近期全球市场总体表现较前稍见改善，但在此际宜保持头脑清醒。这大部分是由欧美货币宽松政策引发的虚火，在表象下实则暗流汹涌，全球的基本财经基调并未有明显改善，相反一些不利的因素正趋恶化，新的风险亦正浮现，故须防出现意料之外的突变，并引发重大的冲击波。

Recent global market overall performance before a slightly see improvement,But in the meantime should keep a clear mind.This is mostly by Europe and the loose monetary policy caused the production of body fluid,In the representation in fact undercurrent surge,Global basic financial fundamental key did not have obviously improved,Instead some adverse factors are to worsen,The new risk also is to emerge,We must prevent appear unexpected mutation,And cause significant shock wave.

　　问题之一是本已疲软的国际贸易形势似正在恶化。稍前世界贸易组织下调了今明两年的外贸增长速度，分别降低约一个百分点到百分二点五及百分四点五，幅度颇大，表示外贸前景较之前的更趋黯淡。尤令人担心者是，全球外贸及经济或正陷入恶性循环中，互相拉低增幅，而这又将引发保护主义行动升温，出现更多的货币战和贸易战事例。最近欧美日等主要发达国相继放宽货币政策，巴西官员便警告新一轮货币战的开始。中国作为贸易大国所受影响尤大。

One of the problems is the already weak international trade situation is deteriorating like.A former world trade organization cut in the next two years of foreign trade growth rate,May decrease about one percent to two point percent and four point percent,Amplitude is quite big,Said foreign trade prospects than previously more hasten is dark.Especially a DanXinZhe is,Global trade and economic or is in vicious cycle,Each other down growth,And it will trigger a protectionism action warming,Appear more currency warfare and trade war examples.Recently, Europe and the United States and other major developed countries successively easing monetary policy,Brazilian officials warned of a new round of currency and the beginning of the war.China as a trade power affected especially big.

　　中国这个世界经济引擎，既受国际不利因素影响，又可反过来成为国际财经风险来源，而最近这方面的恶性互动似正深化。中国的GDP增长下滑未止，第三季料将进一步放慢，能否在末季企稳亦暂难保证。去年中国给世界GDP增长的贡献达三成多，所以中国经济放慢的影响将不小。最直接的是由中国入口放缓带来，而这将严重地冲击两大地区，一是依重资源出口的国家及地区如澳洲、南美等，二是依重工业品尤其资本货品出口的如德、日等国。中日交恶，还增添了地缘政治风险因素，事态如何发展及影响多少，确令人关注，特别要防出现意料之外的突变。

China, the world economic engine,Is influenced by both the international adverse factors,And in turn become international financial risk sources,And recently the malignant interaction like is deepening.China's GDP growth did not stop falling,The third season expected to slow further,At the end of the season can stabilises also temporary difficult to guarantee.Last year China's GDP growth to the world the contribution of more than thirty percent,So China's economy to slow down the influence of the small.The most direct is the slowdown in China's entrance to bring,And this will seriously impact two main areas,One is in accordance with the heavy resources export countries and regions such as Australia/South America, etc,The second is in accordance with the heavy industrial products especially capital goods exports such as Germany/Day and other countries.Sino-japanese bad,Also add to the geopolitical risk factors,Things how to develop and influence,Really attention,Particularly want to prevent appear unexpected mutation.

　　当然，目前情况最为危急的仍是欧洲，危机的冲击浪接浪，一方面财政契约及银行联盟等远景计划难有重大进展，即使有也远水难救近火。另方面希腊及西班牙的问题仍在拖延未决：对希腊应否继续救？西班牙要不要救？然而形势比人强，当欧洲的决策层在犹豫之际，客观情况却不断恶化，且愈来愈复杂，各种社会及政治问题全面深化或开始浮现，令矛盾日趋尖锐。其一是欧猪国的示威、罢工等民间反收紧行动日益激烈，在葡萄牙示威已迫使政府取消了一些改革措施，而西班牙正面临相似的压力。在希腊连军警都上街示威，执政联盟内又因削赤方案难产，而无法与欧盟谈判。收紧政策的风险日益突显。

Of course,Things are the most critical is still European,The impact of the crisis wave after wave,On the one hand the financial contracts and bank alliance, as a prospective plan to have a significant progress,Even if it does, water afar quenches not fire.Another Greek and the problem of Spain is still in the delay pending:Should continue to deliver against Greece?Spain want to save?Conditions, however, strong than man,When European executives in the hesitation,Objective condition was deteriorating,And more and more complex,Various social and political problems comprehensively deepen or began to emerge,Make increasingly acute contradictions.One is the pig countries of the demonstrations/The strike against tightening and other civil action increasingly fierce,In Portugal protest has forced the government to cancel some reform measures,And Spain are facing similar pressure.In Greece police are even demonstration on the streets,Within the ruling coalition and because cut red scheme dystocia,To negotiate with the European Union.The risk of tightening policy has been increasing.

　　更意想不到者是，一个新的裂痕及风险源又已出现：多国内部地区间，及中央与地方间的矛盾激化。故不单欧盟有分裂可能，个别国家的分裂风险亦正上升。其中最明显者是西班牙：最富有的地区加泰罗尼亚於月中曾有百多万人游行示威要求独立，而当地政府又宣布提前大选，并广被视为对独立的变相公投。加泰罗尼亚乃西班牙最富庶及经济最发达地区：GDP占全国约五分之一而相当於葡萄牙。最近求独情绪升温，乃因潜伏多年的历史及文化裂痕，在欧债危机压力下显现。导火线是加泰罗尼亚因经济不佳财政吃紧，要求中央政府援助，而中央却想趁机削减当地的自治权。但当地人认为财政陷困是因向中央上交过多所致，故不单不肯削权，反要寻求独立争权。这样自会打乱了西班牙及欧盟的各自部署，从而干扰了西班牙与欧盟的援助谈判。何况其他如英、意、德等国亦有类似问题，虽无分裂之险，却仍可影响国家对欧盟的政策。

Who is more unexpected,A new crack and risk source and has appeared:Multinational internal regional,And the central and local contradictions between activation.So not only the European Union has split may,Individual countries split risk also is rising.One of the most obvious person is Spanish:The richest region in the Catalan months there have been ten thousand people paraded for independent,And the local government announced an early general election,And widely regarded as the independent disguised referendum.The Catalan is Spain's most rich and the most economically developed area:The GDP accounted for about one 5 and equivalent to Portugal.Recently for emotional temperature alone,But because latent years of history and cultural crack,In the debt crisis appeared under pressure.Fuse is Catalonia because of poor economic finances,Asked the central government aid,And the central but embracing cut local autonomy.But the local people think the financial depression is trapped by the central handed in by too much,So not only would not cut power,But according to seek independent.Since this will upset the Spanish and European Union their deployment,Thus interfere with the Spanish and European Union aid negotiations.How much more will the other such as English/meaning/Germany and other countries also have similar problems,Although no division of risk,Still can affect the country to the eu's policy.

　　显然，新旧难题纠结将令解决更难，欧洲及世界财经的前景也更险。

obviously,New and old problems ravel would solve more difficult,The European and world financial prospects and more risks.