金仕曼集团首席执行官乔纳森·金仕曼昨日在“2012郑州农产品（白糖）期货论坛”上预测，在今年第四季度，世界蔗糖的出口量将比进口量多100万吨左右，明年蔗糖进出口失衡的情况将更加严重。

JinShiMan group chief executive Jonathan · JinShiMan yesterday in"2012 zhengzhou agricultural products(sugar)Futures BBS"Prediction on,In the fourth quarter of this year,The world exports of sucrose than imports more than 1 million tons,Next year the situation of sucrose import and export imbalances will be more serious.

　　他介绍说，目前世界各地的食糖生产成本普遍增加，巴西情况尤为严重，巴西已不再是世界上生产成本最低的国家。巴西的食糖生产成本持续增加，把世界各地的市场价格进一步推高。在生产方面，泰国今年的产量有很大的提高，如果没有天气问题，他们的产量可能达到另一个高峰。欧洲的生产者非常高效，成本低，产出高，具有较强的竞争力，也很有可能成为重大的出口者。

He said,At present all over the world sugar production cost generally increased,Brazil is particularly serious situation,Brazil is no longer the world the lowest cost of production country.Brazil's sugar production cost increasing,The world market price further push the high.In the production,Thailand this year's production has been greatly improved,If there is no weather problem,They yield could reach another peak.European producers is very efficient,Low cost,Output high,With strong competitiveness,Also is likely to become a major cashmere.

　　他说，作为世界三大重要的蔗糖消费国之一的中国，如果产量继续增长，明年可能就不再需要进口。而俄罗斯则重建了蔗糖产业，主要依靠自己生产，而非进口。美国的情况大致相同，产量也在不断增加。目前世界蔗糖的产量过剩，用中国的产量预测，过剩产量约有120亿吨。他预测未来糖的需求会不断增加，在今后八年中可能增加3000万吨，这其中约有1800万的产能来自泰国、南非等地。

He said,As one of the three big important sucrose China, one of the consumer,If production continue to grow,Next year may no longer need to import.But Russia is rebuilt the sugar industry,Mainly rely on their own production,And FeiJinKou.America roughly the same,Production has also increased.At present the world sugar production surplus,With China's yield prediction,Excess production about 12 billion tons.He predicted the future sugar needs will increase,In the next eight years may increase of 30 million tons,The production capacity of about 18 million from Thailand/South Africa.