由于欧、美反倾销大棒相继抡起，加之国内市场短期内大规模启动乏力，光伏行业如今陷入“内忧外患”的煎熬之中，外界对于这个行业未来的发展趋势犹如“雾里看花”。

Due to the/American anti-dumping stick successive lun the,Together with the domestic market in the short term mass start lack of power,Photovoltaic industry now in"State of flux"Suffering of,The outside world for the industry's future development trend is like"in".

　　民生证券电力设备及新能源行业首席分析师王海生对记者表示，欧、美反倾销的负面影响会在明年集中发作，届时全行业面临的将是欧洲市场超过400亿元销售收入的损失，以及近一半的欧洲市场份额的快速丢失。

The people's livelihood securities power equipment and new energy industry WangHaiSheng chief analyst told reporters,the/American anti-dumping negative influence over the next year will be concentrated attack,When the industry will be faced with the European market more than 40 billion yuan sales revenue loss,And nearly half of the European market share of the rapid loss.

　　国网能源研究院副总经济师白建华则告诉记者，“十二五”期间国内光伏发电并网将步入快轨道，未来一段时间内下游电站开发及运营的投资价值将逐渐凸显。

Priorities energy research institute assistant chief economist BaiJianHua, told reporters,"1025"The domestic photovoltaic power grid during will into the fast track,The next period of time within the downstream power station development and operation of investment value will gradually highlight.

　　欧洲市场份额明年折半

The European market share where next year

　　主持人：欧洲对华光伏反倾销已正式立案，接下来会进入到哪些程序？

The host:Europe's pv anti-dumping has been put on record,The next step would be to enter the what program?

　　王海生：在立案之后，首先会做一个针对涉案企业及相关人的取样调查及发问卷，采样大概需要15天，发问卷是15—37天；问卷收上来之后其实就有了一个初步结果，然后再针对这个结果对被调查人做一个回访，通过拜访来做一下确认。

WangHaiSheng:After put on record in,First do a according to enterprise and relevant involved the sampling investigation and hair questionnaire,Sampling probably needs 15 days,Hair questionnaire is 15-37 days;After the questionnaire up actually have a preliminary results,And then according to the results of investigation people make a return visit,Through the visit to confirm.

　　值得注意的是，欧盟反倾销的一大特点是比较重视反倾销对于整个社会公益的影响，如果调查发现，反倾销有可能会对其他行业或者说对整个社会产生负面影响，就有可能不会采取反倾销措施。

It is important to note that,One of the characteristics of the eu anti-dumping anti-dumping is more important for the whole social influence,If the survey found,Anti-dumping likely to other industry or to the society as a whole have a negative impact,It is possible to not take anti-dumping measures.

　　基于此，我认为，这个社会利益调查有可能会为中国企业带来一丝转机。因为中国企业退出会加剧欧盟社会失业问题。

Based on this,I think,The social interest investigation may be for Chinese enterprise to bring a transfer.Because the Chinese enterprise exit exacerbate the eu social problem of unemployment.

　　主持人：欧洲反倾销对于我国光伏行业的影响，一个笼统的说法是会带来204亿美元的中国对欧光伏出口额的损失。对行业的具体负面影响该如何分析？

The host:European anti-dumping to our country the influence of photovoltaic industry,A general is that will bring China's us $20.4 billion for the photovoltaic exports loss.The specific negative impact to the industry how to analysis?

　　王海生：204亿美元的出口额只是2011年的数字，今年会发生一些变化。一个是出口量上，虽然德国市场变化不大，但意大利会明显下滑，总体上今年欧洲市场会下降15GW左右，电池组件的平均售价如果按照0.7美金/瓦计算，全年对欧销售额大概是100亿美元，降到去年的一半。事实上，按照我们的预测，即使没有反倾销这个事情，欧洲政府补贴下调也将导致主要国家市场继续下滑。综合分析，明年中国产品在欧市场份额会下降30%—50%。

WangHaiSheng:20.4 billion dollars exports only 2011 digital,This year will happen some changes.One is on exports,Although the German market change is not big,But Italy will be a significant slowdown,On the whole this year the European market will drop about 15 gw,The battery module the average price of $0.7 if/tile calculation,Annual sales to Europe is about 10 billion dollars,To half as much as last year.In fact,According to our forecast,Even if no anti-dumping this thing,European government subsidy cuts will also lead to major markets continue to slide.Comprehensive analysis,Next year's Chinese products in the European market share will decline 30% - 50%.

　　反倾销对今年100亿美元的对欧出口额可能不会有影响，因为年底前不会出初裁结果。但对于明年市场，我觉得可能会导致50—70亿美元（折合人民币超400亿元）销售收入的损失，相当于去年中国从欧进口整车的贸易额。

Anti-dumping to $10 billion this year on European exports may not have influence,Before the end of the year because of will not go out of the initial cutting results.But for the market next year,I think may lead to 50-7 billion dollars(Reduced RMB exceeds 40 billion yuan)Sales revenue loss,Last year China is equivalent to the European import trade from the vehicle.

　　国内市场短期难替代

The domestic market short-term difficult to replace

　　主持人：“外患”深重，业内对国内市场大规模启动的呼声越来越高。您对国内市场启动有何预期？

The host:"and"ridden,For the domestic market mass start call more and more high.You start to the domestic market what is expected?