受益于国务院和相关部门密集出台多项“促外贸、稳增长”政策措施，9月份外贸同比、环比增速均较上月回升，当月进出口总额和出口总额双双创历史新高。一些先行指标显示，外贸经营将低位趋稳，预计四季度出口仍将保持温和增长。

Benefit from the state council and the relevant departments on a number of intensive"Promote foreign trade/Steady growth"Policy measures,September foreign trade up/Link growth than picks up last month,The total value of import and export and export amount both a record.Some leading indicators show,Foreign trade business will be low stabilised,The fourth quarter is expected to export will still maintain a moderate growth.

　　第四季度外贸发展面临的内外部环境依然复杂严峻。当前，世界经济复苏动力仍显不足，制造业持续萎缩，全球制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)连续四个月低于50%。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测2012年世界经济增长3.3%，低于2011年的3.8%。其中，发达国家增长1.3%，低于上年0.3个百分点；新兴市场和发展中国家增长5.3%，低于上年0.9个百分点。欧元区经济将出现衰退，金砖国家俄罗斯、中国、印度、巴西和南非增长率均将低于2011年。未来一段时间内，外部需求下降态势难有根本性转变，国际产业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦持续升级，外贸发展的外部环境复杂严峻。从国内情况看，国内经济下行压力依然较大，劳动力和土地等要素成本不断上升，第四季度进出口增长依然面临较大困难。

The fourth quarter of the foreign trade development faced with internal and external environment is still complicated severe.The current,The world economic recovery power it still shows insufficient,Manufacturing continuous atrophy,Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index(PMI)For four consecutive months less than 50%.The international monetary fund(IMF)Forecast 2012 world economic growth of 3.3%,Less than 3.8% in 2011.the,The developed countries increased by 1.3%,Less than 0.3% last year;Emerging markets and developing countries increased by 5.3%,Less than 0.9% last year.The economy of the euro area will appear a recession,Nuggets country Russia/China/India/Brazil and South Africa growth rate are to be lower than in 2011.The next period of time,External demand decline situation difficult to have a fundamental change,International industry competition,Trade friction continuous upgrade,The development of foreign trade of external environment complicated severe.From domestic situation to see,The domestic economy is still greater downward pressure,Labour and land elements such as rising costs,The fourth quarter import and export growth is still confronted with difficulties.

　　同时也要看到，国内外环境中出现一些积极变化。美国房地产市场出现复苏迹象，9月份美国失业率为7.8%，为2009年1月以来最低。主要经济体相继出台量化宽松政策，短期内起到压低国债收益率、降低债务成本、稳定市场的作用，为低迷经济注入流动性和活力，有望对世界经济复苏起到一定支撑作用。中国国内经济低位企稳。9月我国制造业PMI为49.8%，比上月回升0.6个百分点，逼近50%的荣枯分水岭，为今年5月以来的首次回升。新订单指数为49.8%，比上月回升1.1个百分点，表明制造业来自客户的产品订货量降幅明显收窄。其中，新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为48.8%和47.7%，比上月回升2.2和0.7个百分点，预示未来出口可能有所好转。反映我国消费品市场和出口情况的“义乌小商品景气指数”9月已回到指数基点1000上方，景气指数见好表明外贸经营将低位趋稳。总体而言，预计四季度出口仍将保持温和增长。

At the same time also want to see,The domestic and foreign environment appeared in some positive changes.The United States real estate market appeared signs of recovery,The unemployment rate to 7.8% in September,For 2009 years the lowest since January.Major economies have issued quantitative easing policy,In the short term play down bond yields/Reduce debt cost/The role of the market stable,To inject liquidity into the economic downturn and vigor,To the world economic recovery is expected to play a supporting role.China's domestic economic low stabilises.September Chinese manufacturing PMI is 49.8%,More than 0.6% rally last month,Approaching 50% of vicissitude watershed,For this year for the first time since may rebound.New orders index is 49.8%,More than 1.1% rally last month,Show that manufacturing from customers by product quantity obviously narrow.the,New export orders index and import index were 48.8% and 47.7% respectively,Last month than rebounded 2.2 and 0.7%,Predict the future export may be better.Reflect our country consumer goods market and export situation"Yiwu small commodity boom index"September has returned to index basis points above 1000,Boom index get better show that foreign trade business will be low stabilised.In general,The fourth quarter is expected to export will still maintain a moderate growth.

　　另外，前期稳增长政策措施在第四季度将陆续落实到位并发挥作用，自10月1日起取消海关监管手续费，免收第四季度所有法定检验检疫物出入境检验检疫费。这对于缓解当前外贸遇到的困难，提振中小企业信心，促使外贸逐步回稳将起到积极作用。加上去年同期基数较低，四季度外贸有望延续9月份的回升态势并实现小幅反弹。

In addition,The steady growth in the fourth quarter will be policy measures were put in place and play a role,Since October 1 cancel of customs supervision charges,From the fourth quarter all legal inspection and quarantine objects entry and exit inspection and quarantine fee.This to alleviate the current foreign trade difficulties,Boost the confidence of small and medium enterprises,Make foreign trade gradually recovered will play a positive role.With the same period last year a low base,The fourth quarter is expected to continue foreign trade in September picks up situation and realize the small rebound.

　　综合考虑以上因素，预计第四季度出口增速或个位数趋稳。随着四季度国内经济增速筑底企稳，我国进口需求将逐渐回暖。国家扩大进口政策措施的逐步落实，国际市场大宗商品价格回涨，也将推动进口增长，预计未来几个月进口增速将小幅回升，今年全年外贸顺差仍将维持在较高水平。

Comprehensive consideration of the above factors,The fourth quarter is expected to export growth or singly stabilised.Along with the fourth quarter growth of domestic economy building bottom stabilises,Import demand in China will gradually warmer.Countries to expand import policy measures to gradually implement,The international market HuiZhang commodity prices,Import growth will also push,The expected future months import growth will rebound slightly,This year the foreign trade surplus will remain at high levels.

　　当前外贸企业的主要问题是传统市场空间缩小和盈利空间压缩。企业要在逆境中求生存，生存中谋发展必须要提高产品附加值和增强竞争力，建议政府有关部门保持外贸政策的稳定性和连续性，为企业发展创造良好的内外部环境。

The current foreign trade enterprise's main problem is the traditional market space narrow and profit space compressed.Enterprise to survive in adversity,Survival in seeks the development must improve product added value and competitiveness,Suggestions relevant government departments to keep foreign trade policy stability and continuity,For enterprise development to create a good internal and external environment.

　　首先，抓紧落实国务院关于促进外贸稳定增长若干意见所涉及的相关措施。外贸企业企盼各项政策全面、完整落实。政策落地时应根据实际情况进行相应微调，未来还应继续出台一些有利于中小外贸企业发展的政策。

First of all,To implement the state council on promoting the steady growth of foreign trade involved several opinions of the relevant measures.Foreign trade enterprise policies for comprehensive/Complete implement.Policy landing should be based on actual situation, make corresponding adjustment,The future should also continue to come to some small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprise development policy.

　　其次，继续加大外贸转型升级支持力度。要着力扶植高成长性企业，创造有利环境支持企业调结构和转方式，调动企业内生的增长动能，提高企业开拓国际市场的能力。

secondly,Continue to increase the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade support.We should focus on fostering high growth enterprise,To create favorable environment to support enterprise adjustable structure and turn way,Mobilize enterprise endogenous growth kinetic energy,To improve the ability of enterprise expand the international market.

　　第三，研究进一步扩大开放，鼓励先进技术设备进口的政策。目前机电产品和高新技术产品进口增速虽然有所回升但仍为金融危机以来最低区间，利用外资连续10个月负增长或接近零增长，后劲令人堪忧。要扭转这一颓势，必须深入研究新形势下在更高水平上深化改革、扩大开放，积极合理有效利用外资，重点增加进口先进技术设备、关键零部件。□商务部研究院对外贸易研究所 肖新艳

The third,To further expand the opening of the research,To encourage the advanced technology and equipment import policy.At present mechanical and electrical products and new high-tech product import growth although have rebounded but still for since the financial crisis the minimum interval,The use of foreign capital for 10 months negative growth or close to zero growth,Stamina worrying.To reverse this flagging,We should deeply research under the new situation in the higher level of deepening reform/Opening up,Positive rational and effective use of foreign capital,Key increase import advanced technology and equipment/Key parts.- the ministry of commerce research institute of foreign trade XiaoXinYan