2012年秋季广交会于11月4日在广州闭幕。在全球经济复苏乏力、“欧债危机”阴霾未散、中日钓鱼岛领土争端以及中国自身经济转型的多重背景下，本次广交会到会采购商总数比上届下降10.3%；出口成交326.8亿美元，同比下降9.3%，其中对欧洲市场的成交额下降10.5%，对美国出口成交下降9.4%，对日本出口成交下降36.6%。分商品来看，非生活必需品成交下降明显，机电商品、服装、毛绒玩具等整体下降约20%；生活必需品成交呈现小幅增长。具体分析成交订单的国家来源方向和产品类型，主要呈现了三个特点。其一，传统的欧美和日本等发达国家市场的订单业务萎靡不振，但南美、中东和非洲等新兴市场却蒸蒸日上、表现良好。其二，传统的劳动密集型加工产品订单大幅下滑，但创新、品牌产品的成交却逆势增长。其三，传统的产品出口订单明显减少，但技术、流水线甚至整个生产设备出口的交易攀升。

In the fall of 2012 Canton fair on November 4, in guangzhou closing.In the global economic recovery lack of power/"The debt crisis"Haze not scattered/The diaoyu islands territorial disputes and China's economic transformation of the multiple background,The Canton fair to the total number of buyers than last year dropped 10.3%;Export $32.68 billion to clinch a deal,9.3% year-on-year drop,Among the European market turnover fell by 10.5%,Exports to the United States fell 9.4% to clinch a deal,Clinch a deal on Japanese exports fell 36.6%.Points goods to see,The necessaries of life clinch a deal down significantly,Mechanical and electrical goods/clothing/Plush toys etc whole down about 20%;The necessities of life on a small increase clinch a deal.Concrete analysis to clinch a deal order countries source direction and product types,Mainly presents three characteristics.one,The traditional Europe and the United States and Japan and other developed countries market order business cachexia,But South America/The Middle East and Africa, and other emerging market but progresses day by day/well.The second,The traditional labor-intensive processing product orders fell sharply,But innovation/Brand products to clinch a deal but contrarian growth.thirdly,The traditional product export orders significantly reduced,But the technology/Even the entire assembly line production equipment export trading up.

　　广交会一向被称为中国外贸的“晴雨表”和“风向标”，从本次广交会的形势看，2013年中国外贸的整体形势不容乐观，但仍有其发展的特点和增长的亮点。

The China export commodities fair has always been known as the Chinese foreign trade"barometer"and"vane",From the Canton fair situation to see,In 2013, the Chinese foreign trade of the whole situation is not optimistic,But still has its development characteristics and growth of the window.

　　第一，出口高速增长的时代或将一去不复返。

The first,Export growth times or would not return.

　　全球金融危机和“欧债危机”将世界经济拖入低增长时代，美国和欧盟的进口需求难以为继，而中日钓鱼岛领土争端将冲击双边贸易；在中国主要出口贸易伙伴纷纷“重返实业”，对华贸易摩擦和争端络绎不绝的情形下，“中国制造”会不可避免地遭遇外需负面冲击和挑战。另一方面，中国国内经济正处转型的十字路口，劳动力成本和商务运营成本的大幅上涨已经导致传统劳动密集型产品的出口竞争力逐步下降，加工贸易和依靠低廉劳动力成本获得优势的“中国制造”面临巨大挑战，已有一部分的加工贸易外资企业撤离中国。国内外的背景和发展的形势决定了，中国外贸高速增长的黄金时代将一去不复返。提升贸易质量和效益、寻找外贸新的增长点应成为中国未来对外贸易发展的方向。

The global financial crisis and"The debt crisis"Will the world economy into low growth age,The United States and the European Union's import demand unsustainable,And the diaoyu islands territorial disputes will impact the bilateral trade;In China's main export trade partner in succession"Return to industrial",China trade frictions and disputes in an endless stream cases,"Made in China"Will inevitably encounter overseas market demand negative impact and challenges.On the other hand,China's domestic economy are the crossroads of transformation,Labor cost and business operation cost rise considerably has led to the traditional labor-intensive products export competitiveness step down,Processing trade and rely on cheap labor costs to advantage"Made in China"Are faced with great challenges,Processing trade has been part of the foreign capital enterprise leave China.Domestic and international background and situation of the development of the decision,China's foreign trade growth golden era will be gone.Improve the quality and efficiency of trade/Looking for foreign trade new growth point should be China's future in the direction of the development of foreign trade.

　　第二，企稳回升态势已渐趋明朗。

The second,Stabilises picks up situation has gradually clear.

　　2013年中国对外贸易的整体形势虽然不容乐观，但企稳回升的态势明朗。今年9月份的对外贸易数据已经初步显现了这一趋势，进出口贸易总值增长6.3%，出口增长9.9%，创单月出口规模新高，进口增长2.4%。

In 2013, the Chinese foreign trade overall situation although not optimistic,But stabilises picks up the situation clear.In September this year's foreign trade data has initially revealed the trend,Import and export trade gross domestic product growth of 6.3%,Export growth of 9.9%,And export scale month high,Imports rose 2.4%.

　　支撑明年出口贸易增长的利好因素主要有三个方面。其一，欧美发达经济体正逐步从危机中恢复，美国经济的增长前景向好，欧债危机也在稳步化解。主要贸易伙伴经济形势的好转会在一定程度上提升对“中国制造”的需求。其二，中国与新兴经济体的合作加强，相互贸易往来正稳步增加。其三，近期颁布的稳定出口贸易政策，包括出口退税程序简化和贸易便利化措施有利于中国对外贸易的发展，政策的促进效应会逐步显现。其四，政治的稳定和宽松货币政策有利于中国出口贸易的发展。2012年可谓是全球大选年，2013年新一届政府的上台通常会有更多的经济刺激政策，且更加稳定的政治环境对于全球贸易的增长也是有利的。同时，近期美国量化宽松以及主要发达经济体的宽松货币政策效应会在2013年逐步显现，也将在一定程度上利好中国对外出口。

Support export trade growth next year the good factors are three aspects.one,Europe and the United States developed economies is gradually recover from the crisis,Growth in the us is going well,The debt crisis is steadily resolve.Main trade partners for the improvement of the economic situation in a certain extent of ascension"Made in China"demand.The second,China and emerging economies to strengthen cooperation,Mutual trade is steadily increasing.thirdly,Recently issued stable export trade policy,Including export tax refund procedures simplified and trade facilitation measures conducive to the development of China's foreign trade,Policy promote the effect will gradually appear.its,Political stability and loose monetary policy is beneficial to the development of China's export trade.In 2012, it may be said is the election year,In 2013 the new government onstage will usually have more economic stimulus policies,And more stable political environment for global trade growth is favorable.At the same time,A recent American quantitative easing and major developed economies of the loose monetary policy effect will gradually appear in 2013,Also will be in a certain extent bullish Chinese foreign export.

　　第三，新兴市场将成出口的新亮点。

The third,Emerging market exports will be new luminescent spot.

　　中国和新兴市场国家的经济贸易合作与交流在近年取得了很快的发展，双边和多边贸易一体化进程加快，相互之间的贸易增长喜人。从刚刚公布的9月份贸易数据看，中国对新兴经济体，如俄罗斯、马来西亚、菲律宾等的出口快速增长。本次广交会上，俄罗斯、巴西等金砖国家的风头几乎盖过了欧美市场。新兴市场正在日益成为中国出口贸易增长的新亮点，促进和扩大对新兴市场国家的贸易是未来对外贸易的一个重要方向。

China and emerging market countries of the economic and trade cooperation and exchanges in recent years has made fast development,Bilateral and multilateral trade integration process to speed up,Mutual trade growth gratifying.Just released in September from the trade figures,China's emerging economies,Such as Russia/Malaysia/The export of the Philippines and rapid growth.The guangzhou commodities fair on,Russia/Brazil nuggets countries show almost cover the European and American market.Emerging markets are increasingly become China's export trade growth new luminescent spot,Promote and expand in emerging market countries trade is the future foreign trade an important direction.

　　第四，对发达经济体出口将逐步回暖。

The fourth,Exports to developed economies will gradually warmer.

　　欧盟和美国是中国最主要的贸易伙伴。从目前的形势看，中国对美国的出口随着美国经济的复苏已经在逐步回升；但对欧盟出口由于受到欧债危机的影响，下降幅度较大且下滑明显。当前欧债危机正在逐步走向缓和，随着欧洲经济逐步走出阴霾，可能会在一定程度上有利于中国出口贸易的发展。因此，2013年中国对发达经济体的出口预计将逐步回暖。

The European Union and the United States is China's most important trade partner.From the current situation to see,China's exports to America as the U.S. economic recovery has been gradually picks up;But for the eu exports due to the influence of European debt crisis,Down to a larger extent and obviously decline.The current European debt crisis is gradually to ease,With the European economy gradually come out of the haze,May in a certain extent, is conducive to the development of China's export trade.therefore,In 2013, China has developed economies export is expected to gradually warmer.

　　第五，自主品牌产品的出口比重会不断增加。

The fifth,The independent brand products export proportion will increase.

　　扩大自主品牌产品出口是未来中国对外贸易质量提升和转型的重要方面。贴牌生产和加工贸易产品的附加值低、贸易利益微薄，但却占据了我国出口贸易的半壁江山，随着我国劳动力成本的提升，已逐步丧失竞争力而不可持续。未来中国对外贸易发展的方向主要在于增加自主品牌产品的出口。

Expand the independent brand products export is the future China foreign trade quality promotion and transformation of the important aspect.OEM production and processing trade of products low added value/Trade interests low,But occupied our export trade deodorants,With China's labor cost of ascension,Has gradually lost competitiveness and unsustainable.China's future development of foreign trade in the direction of the independent brand products mainly depends on the increase of export.

　　从近几个月以来的中国海关进出口贸易统计数据看，加工贸易产品出口持续下滑，但一般贸易却一直保持较快增长，自主品牌出口的比重已经在逐渐提高。从这次广交会的情况看，创新、品牌产品成交量的逆势上涨是一大亮点。根据五矿化工商会的调查，采购商对品牌展区精品较青睐，总成交3.71亿美元，比上届同期高21.6%；同时，高附加值产品也是成交的主力。再以格力电器为例，虽然这次广交会整体冷清，但其成交额近3亿美元，较上届同期增长约20%，展出的几乎全是当前最高端的创新产品。这说明，中国具有自主品牌的创新型产品出口具有发展潜力。

From the past few months China's customs import and export trade statistics to see,Processing trade products are exported to continue to decline,But general trade has been kept growing rapidly,The independent brand exports have been gradually improve.From the view of the China export commodities fair,innovation/Brand product volume contrarian rise is a big luminescent spot.According to the investigation of the chamber of commerce of metals and chemicals,Purchaser on brand high-quality goods exhibition a favour,Total $371 million to clinch a deal,More than the same period last year 21.6% higher;At the same time,High added value product also is the main clinch a deal.Then the gree electric appliances, for example,Although the Canton fair whole cold and cheerless,But the turnover of nearly $300 million,Compared with last about a 20% increase over the same period,Almost all of the exhibition is currently the highest innovative products.This shows,China has the independent brand of innovative product export has the development potential.

　　第六，贸易结构调整和升级将渐进有序开展。

The sixth,Trade adjustment and upgrading of the structure will be gradual and orderly development.

　　中国的出口贸易结构已经到了不得不调整和升级的阶段。2013年以及未来的结构调整主要在以下几个方面：首先，在一般贸易和加工贸易上，加工贸易产品的竞争力逐步下降，一般贸易比重会稳定上升，一般贸易产品出口是发展的重点和方向。其次，在一般贸易产品上，低附加值的劳动密集型产品出口将逐步减少，高附加值的资本和技术密集型产品出口将不断增加。再次，在对外贸易地理方向上，对发达国家的出口仍然是主要方向，但对新兴市场以及发展中国家的出口亦会逐步增加。

China's export trade structure has come to have to the adjustment and upgrading of the stage.2013 and the future structure adjustment mainly in the following respects:First of all,In the general trade and processing trade,Processing trade the competitiveness of their products step down,The proportion of general trade will be stable rise,General trade products export is the focus and direction of the development.secondly,In the general trade products,Low value-added labor-intensive products exports will gradually decrease,High value-added capital and technology intensive products export will continue to increase.again,In foreign trade geography direction,In the developed countries, the export is still the main direction,But to emerging markets and developing countries export will also gradually increase.

　　（作者系中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员、博士） 

(The author system by the Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at research assistant/doctor)