中国对外贸易依然具备内生增长动能，如能实施科学有效的发展战略，推行积极的促进政策，中国对外贸易引领世界贸易的新一轮增长仍是值得期待的。 

China's foreign trade still have endogenous growth kinetic energy,If you can implement scientific and effective development strategy,Implementation of the positive promotion policies,China's foreign trade lead the new round of world trade growth is still worth looking forward to. 

　　日前海关总署公布2012年9月进出口数据，与上月相比，9月进出口在数据上主要呈现三个变化：一是进出口增幅明显高于上月，9月进出口增长6.3%，较上月高出6.1个百分点；二是出口规模创历史新高，9月出口增长9.9%，比上月增加7.2个百分点；三是进口转跌为升，上月进口增幅为-2.6%，而9月进口增长2.4%。

Recently announced the general administration of customs import and export data in September 2012,Compared with last month,September import and export in data mainly presented in three change:One is obviously higher than import and export growth last month,September import and export growth of 6.3%,Is 6.1% higher than last month;The second is a record export scale,September export growth of 9.9%,Increased by 7.2% than last month;3 it is import turn fell to ascending,Last month the import growth was 2.6%,But September imports rose 2.4%.

　　9月进出口明显好于8月有两个主要原因：一是时间节点因素，一般每年的9月都是订单交单较多的月份，市场开始为圣诞节提前布局，因此，9月进出口增幅也较高；二是政策预期因素，美国主导的新一轮量化宽松政策短期内将带动原材料价格上涨和消费需求增加，也会相应推动进出口贸易的活跃。

September import and export significantly better on August has two main reasons:One is the time node factors,General every September is order/p more months,For Christmas market began to advance layout,therefore,September import and export growth is also higher;The second is expected policy factors,The United States led a new round of quantitative easing policy in the short term will drive the raw material prices and consumer demand increase,Will also promote the activity of the corresponding import and export trade.

　　中国对外贸易增长动能依然强劲

China's foreign trade growth kinetic energy is still strong

　　仅从单月数据的变化还难以判定我国进出口是否出现趋势性的变化和逆转，但总体来看，前三季度我国进出口贸易呈现出三个明显亮点，即一般贸易增速快于加工贸易，与新兴市场贸易优于传统市场，中西部地区和民营企业成为新增长点，这三大亮点已经成为未来几年中国对外贸易的总体发展趋势。

Only from monthly performance data changes in our country is difficult to determine whether there will be a trend of import and export of change and reverse,But overall,The first three quarters import and export trade in our country present three obvious window,That is the general trade growth faster than processing trade,And emerging market trade is better than traditional market,The Midwest and private enterprises become the new growth point,The three big window has become the next few years China's foreign trade in the overall development trends.

　　一般贸易增速快于加工贸易。金融危机以来，我国一般贸易进出口增速普遍高于加工贸易，一般贸易占我国进出口比重节节攀升。2012年前三季度，我国进出口总额3450.3亿美元，同比增长6.3%，其中一般贸易进出口14989.7亿美元，同比增长5.9%，较加工贸易增速快3.7个百分点。截止到2012年9月，一般贸易占我国进出口贸易的57.1%，较上年同期高出4.2个百分点，而加工贸易占我国进出口贸易的比重则降至34.5%，较上年同期减少1.4个百分点。

General trade growth faster than processing trade.Since the financial crisis,China's general trade import and export growth is commonly higher than processing trade,General trade in our country the proportion of import and export of climbing.The third quarter 2012 years ago,Total volume of import and export of $345.03 billion in our country,Year-on-year growth of 6.3%,General trade import and export $1.49897 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 5.9%,A processing trade 3.7% faster.By the end of September 2012,General trade accounts for 57.1% of the import and export trade in our country,A 4.2% higher than the same period last year,And processing trade accounts for the proportion of import and export trade in our country was reduced to 34.5%,Over the same period decreased by 1.4%.

　　我国属于工业化中期国家，提高自主创新水平是这一阶段经济发展的关键，一般贸易反映了一个国家自主品牌产品出口能力和创新水平，一般贸易进出口的扩大，既是我国经济发展阶段的需要，也是提振我国对外贸易信心的积极因素。但值得注意的是，我国一般贸易与加工贸易呈现的是此消彼长的态势，制造业仍是中国的主导产业，尽管成本上涨等因素导致加工贸易的发展优势减弱，但发展加工贸易有利于巩固全球制造业中心地位，提升中国工业化发展水平，应避免以一般贸易取代加工贸易的发展理念，形成一般贸易和加工贸易双轮驱动型发展模式。

Our country belongs to the industrialization in the middle of the country,Improving self-directed innovation level is this one phase the key to economic development,General trade reflects a national independent brand products export capacity and level of innovation,General trade import and export expansion,China's economic development is not only the needs of the stage,China's foreign trade is also boost the confidence of the positive factors.But it is important to note that,China's general trade and processing trade appears is characterised by the situation,Manufacturing is still China's leading industry,Despite the rising cost factors lead to the development of the processing trade advantage weaken,But the development of processing trade is helpful to consolidate the global manufacturing center position,Enhance the industrial development level,Should avoid to replace general trade processing trade development concept,Form the general trade and processing trade double drive type development pattern.

　　与新兴市场贸易优于传统市场。从与主要贸易伙伴的进出口情况来看，前三季度，除了欧盟、日本和印度外，与其他贸易伙伴的进出口皆为正增长，与美国进出口总额增长9.1%，与加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰进出口分别增长8.7%、7.5%和13.5%。与新兴市场也保持了较好的增长势头，与东盟、俄罗斯、巴西进出口分别增长8.1%、14.2%和5%，增速最高的为南非，增长37.1%。

And emerging market trade is better than traditional market.With its major trading partners from the import and export situation,The first three quarters,In addition to the European Union/Outside Japan and India,And other trading partners are positive growth of import and export,And the United States the total import and export growth of 9.1%,And Canada/Australia and New Zealand import and export growth of 8.7%, respectively/7.5% and 13.5%.And emerging market is also maintained a good growth momentum,And asean/Russia/Brazilian import and export growth of 8.1%, respectively/14.2% and 5%,The highest growth for South Africa,Growth of 37.1%.

　　欧盟和日本分别为我国第一和第四大贸易伙伴，与这两大市场贸易的下降直接影响了2012年以来我国进出口贸易的增长。前三季度，我国对欧盟和日本进出口金额分别减少2.7%和1.8%，欧盟和日本分别占我国对外进出口总值的14.5%和8.8%，仅这两大市场就下拉我国进出口增幅约0.5个百分点。虽然欧盟和日本都将跟随美国推动新一轮量化宽松政策，但由于欧债危机升级的隐患仍未消除，日本经济衰退导致国内需求减弱，加之“钓鱼岛事件”，使得中日矛盾尖锐，未来一段时间，企业会减少对这些市场的布局，中国对欧盟和日本的贸易仍将持续减少，其拖累效应使得我国对外贸易短期内很难实现大幅的增长。

The European Union and Japan were the first and fourth largest trading partner,And the two big market trade has a direct effect on the decline in China since 2012 has the growth of import and export trade.The first three quarters,Our country to the European Union and Japan import and export amount reduced by 2.7% and 1.8% respectively,The European Union and Japan accounted for 14.5% of the total foreign import and export in our country and 8.8%,Only the two big market pull down our country import and export increase about 0.5%.Although the European Union and Japan will follow the United States to promote a new round of quantitative easing policy,But as a result of the debt crisis is still not eliminate the hidden trouble of the upgrade,The Japanese economy recession lead to domestic demand weakened,Together with"Diaoyu islands events",Make the contradictions sharp,The next period of time,Enterprise will reduce the layout of these markets,The European Union and Japan's trade will continue to reduce,The drag effect makes China's foreign trade in the short term it is difficult to realize sharp growth.

　　中西部地区和民营企业成为新增长点。2012年以来，虽然我国进出口贸易一直呈现低速增长态势，但中西部地区的强劲增长则成为鼓舞市场的一大亮点。前三季度，重庆出口增速为1.5倍，河南、四川和江西的出口增速分别为62.8%、42.8%和39.1%。

The Midwest and private enterprises become the new growth point.Since 2012,Although our country's import and export trade has been present low growth situation,But the Midwest strong growth becomes inspired market a major bright spot.The first three quarters,Chongqing export growth is 1.5 times,henan/Sichuan and jiangxi export growth was 62.8%/42.8% and 39.1%.

　　从1~8月的数据来看，进出口增幅最高的省市分别为西藏（183.1%）、重庆（132.9%）、河南（64.3%）、贵州（40.8%）、四川（31.4%）、安徽（26.5%）、江西（24.9%）和云南（22.4%）。

From 1 ~ 8 month of data to see,Import and export growth of the highest provinces and cities for Tibet respectively(183.1%)/chongqing(132.9%)/henan(64.3%)/guizhou(40.8%)/sichuan(31.4%)/anhui(26.5%)/jiangxi(24.9%)And yunnan(22.4%).

　　此外，民营企业的活跃也成为我国对外贸易的另一个增长亮点。前三季度，民营企业（包括集体、私营企业及其他企业）进出口8779.7亿美元，增长18.8%，高出我国外贸总体增速12.6个百分点，其中对出口增量的贡献率为85.4%，拉动出口增量6.1个百分点；对进口增量的贡献为78.6%，拉动进口增量4.1个百分点。

In addition,The private enterprise active also become our country foreign trade another growth window.The first three quarters,Private enterprises(Including collective/Private enterprises and other enterprises)Import and export of $877.97 billion,Growth of 18.8%,Our country foreign trade more than 12.6% overall growth,Among of which accounted for 85.4% of China's export increment,Pull the export increment of 6.1%;To import incremental contribution of 78.6%,Pull the import increment of 4.1%.

　　前三季度，民营企业占我国进出口总额的比重已由上年同期的27.6%上升至30.9%，提高3.3个百分点。中西部省市的群体性崛起、民营企业的迅速成长已经成为中国对外贸易的新增长点。

The first three quarters,Private enterprises accounted for the proportion of the total import and export volume in China has been developed from the same period last year of 27.6% to 30.9%,Increased by 3.3%.The western provinces and cities group rise/Rapid growth of the private enterprise has become the new growth point of China's foreign trade.

　　以“三个转变”和“三个突破”应对国际市场变化

to"Three transformation"and"Three breakthroughs"To deal with the international market change

　　上述三个趋势说明中国对外贸易依然具备内生增长动能，如能实施科学有效的发展战略，推行积极的促进政策，中国对外贸易引领世界贸易的新一轮增长是值得期待的。

The above three trend that China's foreign trade still have endogenous growth kinetic energy,If you can implement scientific and effective development strategy,Implementation of the positive promotion policies,China's foreign trade lead the new round of world trade growth is worth looking forward to.

　　把握中国外贸发展的战略机遇期。9月份美国供应商管理协会发布的制造业采购经理指数（PMI）大幅回升至51.5，结束了此前连续3个月低于“50荣枯线”的不景气状态，预示着美国采取第三轮量化宽松政策在短期内会刺激经济复苏，预计从2012年末到2013年，我国对外贸易的外部环境会相应有所改善。但由于刺激政策并没有从根本上解决美国经济及发达国家经济本身存在的结构性问题，美国以金融货币掌控全球的理念也未见改善，在刺激政策效应发挥完毕后，世界经济仍有可能陷入新一轮衰退，由外需主导的我国对外贸易仍存在较大的压力。

Master Chinese foreign trade development period of strategic opportunities.In September the supplier management association issued manufacturing purchasing managers index(PMI)Rebound sharply to 51.5,Over the previous three consecutive months below"50 vicissitude line"State of recession,Presupposes the United States to be the third wheel quantitative easing policy in the short term will stimulate economic recovery,Expected from the end of 2012 to 2013,China's foreign trade of the external environment will be improved accordingly.But as a result of stimulus policy did not fundamentally solve the U.S. economy and developed countries economy itself exists structural problems,The United States financial currency to control the global idea also did not see improvement,In the stimulus policy effect after the play,The world economy is still might fall into a new round of recession,Now by the leading China's foreign trade is still there is greater pressure.

　　其实，发达国家的调整期也是我们的战略机遇期，中国外贸发展需顺应市场的规律，在市场调整期，要避免在数据变化上做文章，以长远的眼光来谋划当前的对外贸易发展战略，集聚发展的内生动力，推进对外贸易结构的调整和转型。

In fact,The developed countries period of adjustment is also our period of strategic opportunities,China's foreign trade development need to conform to the market rule,In the market adjustment phase,To avoid in data change fuss,With a long-term vision to plan the current foreign trade development strategy,Cluster development of endogenous power,Promote foreign trade structure adjustment and transformation.

　　保持对外贸易战略和政策的稳定。9月以来，我国已出台了多项措施推动对外贸易发展，国务院办公厅正式下发《关于促进外贸增长若干意见》，提出了八项举措；海关总署发布了16项措施促进外贸稳定增长；财政部和国家发改委联合发布规定，取消海关监管手续费；国家质检总局公布免收第四季度法定出入境检验检疫费用等。这些措施在一定程度上稳定了市场信心。

To keep foreign trade strategy and policy stability.Since September,China has issued a number of measures to promote the development of foreign trade,Issued by the general office of the state council formally[Several opinions about promoting foreign trade growth],Puts forward eight measures;The customs general administration issued a 16 measures to promote the steady growth of foreign trade;The ministry of finance and the state development and reform commission jointly issued regulations,Cancellation of customs supervision charges;State general administration of quality supervision announced in the fourth quarter will be exempted from legal entry and exit inspection and quarantine expenses, etc.These measures in a certain extent, stable market confidence.

　　然而，短期政策的密集发布往往会适得其反，因为政策的不稳定和对新政策的预期会使企业难以确定新的投资和布局。政策的作用更多地在于预期性和方向性，在世界经济的下行期，积极的促进政策固然必然，但稳定、长效的对外贸易发展战略和政策可以给企业以明确的预期，更有助于企业的转型和布局。

however,Short-term policy issued by intensive counter-productive,Because of the unstable and policy to the new policy is expected to make the enterprise is difficult to determine the new investment and layout.The role of the policy is expected more sex and directivity,In the world economy next date of departure,Actively promote the policy is inevitable,But stable/Long-term foreign trade development strategy and policy can give enterprise in order to make clear expectations,The more help to enterprise's transformation and layout.

　　努力实现“三个转变”和“三个突破”。无论从理论层面还是从现实层面来看，当前，中国对外贸易还是要尊重市场发展的客观规律，要力争做到“三个转变”，即推动对外贸易由政府主导为主向市场和政府共同发挥作用转变；由量能扩张型发展模式向质量效应型发展模式转变；由依靠传统成本优势向培育综合要素优势转变。

Makes great efforts to realize the"Three transformation"and"Three breakthroughs".No matter from the theoretical level or from a practical level,The current,China's foreign trade or to respect the objective law of the development of the market,To strive to accomplish"Three transformation",That is to promote foreign trade mainly by the government leading to the market and the government a joint role transformation;The quantity can expanding development pattern to the mass effect type development model transformation;By relying on traditional cost advantage to cultivate comprehensive elements advantage transformation.

　　尤其在三个方面要尽可能实现一些突破：一是将对数据和数量的考核转向对质量和能力的考核；二是制定与建设创新性国家相适应的进出口战略；三是形成贸易与产业相协调的对外贸易政策体系。

Especially in three aspects as far as possible to achieve some breakthrough:One is to put the data and number of appraisal to the quality and ability of the assessment;The second is the construction of innovative country formulation and adapt to the import and export strategy;Three is to form the coordination of trade and industry of the foreign trade policy system.

　　若能实现这“三个转变”和“三个突破”，中国对外贸易就能以“三变”应万变，不管国际市场如何变化，拥有符合市场需求、顺应时代发展、重质量、守信用的中国对外贸易一定可以在国际市场获得更加稳健、持续、长足的发展。

If you can achieve this"Three transformation"and"Three breakthroughs",China's foreign trade can be"Three changes"Should changing,No matter how the international market change,Meet with market demand/Conform to the development of The Times/Heavy quality/Keep promise of China's foreign trade in the international market will get more robust/continuous/Considerable development.

　　（作者系商务部研究院外贸所外贸战略部副主任）

(The author is the ministry of commerce by institute of foreign trade strategy, deputy director of the foreign trade)