摘要：九月钢材出口意外惊喜 四季度行情将何去何从

the:September steel export surprise Four quarter market to be

　　三季度钢材出口量在九月份意外带来惊喜，扭转整个三季度疲乏态势，同时，今年前3季度，我国进出口总值28424.7亿美元，同比增长6.2%，这一数值距离全年外贸10%的增长目标还有一段差距，因此，四季度面临的外贸出口任务较大。在国内稳外贸、优化外贸结构的“国八条”加码政策出台以及较大的出口目标任务下，四季度外贸出口进入“冲刺”阶段，钢材出口也有望继续走高。但是面临的欧美经济复苏的乏力以及亚洲新兴经济体制造业的疲软，四季度钢材出口整体喜忧参半。

In the third quarter steel exports in September brings accident surprise,Turn the entire third quarter fatigue situation,At the same time,In the first three quarters of this year,China import and export (GDP) of us $2.84247 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 6.2%,The numerical distance annual foreign trade 10% growth target and a gap,therefore,Four quarter face foreign trade export large task.Stability in the domestic foreign trade/Optimize the structure of foreign trade"Eight countries"Pyramid policies and greater export target under the task,Four quarter foreign trade export into"sprint"stage,Steel exports is expected to continue to go up.But the face of Europe and the United States economic recovery weakness and emerging Asia manufacturing weakness,Four quarter steel export overall mixed.

　　据海关最新统计，9月份我国钢材出口大幅回升。9月份出口钢材515万吨，环比增长21.5%，同比增长22.3%，1-9月累计出口量为4094万吨，同比增长10.2%。9月份我国进口钢材120万吨，较8月份持平，同比下降9.77%。1至9月份我国累计进口钢材1052万吨，同比下降12%。9月份我国钢材净出口395万吨，创自2010年7月份以来的新高。9月份我国钢材出口单价884.4美元/吨，环比下降76美元。（如下图所示）

According to the latest statistics,In September, China steel exports rebound sharply.September export steel 5.15 million tons,Link growth of 21.5%,Year-on-year growth of 22.3%,1-9 month accumulative total exports for 40.94 million tons,Year-on-year growth of 10.2%.In September, China imported steel 1.2 million tons,Is equal in August,9.77% year-on-year drop.From January to September of our country accumulated imported steel 10.52 million tons,12% year-on-year drop.In September, China steel net export 3.95 million tons,And since 2010 record high since July.In September, China steel export price $884.4 / ton,Link a $76 drop in.(As below)

　　我国钢材月度进出口量走势图

China steel monthly into exports simulations

　　1、钢材产量表观消费量处近半年多来次低位出口分流能力提升

1/Steel production apparent consumption place more than half year to time low export shunt to enhance the ability

　　与中钢协公布的国内粗钢旬产持续下降不同，国家统计局公布的9月份粗钢日产仍旧维持在190万吨以上，为193.17万吨，9月份钢材产量则为8044万吨，环比增加163.5万吨。

And steel association published domestic crude steel production different ten-day continued to decline,National bureau of statistics released in September crude steel nissan still maintained at 1.9 million tons,For 1.9317 million tons,September steel production is 80.44 million tons,Link an increase of 1.635 million tons.

　　而出口环比增加91万吨，进口持平。整个9月份，国内钢材表观消费量为7649万吨，环比增加72.5万吨，但仍处于自3月份以来的次低位，且9月份钢材出口占钢材产量的比重则创年内高位6%。三季度里7月和8月份出口量分别占钢材产量5.5%和5.4%。年内出口比重最低在2月份，占钢材产量仅为4.8%。9月份出口明显提升了国内钢材资源的分流能力。

And export link an increase of 910000 tons,Import flat.The September,Domestic steel apparent consumption for 76.49 million tons,Link an increase of 725000 tons,But is still in the time since since march low,And in September steel exports accounted for the proportion of steel production, and high years 6%.In the third quarter on July and August exports steel production accounted for 5.5% and 5.4%.Years minimum export proportion in February,Steel production accounted for only 4.8%.September export obviously improve the domestic steel resources shunt ability.

　　2、我国钢材出口价格优势依旧明显将支撑钢出口

2/China steel export price advantage is still obvious will support steel export

　　从9月份各国的出口报价来看，中国各钢材品种无论是市场报价还是出口报价均处于明显的价格优势。以板材为例，9月3日，美国进口热轧板卷价格为678美元/吨（CIF），欧盟进口价为629美元（CFR），韩国市场中国资源的报价为670美元，日本出口的报价为610美元/吨，还是FOB价。独联体出口的报价为555美元，也是FOB价。而中国出口热卷的报价则为520美元/吨，FOB价。而到9月底，上述的价格分别对应为678美元、654美元、645美元、600美元、550美元、515美元。我国热轧卷的出口始终具备价格优势。同样地，冷轧板卷、中厚板、热镀锌等钢产品，我国出口价格同样具有明显的出口优势。

From September countries export quotation to see,Chinese each steel varieties whether the market price or export quotations are in clear price advantage.Sheet as an example,September 3,The United States imported hot rolled plate roll price for 678 dollars/tons(CIF),The European Union imports for 629 dollars(CFR),South Korea market China resources offer for 670 dollars,Japan's export quotation for 610 dollars/tons,Or us your price on FOB basis.Commonwealth of independent states export quotation for 555 dollars,Is us your price on FOB basis.And China's export hot roll price is $520 / ton,Us your price on FOB basis.By the end of September,The above price corresponding for 678 dollars/654 dollars/645 dollars/600 dollars/550 dollars/515 dollars.Our country hot roll export always has price advantage.similarly,Cold rolled steel/Medium thickness plate/Hot dip galvanized steel products, etc,Our export prices are also has the obvious export advantage.

　　虽然受我国国内调控政策加码刺激，国内钢价迎来大涨行情，钢厂出口的报价也随之上调。从10月份最新的数据来看，截至到10月17日，我国热轧板卷出口报价上升至540美元（FOB），较9月底上涨了25美元、冷轧板卷出口报价上涨20美元、热镀锌板上涨15美元、中厚板上涨20美元、螺纹钢和线材均下降20美元。而沙钢12月份的发货基价则上调25-45美元，热卷含硼料出口560美元，中厚板含硼料545美元，船板基价575美元，均为FOB价。即便按照沙钢12月份涨后的价格与当前国际市场各国出口价格和进口中国资源的报价相比，中国资源仍旧具有明显的价格优势。这将是后期钢材出口量能够维持相对水平的主因。

Although influenced by our country in domestic regulation policy extra stimulus,Domestic steel prices rose in price,Steel export quotation will be raised.The latest data from October to see,By October 17,,Our country hot rolled plate roll export price rose to $540 m(FOB),Is the end of September rose $25/Cold rolled steel export price rose $20/Hot galvanized steel sheet up $15/Medium thickness plate up $20/Rebar and wire rod decreased $20.And shazhousteel December delivery base price increase is 25 - $45,Hot roll boron material export $560,Medium thickness plate boron material $545,Is presented.the basic pay $575,Are us your price on FOB basis.Even if according to whom December rise after the price and the current international market countries export prices and imported to China resources than the quotation,China resources still have clear price advantage.It will be late steel exports to maintain relative level of primary.

　　3、国内外主要出口国PMI景气指数回升乏力

3/A major exporter at home and abroad PMI boom index rebounded lack of power

　　随着欧美央行流通资金的开闸放水，市场对于全球大宗商品集体走高预期较强，而各国制造业的景气指数也有差异，其中美国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西等国显现企稳回升迹象。然而欧洲各国表现仍旧疲弱，而亚洲其他新兴经济体数据表现也较一般。

With Europe and the United States central bank capital circulation of sluice,The market for global commodities collective go high expected stronger,But countries manufacturing boom index are also different,One of the American/India/Russia/Countries such as Brazil appeared signs of stabilising picks up.But European countries still weak performance,And other Asian emerging economies also relatively general performance data.

　　首先，9月中国制造业PMI指数由49.2%上升至49.8%，虽仍处于荣枯线以下，但这是其5个月以来首现回升。而据兰格钢铁网发布的我国钢铁流通业PMI指数则已进入扩张区间，是自今年4月份以来，该指数首次进入扩张区间，环比上升7.6个百分点至53.2%。

First of all,September, China manufacturing PMI index rose from 49.2% to 49.8%,Although still in the vicissitude line,But this is the five months since the first now picks up.And according to Lange steel net released by the China iron and steel circulation industry PMI index has into the expansion interval,Since this year since April,The index is the first to enter the extension interval,Link rise 7.6% to 53.2%.

　　9月份美国ISM PMI指数由8月份的49.6%回升至51.5%，扭转之前连续三个月跌破50%分界线的趋势，显示美国制造业重新出现扩张。

In September the ISM PMI index by 49.6% in August back up to 51.5%,Three consecutive months before twisting fell below 50% for the trend of the line,Have shown that the United States manufacturing reoccur expansion.

　　不过，欧元区表现疲弱。欧元区9 月制造业PMI 为46.1%，环比上升1.0%，为近6个月的高点，但却连续第14 个月位于50%以下，表示欧元区制造业状况低迷态势虽有所缓和，但整体尚未进入恢复期。其中德国、意大利和西班牙都是今年2 月以来最疲弱表现，而法国PMI更是降至降至3 年半来最低。欧元区制造业的疲弱局面也使得我国三季度钢材对欧盟各国出口量下降最为突出。相较于4、5月份的高位，我国三季度出口欧盟的量缩水近半。

but,The eurozone weak.Eurozone 9 Manufacturing PMI. Is 46.1%,Link up 1.0%,For nearly six months high,But continuous 14 Months is located in below 50%,Said the eurozone manufacturing condition downturn situation is abated somewhat,But overall is not yet in convalescence.The German/Italy and Spain are 2 this year Since the month weak performance,And the French PMI fell to drop to 3 Year and a half to the lowest.The eurozone manufacturing the weak situation also makes our country third quarter steel exports to the European Union countries down the most outstanding.Compared with 4/High in May,The third quarter in China export quantity of the European Union shrunk nearly half.

　　英国制造PMI从8月的49.5%回落至48.4%，连续5个月运行在50%以下。俄罗斯制造业PMI由8月份51.0%回升至52.4%，生产和新订单均有上升，且新订单连续是十二个月保持增长。巴西制造业PMI为49.8%,较上月小幅回升0.6个百分点，连续六个月低于50%，生产活动略有上升、新订单小幅下滑。

British manufacturing PMI from August dropped back to 48.4% 49.5%,Continuous five months running under 50%.Russia manufacturing PMI in August by 51.0% back up to 52.4%,The production and new orders are rising,And the new order continuous were twelve months keep growth.Brazil manufacturing PMI is 49.8%,A small rebound 0.6% last month,Six months less than 50%,The production activities increased slightly/New orders fall modestly.

　　再来看下我们近几年的主要出口市场亚洲各国。

Again we see the main export markets in Asia.

　　日本经季调后的9月份制造业PMI为48.0%，较8月份回升0.3个百分点，连续第四个月低于50%；韩国制造业经季节调整的汇丰9月PMI指数由8月的47.5跌至45.71，连续第四个月萎缩,且萎缩速度为2009年初以来最快。印度9月份制造业PMI达到52.8%，与上月持平，新订单连续第四个月保持增长，新出口订单三个月以来首次出现增长。（具体看下表）

Japan the season after adjustment of manufacturing PMI in September to 48.0%,A 0.3% rally in August,For the fourth consecutive months less than 50%;South Korea manufacturing the season adjustment HSBC September PMI index by August dropped to 47.5 45.71,For the fourth consecutive months atrophy,And shrinking rate of 2009 since the beginning of the fastest.India September manufacturing PMI reached 52.8%,And previous month,New orders for the fourth consecutive months keep growth,New export orders for the first time since three months have risen.(Specific see the table below)

　　表1  全球各国制造业9月PMI景气指数一览

Table 1  The global manufacturing PMI boom index in September

　　国家 9月PMI（%） 

countries September PMI(%) 

　　中国 49.8% 环比上升0.6% 5个月来首现回升 

China 49.8% Link up 0.6% Five months to first now picks up 

　　美国 51.5% 环比上升1.9% 扭转连续3月低于50% 

The United States 51.5% Link up 1.9% Torsional three consecutive months less than 50% 

　　俄罗斯 52.4% 环比上升1.4% 其中新订单连续是十二个月保持增长 

Russia 52.4% Link up 1.4% The new order continuous were twelve months keep growth 

　　巴西 49.8% 环比回升0.6% 连续六个月低于50% 

Brazil 49.8% Link picks up 0.6% Six months less than 50% 

　　欧元区 46.1% 环比上升1% 连续第14 个月位于50%以下 

eurozone 46.1% Link up 1% Continuous 14 Months is located in below 50% 

　　英国 48.4% 环比回落1.1% 连续5个月运行在50%以下 

British 48.4% Link a drop of 1.1% Continuous five months running under 50% 

　　日本 48% 环比回升0.3% 连续第四个月低于50% 

Japan 48% Link picks up 0.3% For the fourth consecutive months less than 50% 

　　韩国 45.71% 环比回落1.79% 2009年2月以来最低 

South Korea 45.71% Link a drop of 1.79% Since February 2009 the lowest 

　　印度 52.8% 持平 新订单连续第四个月保持增长 

India 52.8% flat New orders for the fourth consecutive months keep growth 

　　总得来看，虽然全球流通资金泛滥，除美国以外，各主要经济体大多面临输入性通胀的压力。而我国稳外贸“国八条”也给予四季度较大的期盼与压力，但是全球主要经济体实体经济的复苏仍显疲乏，尤其近年我国出口逐步向亚洲等新兴经济体转变，从上述亚洲主要地区制造业的景气指数来看，我国钢材出口在奔目标、冲刺中，仍存隐忧。

Must come to see,Although the global currency flood,Except outside the United States,The major economies are mostly face input sex inflationary pressure.But our country foreign trade stability"Eight countries"Also gives four quarter bigger look forward and pressure,But one of the world's major economies entity economic recovery still show fatigue,Especially in recent years, our export gradually to Asia and other emerging economies transformation,From the above major Asian area manufacturing boom index to see,China steel export during the running of the target/Sprint in,Still save worry.

　　来源:兰格 【查看评论】 【推

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