海关总署近日统计，今年前三季度，我国进出口总额达到28425亿美元，同比增长6.2%，增速比上半年回落1.8个百分点，比上年同期回落18.4个百分点。其中，出口14954亿美元，增长7.4%；进口13471亿美元，增长4.8%。

Recently, the general administration of customs statistics,The first three quarters of this year,Total volume of imports and exports reached $2.8425 trillion in China,Year-on-year growth of 6.2%,Growth than the first half a drop of 1.8%,Than the same period last year dropped 18.4%.the,Export $1.4954 trillion,Growth of 7.4%;Imported 1.3471 trillion us dollars,Growth of 4.8%.

　　另据统计，9月份进出口总值为3450.3亿美元，增长6.3%。其中，出口1863.5亿美元，增长9.9%；进口1586.8亿美元，增长2.4%。如何解读分析前三季度的进出口数据，并预计今后一段时间的外贸走势？记者对国务院发展研究中心对外经济研究部研究员张丽平进行了专访。

Another according to the statistics,September import and export value is 345.03 billion dollars,Growth of 6.3%.the,Export $186.35 billion,Growth of 9.9%;Imported 158.68 billion us dollars,Growth of 2.4%.How to interpret the analysis in the third quarter before the import and export data,And in the future is expected to a period of foreign trade trends?Reporter to the state council development research center, foreign economic research ZhangLiPing researcher at the interview.

　　中国经济时报：相比起8月份，9月份进、出口增速出现一定的弱势反弹，单月出口规模创历史新高，主要是哪些因素导致？是否预示了我国对外贸易已经出现低位企稳的迹象？

China economic times:Compared with the August,September into/Export growth appears the certain weak rebound,The export scale month a record,What are the main causes?Indicates whether China's foreign trade has appeared low signs of stabilising?

　　张丽平：导致9月份出口回暖的主要因素在于三个：一是圣诞节因素。往常，圣诞节因素多在7、8月份发挥作用，但今年欧美经济复苏乏力，我国出口中短单增多，圣诞节因素的影响到9月份才开始加大。

ZhangLiPing:Lead to September export warms up in the key factor in three:A is Christmas factors.usual,Christmas in 7 factors/August play a role,But this year the Europe and the United States economic recovery lack of power,Our export increased short list,Christmas factors affect the September began to increase.

　　二是欧美宽松货币政策，尤其是美国QE3对消费者信心的提振。欧洲央行9月6日推出新的救市计划，即“直接货币交易”（OMT）方案；9月14日美联储推出QE3，将以每月400亿美元的速度购买机构抵押贷款支持债券?穴MBS?雪，同时将超低利率（0—0.25%）期限延长至2015年中期，继续进行买短卖长的“扭转操作”；9月19日，日本央行公布增加资产购买规模10万亿日元，将抵押品支持的市场操作规模增加至80万亿日元，同时维持0—0.1%超低利率不变。

The second is Europe and the United States loose monetary policy,Especially the United States QE3 to consumer confidence boost.The European central bank on September 6, new rescue the city plan,namely"Direct currency trading"(OMT)scheme;On September 14, the federal reserve QE3 launch,Will the speed of $40 billion a month to buy mortgage-backed bonds institutions?Hole MBS?snow,At the same time will be ultra-low interest rates(0-0.25%)To extend to the middle of 2015,Continue to buy short sell long"Torsional operation";On September 19,Japan by the central bank increased asset purchase scale 10 trillion yen,Will collateral support market operation scale increased to 80 trillion yen,At the same time maintain 0-0.1% ultra-low interest rates unchanged.

　　三是一些占全球市场份额比较大的电子新品集中上市，包括IPhone5、Galaxy note II等。

Three are some share of global market share larger electronic product concentration listed,Including IPhone5/Galaxy Note II, etc.

　　这些因素还将持续一段时间，有助于我国企业稳定在国际市场上的份额。

These factors will continue for a period of time,Help to our country enterprise stability in the international market share.

　　中国经济时报：虽然出口在温和反弹，但进口还是在低位徘徊，贸易顺差在进一步扩大。请您分析一下各自的因素都有哪些？

China economic times:Although exports in the warm rebound,But import or in the low end,The trade surplus in the further.Please analyse their respective factors what are the?

　　张丽平：进口增幅持续保持低位，除了由于国内经济调整造成的需求放缓外，价格因素的作用不容忽视。今年我国进口价格指数持续走低，8月份仅为95.8。虽然8月进口增长为负，但数量上增长了1.7%。

ZhangLiPing:Import growth continued low,Except for the adjustment of the domestic economy caused by the slowdown in demand,The role of price factors can not be ignored.This year our country import price index falling,August was only 95.8.Although August import growth is negative,But the quantity increased by 1.7%.

　　中国经济时报：短期看内外经济仍在底部徘徊，但一般第四季度海外订单都会有所增加，能否预计一下四季度和全年的进出口走势？前三季度，进出口同比增长6.2%，增速比上半年回落1.8个百分点，全年10%的既定目标能否实现？

China economic times:The short run inside and outside the economy is still in the bottom wandering,But generally the fourth quarter overseas orders will be increased,Whether it is expected to four quarter and the full year trend of import and export?The first three quarters,Import and export year-on-year growth of 6.2%,Growth than the first half a drop of 1.8%,The 10% of the established target can be realized?

　　张丽平：总体上看，外贸全年实现10%增长的困难非常大。如果要实现该增长，第四季度累计出口要完成5830亿美元，进口5700多亿美元，出口累计增幅17%，进口24%。综合考虑各种因素的影响，今年出口增长在8%左右，进口增长在6%左右，贸易顺差超过2000亿美元。

ZhangLiPing:In general speaking,Foreign trade throughout the year to 10% growth difficulty is very big.If we are to achieve the growth,The fourth quarter cumulative export to complete 583 billion dollars,Import more than $5700,Export total 17%,Import 24%.Considering the influence of various factors,Export growth at around 8% this year,Import growth at around 6%,The trade surplus more than 200 billion dollars.