国家统计局最新公布的统计数据表明，当前经济仍然在底部运行。8月份，规模以上工业增加值实际同比增长8.9%，比7月份回落0.3个百分点，全国固定资产投资完成额同比增长19.1%，比7月份回落1.28个百分点，社会消费品零售总额同比增长13.2%，比7月份提高0.1个百分点，进出口总值增幅进一步放缓至0.2%，特别是进口同比下降2.6%，比7月份回落7.3个百分点，出口同比增速略回升至2.7%。国内需求特别是投资需求的疲弱是制约8月份经济增长的主要因素。

The national bureau of statistics released the latest statistics show,The current economy is still at the bottom operation.In August,Above designated size industrial added value practical year-on-year growth of 8.9%,A drop of 0.3% than in July,The fixed asset investment amount of complete a year-on-year increase of 19.1%,A drop of 1.28% than in July,Social total retail sales of consumer goods by 13.2% year-on-year growth,More than 0.1% in July,Import and export (GDP) growth slow further to 0.2%,Especially imports fell 2.6% year-on-year,A drop of 7.3% than in July,Exports year-on-year growth slightly back up to 2.7%.Domestic demand especially investment demand weakness is restricted in August main driver of economic growth.

　　尽管最近一段时期中央逐渐加大了稳增长的政策支持力度，但是投资并没有得到明显回升，8月份甚至还略呈回落之势。多位业内人士和机构认为，央行会继续下调存款准备金率释放流动性，但央行迟迟没有动作。

Although a recent period the central gradually increased the steady growth of the policy support,But investment and didn't get rebounded,August were slightly down even the potential.Many insiders and agency said,The central bank will continue to cut the deposit reserve rate release liquidity,But the central bank can not action.

　　此外，部分专家和机构预测今年GDP将很难达标或者勉强达标，一直以来我国都在单纯地追求GDP的增速，但现在则更应该关注背后的就业状况。如果考虑到这一点，那么经济刺激政策就不能局限于投资和出口，而应通过加快结构调整，促进非制造业增长来稳定就业。

In addition,Some experts and institutions forecast this year's GDP will be difficult to standard or barely,Since our country are simply the pursuit of GDP,But now is more should focus on behind the employment status.If have to consider this point,So economic stimulus policy cannot be limited to investment and exports,And should through the speed up structural adjustment,Promote the manufacturing growth to stable employment.

　　出口或将影响就业

Export or will affect the employment

　　7月后，中国出口增速陡然下降，尤其是对欧盟出口同比负增长4.9%，当期对德国、法国和意大利出口增速分别为-7.9%、-8.6%和-26%，欧洲经济衰退对中国经济增长影响开始显现。业内人士认为，如果考虑到中日已经开始的经贸冷战，中国出口形势将更加严峻，全年可能无法完成10%增长目标，而出口下滑直接导致的就是制造业就业形势严峻。

Seven months after,China's export growth sudden drop,Especially for the eu exports fell by 4.9% year-on-year,Current for Germany/France and Italy export growth for - 7.9% respectively/- 8.6% and - 26%,The European economy on China's economic growth influence began to appear.The personage inside course of study thinks,If you consider the sino-japanese economic and trade has already started to the cold war,China's export situation will be more severe,Throughout the year may not be able to complete 10% growth target,And falling exports are a direct result of manufacturing employment situation is severe.

　　天利投资首席投资总监MarkBurgess表示，目前全球经济形势低迷的情况下，中国也难以独善其身。中国经济目前还处于转型过程中，从依赖出口逐渐转向发展内需，但不幸的是，全球经济危机在中国尚未完成转型时来临，目前中国很大一部分产能主要用于出口欧美国家，因此一些中国企业仍受欧美经济危机影响。“QE3的潜在风险，在于其可能会引发通胀，而通胀问题对中国的影响将大于美国和欧洲，如何刺激经济增长和控制通胀是目前中国经济面临的挑战。”

Day the investment chief investment director MarkBurgess said,At present global economic situation under the condition of the downturn,China is also difficult to possess.China's economy is still in a transition process,From dependence on export gradually turned to the development of domestic demand,But unfortunately,The global economic crisis in China has not yet completed the transformation to come,A large part of China productivity are used mainly for exporting to Europe and the United States,So some Chinese enterprises are still the European and American economic crisis."QE3 potential risk,Is that it could trigger inflation,And inflation problem impact to China will be greater than the United States and Europe,How to stimulate economic growth and inflation is the Chinese economy is facing challenges."

　　有专家认为，制造业与非制造业PMI数据对比显示，经济结构调整效果已经出现，因而稳增长政策不能干扰已有的结构调整趋势。目前，对中国经济的理解已经改变，即便关注经济增长数据，也与过去单纯关注GDP不同，其更在意背后的就业状况。如果考虑到这一点，那么经济刺激政策不能局限于投资和出口，而应通过加快结构调整，促进非制造业增长来稳定就业。

Some experts think the,Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data contrast display,The economic structure adjustment effect has appeared,Thus steady growth policy can't interfere with the existing structure adjustment trend.At present,To China's economic understanding has changed,Even if the focus on economic growth data,Also with the past simple focus on different GDP,The more care about behind the employment status.If have to consider this point,So economic stimulus policies cannot be limited to investment and exports,And should through the speed up structural adjustment,Promote the manufacturing growth to stable employment.

　　货币政策面临两难

Monetary policy face a dilemma

　　值得注意的是，包括GDP、进出口总值和PPI等近期诸多经济数据来看，中国经济依然面临较大的下行压力。与此同时，逆回购也逐渐成为8月份央行主要依赖的货币投放工具，这在一定程度上缓解了市场特别是银行间市场短期资金的需求，多个期限的同业拆借利率和银行间质押式回购加权平均利率呈现下降倾向。

It is important to note that,Including GDP/Import and export value and PPI and many recent economic data to see,China's economy is still facing greater downward pressure.meanwhile,Reverse repurchase also gradually become August mainly depends on the central bank monetary on the tool,This, to a certain extent, ease the market especially interbank market short-term capital demand,Multiple deadline interbank lending rates and bank pledged repo between of the weighted average interest rate of present decline tendency.

　　但是，倚重逆回购进行公开市场操作，虽然有利于构建回购利率机制和推进利率市场化进程，也可能有助于降低直接操控货币供应量带来经济过大波动的风险，但不利于尽快降低企业融资成本，因此，这种形式的政策操作可能是无助于启动经济持续回升的，不宜将其作为央行进行货币政策操作的主要工具。

but,Relying heavily on reverse repurchase for open market operation,Although which is favorable to constructing repurchase rate mechanism and promote the interest rate marketization process,May also help reduce direct control money supply bring economic big fluctuation risk,But as soon as possible to reduce the enterprise financing cost,therefore,This form of policy operation may be not start the economy continue to rise,Should not be as a central bank monetary policy operation are the main tools.

　　今年以来，还陆续出台一些调控政策，其中包含了三次降准、两次降息，基础设施投资的步伐再度加快。业内人士认为，2008年中国出台了4万亿经济刺激计划，但政府并没有真正从财政资源上提供帮助，而是通过大量的银行贷款进行助推，导致的结果是中国经济发展对银行过度依赖的情况一直未能有效改善，因此，当前的“稳增长”从融资角度需要的就是提供财政刺激，加大财政支出。

Since this year,Also some of the regulation and control policy comes on stage in succession,It includes three times must fall/Two cuts,Infrastructure investment to speed up the pace of the again.The personage inside course of study thinks,In 2008, China issued a 4 trillion economic stimulus plan,But the government has not really from financial resources to provide help,But through a large number of bank loans to boost,The result of China's economic development is of excessive dependence on the bank of the situation had been unable to effectively improve,therefore,The current"Steady growth"From the perspective of financing needs is to provide fiscal stimulus,Increase the fiscal expenditure.

　　有专家认为，在财政政策力度进一步增强的同时，货币政策力度需谨慎。从国内方面看，据统计局的数据显示，7月份CPI见底后，8月份同比上涨了2.0%，涨幅重新回到“2时代”。未来几个月，CPI仍有上扬压力。

Some experts think the,In the financial policy efforts to further increase at the same time,Monetary policy efforts to be careful.See from domestic aspects,According to the bureau of statistics figures show,In July after CPI see bottom,August were up 2.0% on a year-over-year basis,Or return to"2 times".The next few months,CPI still have higher pressure.

　　从国际方面看，美国推出QE3后，可能会带来包括农产品、国际油价等在内的大宗商品价格应声而涨。中国是大宗商品进口大国，输入型通胀压力会使得国内通胀隐忧更加强烈。中国货币政策既被内部因素绑架又被外部因素干扰，经济难，政策更难。

See from the international aspects,The United States launched after QE3,May cause including agricultural products/International oil prices, commodity prices raised up.China is commodity import country,Imported inflation pressure will make domestic inflation worries more strongly.China's monetary policy had been kidnapped by internal factors and external factors interference,Economic difficult,Policies more difficult to.