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今年上半年出口收汇下滑 未来需高度关注风险--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-09-14

  中国国家外汇管理局周三称,上半年中国出口收汇总体较稳定,但下滑态势值得关注,未来仍需高度关注出口收汇风险。

China's state administration of foreign exchange said on Wednesday,In the first half of China's exports in the overall is stable,But glide trend is a concern,The future still need highly pay attention to the risk of export proceeds.

  外管局公布的上半年收支报告中的专栏文章称,受外部经济复苏放缓、欧债危机继续发酵、国际金融市场不稳定因素较多等影响,中国企业在特定阶段或特定地区的出口收汇不确定性依然较大。

Safe in the first half of the published balance report column says,By external slowdown in economic recovery/The debt crisis continue fermentation/The international financial market instability factors such as more influence,Chinese enterprise in a specific phase or specific areas of export proceeds uncertainty still larger.

  文章指出,2012年上半年,中国出口收汇率(货物贸易跨境收入/出口)为91%,仍保持在较高水平,较2011年上半年略降1个百分点。但二季度出口收汇率为85%,相对一季度下滑较大,并且也低于2011年同期5个百分点。

The paper points out that,In the first half of 2012,China's export the exchange rate(Trade in goods cross-border income/export)91%,Remain at high levels,In the first half of 2011 is slightly drop 1%.But in the second quarter of the export exchange rate is 85%,Relatively large decline in the first quarter,And also less than 5% compared with the same period in 2011.

  这一方面说明中国出口收汇受到2011年底以来境外流动性趋紧、交易对手资金状况不佳等因素影响,出现一定的收汇风险;另一方面也反映了在人民币汇率双向波动的情况下,境内企业出口后尽快尽早收结汇的意愿降低。

This aspect elucidation China export proceeds by the end of 2011 overseas liquidity tightening since/Counterparty capital position strife and other factors,Appear certain in the risk;On the other hand, it also reflects the in the RMB exchange rate under the condition of two-way fluctuation,The export of domestic enterprises as soon as possible as soon as possible after the settlement of exchange will reduce.

  文章指出,下一阶段,外汇管理部门将继续支持国家稳定外贸增长的政策,稳步推进货物贸易外汇管理改革,进一步将促进贸易便利的政策措施落到实处,切实增强企业出口竞争力,并防范出口收汇风险。

The paper points out that,The next phase,Foreign exchange management department will continue to support the country's stability of foreign trade growth policy,Steadily promote the development of trade in goods to foreign exchange management reform,Further will promote trade convenient policy measures into effect,Strengthen enterprise export competitiveness,And guard against the risk of export proceeds.

  据海关统计,2012年上半年出口同比增长9%,增速明显低于去年同期增长24%的水平,受此影响,出口收汇增长也较低迷,据国际收支申报统计,上半年出口收汇(货物贸易跨境收入)同比增长8%,增速远低于去年同期增长29%的水平。

According to customs statistics,In the first half of 2012 exports year-on-year growth of 9%,Growth is obviously lower than last year the corresponding period grows 24% level,Affected by this,Declare export income growth also a downturn,According to the international balance of payment reporting statistics,Declare export income in the first half(Trade in goods cross-border income)Year-on-year growth of 8%,Growth is far lower than last year the corresponding period grows 29% level.

  文章分析指出,一般情况下,出口货物流与跨境收入资金流之间会存在差异,影响因素包括出口预收和延收问题,可以在一定程度上反映出口货款的回收速度及风险,此外也与出口企业的收汇意愿有关;出口不需收汇的特殊情况、季节性波动和统计口径等,但这些因素不随外贸环境的改变而变化,可以认为相对稳定。

The article points out,generally,Export goods flow and cross-border capital income between differences,Influence factors include export prepaid and delay the problem,Can to a certain extent, reflects the export recovery rate and risk,In addition also and of export enterprises intend to relevant;Export does not need to control the special circumstances/Seasonal variation and statistical caliber, etc,But these factors do not with foreign trade environment changes,Can think of relative stability.

  中国刚刚公布的8月份贸外贸数据不佳,8月出口同比增长2.7%,略低于路透调查中值3.0%;进口同比下降2.6%,远低于路透调查中值的增长3.5%;贸易顺差266.7亿美元,高于预估的顺差198亿美元。

China has just published August trade foreign trade data not beautiful,August exports year-on-year growth of 2.7%,Slightly lower than Reuters survey median 3.0%;Imports fell 2.6% year-on-year,Far below Reuters survey median 3.5% growth rate;The trade surplus of $26.67 billion,Higher than estimated surplus of $19.8 billion.



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