of course,Europe's main problem is not"Lack of money",The so-called"Save Europe"Actually represents a kind of comprehensive desire,Including China buy European countries bonds/European bail-out mechanism to the capital contribution/China's foreign exchange reserve assets around the euro/ZhongQi to European investment and acquisition and so on.But China's leaders so far in addition to the friendly words,How much did not offer substantial move.Will this year is different?Perhaps this to a certain extent, depends on,Central Europe to be able to solve in the photovoltaic trade dispute process,Common looking for a more harmonious win-win way to get along with.