刚刚闭幕的第112届广交会二期相关数据显示，本届到会采购商总数为147732人，比上届同期166707人减少11.38%。广交会问卷调查显示，仅有两成左右的企业反映第四季度订单增长。

Just closing the 112th Canton fair two phase correlation data display,The purchaser to a total of 147732 people,During the same period last year more than 166707 people reduced by 11.38%.The China export commodities fair questionnaire survey,Only twenty percent of enterprise reflects the fourth quarter growth order.

　　众所周知，广交会是中国外贸的 “晴雨表”，秋交会的成交情况直接影响到当年第四季度以及第二年上半年的外贸情况。广交会的交易情况给正在回升的进出口泼了一盆冷水，市场关心刚刚有起色的出口增长能否持续。国金证券(600109,股吧)宏观经济分析师刘峰认为，9月份进出口增长一定程度上透支了10月份外贸额，预计10月出口增速再度滑落至8%，进口增速小幅回升至3.4%，贸易顺差250亿美元。

As is known to all,Canton fair is the China's foreign trade "barometer",Autumn intersection clinch a deal directly affect the situation in the fourth quarter and the first half of the second year foreign trade situation.The China export commodities fair trade is picking up to the import and export pours cold water,Market concern just better export growth can be sustained.Countries gold securities(600109,guba)Macroeconomic analysts think qiao,September import and export growth to a certain extent, its overdrawn in October,October is expected to export growth slid to 8% again,Import growth small back up to 3.4%,The trade surplus of $25 billion.

　　刘峰表示，判断10月出口下滑的依据有两个：一是欧美航线高峰已过，目前只剩澳洲航线，而近期BDI指数虽有所回升但仍处于较低水平，因此外需依然疲弱，出口增速下滑是大趋势。二是，近期人民币汇率大幅走强，历史上看曾经有过汇率升值导致短期集中提前出口的现象，若结合经济基本面疲弱，出口趋势性下滑的概率较大。

Qiao said,Judgment on the basis of 10 export decline, there are two:One is to Europe and the United States route peak has passed,At present there are only Australia route,And the recent BDI index is recovered but is still in a low level,Therefore overseas market demand remains weak,Falling export growth is big trend.The second is,Recently the RMB exchange rate significantly stronger,Historically there have been exchange rate appreciation lead to short-term focus in advance the phenomenon of export,If combined with weak economic fundamentals,Export decline trend of large probability.

　　日信证券首席策略分析师徐海洋认为，9月份进出口增速回升幅度显著高于预期，但是海外需求的季节性扩张是出口增速回升的主要原因。一般而言，9、10月份是欧美商家为圣诞长假准备商品的季节，出口增速本身比其他月份要高，但是随着这一因素的消除，预计11、12月份出口增速将再度下滑。记者 李宇欣

Day letter securities chief strategy analyst XuHaiYang think,In September of import and export growth rebounded significantly higher than expected,But overseas demand seasonal expansion is the main reason for the rebound export growth.Generally speaking,9/October is Europe and the United States merchants for the Christmas holiday season to goods,Export growth itself than any other month to high,But as the factor to eliminate,11 is expected to/December export growth will decline again.reporter gray