2012年是中国外贸发展十分艰难的一年。由于欧债危机持续升级，全球经济复苏乏力，新兴经济体增长放缓，美国经济也出现减速迹象，整个外部经济环境不断恶化。在国内，因内需疲弱、制造业低迷、投资收缩、产能过剩，以及政府宏观政策调控等一系列原因，经济增速趋缓。受此影响，今年的外贸进口形势整体收缩。

2012 is the Chinese foreign trade development is very difficult year in.Due to the continual upgrading of the debt crisis,The global economic recovery lack of power,Emerging economies' growth,The economy also appeared signs of slowdown,The external economic environment is deteriorating.In the domestic,Because of weak domestic demand/Manufacturing industry downturn/Investment contraction/Excess capacity,And the government macroeconomic policy and a series of reasons,Economic growth slowed.Affected by this,This year's foreign trade import situation overall contraction.

　　前三季度外贸进口情况

The first three quarters of imports of foreign trade

　　今年以来，中国货物贸易进口虽然继续保持增长，但增速出现较快回落，1-9月进口总值达到13471亿美元，同比增长4.8%，增速明显低于去年26.7%水平。特别是最近两个月，进口增速急剧下滑，8月份进口值同比下降2.6%，9月份的进口增幅也只有2.4%，明显低于上半年的增长水平。

Since this year,China's trade in goods import although continue to maintain growth,But growth appear quickly dropped,1-9 month total imported us $1.3471 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 4.8%,Growth was significantly lower than the 26.7% level last year.Especially in the last two months,Import growth decline sharply,August but imports jumped 2.6% year-on-year drop,In September, the import growth also only 2.4%,Obviously lower than that of the first half of the growth level.

　　从进口的区域看，今年我国东部沿海地区受外部经济冲击较大，进口呈现低速增长，广东、江苏、浙江、山东等经济大省进口增速大幅回落，整个东部地区1-9月的进口增幅低于全国的平均水平。中西部地区进口增长相对较快，1-9月进口额比去年同期上升9%，其中河南、广西、云南、重庆的进口额比去年同期增长30%以上，显示加工贸易有进一步向中西部转移的迹象。

From the inlet area to see,This year China Eastern coastal areas to external economic impact,Import present low speed growth,guangdong/jiangsu/zhejiang/Shandong economic province imports dropped sharply,Across the eastern 1-9 months of import growth below the national average.The Midwest import growth relatively fast,1-9 month imports up 9% more than the same period last year,The henan/guangxi/yunnan/Chongqing's imports than last year the corresponding period grows 30%,Display processing trade to the Midwest have further signs of transfer.

　　从进口的来源看，由于欧洲经济陷入衰退，今年前3季度我国来自欧盟的进口增速大幅度缩减，从去年的增长27.5%降至2.1%，来自日本的进口也明显下降，比去年同期减少6.5%，来自东盟和韩国的进口微增0.6%和1.5%。相比之下，来自美国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、巴西的进口增长较快，分别比去年同期上升7.7%、6.1%、13.9%和6.1%。

From the source of imports to see,Since the European economy into a recession,In the first three quarters of this year from the European Union imports in China greatly reduced,From last year's growth of 27.5% to 2.1%,Import from Japan also drops apparently,6.5% lower than the same period last year,From asean and South Korea imported micro increased by 0.6% and 1.5%.Compared with,From the United States/Australia/Russia/Brazilian imports is growing rapidly,Respectively increased by 7.7% than the same period last year/6.1%/13.9% and 6.1%.

　　从进口的商品结构看，今年1-9月我国矿产资源商品进口量升价跌，其中铁矿石进口5.5亿吨，增加8.4%，进口价下跌18.6%；能源类商品进口量价齐升，原油进口2亿吨，增加6.4%，进口价上涨6.3%；农产品(行情 股吧 资金流)进口量大幅度增加，其中大豆进口4430万吨，比去年同期增长17.7%。另外，多数工业原料进口量和进口额均有所收缩，如钢材、钢坯、合成橡胶、树脂、合成纤维等，机电产品进口比去年同期增长2.7%，其中汽车进口增长23.7%，金属加工机床进口降7.3%。

From import commodity structure to see,1 - September this year China mineral resources commodity imports rise price falls,The iron ore import 550 million tons,Increased by 8.4%,Imports fell 18.6%;Energy merchandise imports JiSheng price,Crude oil import 200 million tons,Increased by 6.4%,Imports rose 6.3%;Agricultural products(market guba Cash flow)Imports increased significantly,The soybean import 44.3 million tons,Than last year the corresponding period grows 17.7%.In addition,Most industrial raw material imports and amount of imports are shrink,Such as steel/billet/Synthetic rubber/resin/Synthetic fibre, etc,Import of mechanical and electronic products than last year the corresponding period grows 2.7%,The car imports rose 23.7%,Metal processing machine imports fell 7.3%.

　　影响进口的主要因素

The main factors of influence import

　　国内经济增速放缓、有效需求不足

Domestic economic growth is slowing/Insufficient effective demand

　　今年以来，国内投资、消费增速下滑，经济增长明显放缓。一季度GDP增速从去年四季度的8.9%降至8.1%，二季度下滑至7.6%，三季度进一步降至7.4%，创三年来新低。

Since this year,Domestic investment/Consumption growth decline,Economic growth slowed down obviously.GDP growth in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of last year to 8.9%,The second quarter to 7.6%,Third quarter further reduced from 7.4% to,Gen three year low.

　　国家统计局发布的数据显示，2012年1-9月份，全国固定资产投资256933亿元，同比名义增长20.5%，增速比去年同期回落了4.4个百分点，全国社会消费品零售总额149422亿元，同比增长14.1%，也低于去年同期17%的增长水平。

The national bureau of statistics data released by the display,2012 1-9 months,The investment in the fixed assets 25.6933 trillion yuan,Growth of 20.5% year-on-year name,Growth fell by 4.4% than the same period last year,The national social total retail sales of consumer goods is 14.9422 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 14.1%,Also lower than the same period last year 17% of the growth level.

　　今年5月开始，我国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)连续4个月下滑，9月份PMI虽略有回升，但仍低于荣枯线以下。在非制造业领域，建筑业的商务活动和新订单指数也有所回落，8月份建筑业新订单指数55.3%，比7月下降1.7个百分点，1-8月我国房地产企业房屋新开工面积比去年同期减少6.8%。所有这些都导致今年中国的内需十分疲弱，对工业原料、工业制成品乃至重要机电设备进口产生了直接的影响。

In may this year began to,Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers' index(PMI)For four months glide,September PMI is slightly rebounded,But it is still less than the vicissitude line.In the manufacturing field,Construction of business activities and new orders index also somewhat fall after a rise,August construction new orders index 55.3%,July than 1.7% decline,1-8 months China's real estate enterprise building new commenced area 6.8% lower than the same period last year.All these lead to this year China's domestic demand is very weak,For industrial raw material/Manufactured goods and important electrical equipment import produce a direct effect.

　　加工贸易出口增长乏力、利用外资下降，对进口的拉动作用减弱

Processing trade export growth lack of power/The use of foreign capital decline,To import role in boosting abate

　　今年1-9月，我国外贸出口增速比去年同期下降了15.3个百分点，其中加工贸易出口比去年同期仅增长3%，致使用于出口的零部件及原料进口需求持续走弱。1-9月我国加工贸易进口增速仅为0.9%，8月份加工贸易进口增速还出现了负增长，同比下降1.4%。

1 - September this year,Our country foreign trade export growth was 15.3% lower than the same period last year,The processing trade exports than the same period last year rose by only 3%,The used for export of parts and raw materials import demand continued weak.1-9 months of China's processing trade imports is only 0.9%,August processing trade import growth appeared negative growth,1.4% year-on-year drop.

　　与此同时，今年我国利用外资也出现负增长。1-8月我国新批设立外商投资企业15777家，同比下降12.4%；实际使用外资金额749.9亿美元，同比下降3.4%。利用外资的下降使相关进口大幅度减少，特别是在加工贸易领域，外商投资面向国际市场的加工出口贸易的减少，直接导致原料进口的下降。今年1-8月，我国与外国投资相关的进口比去年同期仅增长1.1%，明显低于上一年12.6%的增长水平，与外商投资相关的出口增长3.2%，比上一年回落了15.7个百分点。

meanwhile,This year China fdi utilization also appear negative growth.1-8 month the country's new group to establish a foreign-funded enterprise 15777,12.4% year-on-year drop;The actual use of foreign investment of 74.99 billion us dollars,3.4% year-on-year drop.The use of foreign capital the fall in the relevant import are greatly reduced,Especially in the field of processing trade,Foreign investment face the international market to reduce the processing of export trade,Led directly to the raw materials import decline.First eight months of this year,Our country and foreign investment related import than the same period last year rose by only 1.1%,Obviously lower than the previous year 12.6% growth level,And foreign investment related export growth of 3.2%,Fell by 15.7% in the previous year.

　　国际大宗商品市场低迷，进口价格下滑

International commodities market downturn,Import prices decline

　　2012年，由于欧洲债务危机持续发酵、全球经济增速放缓、需求低迷，国际商品市场价格比上一年有所回落。截至2012年9月，全球初级产品价格指数(IMF)比年初下跌0.7%，比去年同期下跌0.8%，其中，能源类商品同比上升3.4%，金属类商品同比下降19.7%，工业用农业原料同比下降17.2%。

In 2012,,Since the European debt crisis continuous fermentation/The global economic growth is slowing/Demand downturn,International commodity market price is higher than the previous year down from their recent highs.By September 2012,Global primary products price index(IMF)At the beginning of more than 0.7% decline,Than the same period last year fell 0.8%,the,Energy goods rose 3.4% year-on-year,Metal goods fell 19.7% year-on-year,Industrial agriculture raw material 17.2% year-on-year drop.

　　受此影响，今年我国大部分资源性产品及原料产品进口价格普遍下跌，铁矿石、钢材、铜材、铝材、废铜、氧化铝、天然橡胶、初级形态的塑料、纸浆价格分别下降18.6%、4.8%、12.4%、20.3%、12%、14.2%、29.6%、5.9%、20.6%。

Affected by this,This year our country most of the resource products and raw material product import prices generally fell,Iron ore/steel/copper/aluminum/Copper scrap/alumina/Natural rubber/The primary form of plastic/Pulp prices were down by 18.6%/4.8%/12.4%/20.3%/12%/14.2%/29.6%/5.9%/20.6%.

　　农产品除大豆之外，玉米、小麦、糖、棉花1-8月的进口价格分别比去年同期下降2.4%、11.5%、13.2%、22.4%。这对进口额的增长也有一定负面的影响。

Except outside of agricultural products of soybean,corn/wheat/sugar/Cotton 1-8 months of import prices were 2.4% lower than the same period last year/11.5%/13.2%/22.4%.The import growth also to have certain negative influence.

　　外贸进口存在的问题

Foreign trade import problems

　　国内外价差造成某些商品出现进口虚假繁荣

The price at home and abroad caused by certain commodities import appear false prosperity

　　今年以来，尽管国内外市场需求疲弱、价格普遍走低，但有些商品的国际市场价格比国内降幅更大，与国内相比形成可观的价差，吸引众多贸易商投机囤货、大量进口，造成一些行业进口的虚假繁荣。

Since this year,Despite the weak market demand at home and abroad/Prices generally lower,But some goods international market prices fell by a large domestic,Compared with domestic considerable price formation,Attract many traders speculative stockpile/Import a lot of,Some industry caused by imported false prosperity.

　　1-8月，中国煤炭、氧化铝、铝材、棉花、食糖的进口量同比增长46.3%、191.8%、37.8%、122.7%和102%，增幅都大大超过上一年的水平。这些商品的进口激增的一个共同原因就是国内外价差存在很大的套利空间。以煤炭为例，今年5月初，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤现货价大约为每吨100美元，而同期我国环渤海地区港口动力煤综合平均价为每吨780元人民币左右，国内外价差大约每吨150元。5月份国内棉花现货价每吨19000元左右，而当月的棉花进口成本每吨只有14500元人民币。

1-8 months,China coal/alumina/aluminum/cotton/The import volume of sugar a year-on-year increase of 46.3%/191.8%/37.8%/122.7% and 102%,Increase greatly than that of the previous year level.The goods of imports surged a common reason is that the price at home and abroad have a lot of arbitrage space.With coal as an example,This year early may,Australia Newcastle port power coal spot price is about $100 per ton,Over the same period, the round-bohai-sea region of port power coal comprehensive middle rate for RMB 780 per ton,The price at home and abroad about $150 per ton.May the domestic cotton spot price 19000 yuan per ton,And the month of cotton import costs per ton only 14500 yuan RMB.

　　低价的原料进口给国内市场带来冲击，使原本已经疲弱的国内市场陷入更大的困境。企业库存积压、销售不畅，经济效益受到严重影响，同时它也抑制了农民的种植积极性。而这其中最值得注意的是，有些商品的国内外价差是由于政府收储行为本身造成。2012年为了稳定市场，保护农民的利益，国家再次启动棉花收储政策，提高棉花收购价格，由此带动国内棉价整体上涨，使国内外价差拉大，给投机商创造获利机会，最终损害了国内棉花市场的发展。

Low cost raw materials imported for the domestic market impact,Make originally has weak domestic markets into more trouble.Enterprise inventory backlog/Dull sale,Economic benefits have been affected,At the same time it also inhibit the peasants' enthusiasm for planting.And this one of the most notable is,Some commodity price at home and abroad is due to the government collection and storage behavior caused by itself.In 2012, in order to stabilize the market,To protect the interests of farmers,Country again start cotton collection and storage policy,Improve cotton purchasing price,Thus provide a boost to the domestic MianJia overall rise,Make the price gap at home and abroad,To speculators create profit opportunities,Eventually damages the domestic cotton the development of the market.

　　融资需求刺激一些商品进口增加，给市场带来负面压力

Financing demand stimulus some goods import increase,To market with negative pressure

　　2012年在工业需求疲弱、资源性商品进口量值增速普遍收缩的大背景下，我国铜进口仍呈现较快增长。1-9月未锻造的铜及铜材进口量增长32.6%，而去年同期铜材的进口量是-17.9%的增长。

2012 in industrial demand weakness/Commodity import value growth universal contraction of the background,Copper imports in China is still present a fast growth.1-9 months not forging copper and copper imports increased by 32.6%,And the same period last year the copper imports is - 17.9% growth.

　　导致铜进口大幅增长的原因不是工业生产需求，而是它的融资功能。今年以来，由于国家采取紧缩的货币政策，银行信贷收紧，企业特别是中小企业很难从正规渠道获得融资。为求生存，一些企业借用进口铜的远期信用证，从银行获取低息贷款，有些企业甚至直接将铜抵押给不同的银行，以换取更多现金。而这些贷款来的资金大多并未用于生产和经营，主要在其他领域进行短期投资套利，如进入民间借贷市场、房地产市场、资本市场等。这种做法不仅扰乱了正常的生产、贸易秩序，也给国内铜市场造成供应过剩的压力，导致铜库存增加，同时又使外界误以为中国实际铜需求增加。而实际上，从去年年底开始，中国铜的下游需求同比下降了三分之一。

Lead to copper import growth reason not industrial production requirements,But its financing function.Since this year,Because of the nation to take tight monetary policy,Bank credit tightening,Enterprises especially small and medium-sized enterprises from the regular channel is difficult to obtain financing.For the sake of survival,Some companies use import copper usance l/c,From the bank for low-interest loans,Some companies even directly will copper mortgage to different bank,In exchange for more cash.And these loans to fund mostly did not for the production and management,Mainly in the other areas for short term investment arbitrage,If enters in folk loan market/Real estate market/Capital market.This approach not only disturbed the normal production/Trade order,Also give the domestic copper market supply caused by excess pressure,Lead to copper stock increase,At the same time and that the outside world mistakenly assume that China's actual copper demand increase.But in fact,Start from the end of last year,China's copper downstream demand goes down a third.

　　由于我国是全球最大的铜进口国，在很大程度上，中国铜进口量直接影响国际铜价，“融资铜”对铜价造成的推升，直接使国内下游的用铜企业受到成本波动的困扰。在今年，像“融资铜”这样运营的进口商品还有铝、甲醇等。

Because our country is the world's largest copper importer,To a great extent,China's copper imports directly influence the international copper,"Financing copper"Copper prices to push caused,Direct make domestic downstream copper enterprises are cost fluctuation problems.In this year,like"Financing copper"This operation of imported goods and aluminum/methanol.

　　未来仍将低速增长

The future will still low speed growth

　　由以上分析可以看出，造成今年外贸进口低位增长的原因主要是经济减速和价格下跌。

From the above analysis can be seen,This year the foreign trade caused by imported low growth are the main reasons why the economic slowdown and prices.

　　从未来的经济发展形势看，无论国内还是国外，目前都处在经济危机后艰难的调整阶段，金融危机的深层次影响还在不断显现，高债务、高失业率成为西方国家难以摆脱的困境，而新兴市场和发展中国家也面临着严重的结构性问题，经济前景不容乐观。最近，国际货币基金组织发布的《世界经济展望》报告进一步下调了今明两年的全球经济增长预测至3.3%和3.6%，其中欧元区今年将出现0.4%的负增长，整个发达经济体仅有1.3%的增长；新兴和发展中经济体将增长5.3%，明显低于前两年7.5%和6.2%增速，中国2012年将增长7.8%，2013年将增长8.2%。

From the future economic development situation to see,Whether domestic or abroad,At present are in economic crisis after the difficult adjustment stage,The financial crisis in the deep influence continued to appear,High debt/High unemployment become difficult to get rid of the plight of the western countries,But emerging markets and developing countries is also facing significant structural problems,Economic outlook is not optimistic.recently,The international monetary fund released[The world economic outlook]The report further cut in the next two years of global economic growth forecast to 3.3% and 3.6%,This year the euro zone will be 0.4% negative growth,The developed economies only 1.3% of growth;Emerging and developing economies will increase by 5.3%,Obviously lower than the first two years of 7.5% and 6.2% growth,China will increase by 7.8% in 2012,In 2013 will increase by 8.2%.

　　在接下来的几个月，中国经济增长仍面临很大的压力。一方面外部环境持续低迷，另一方面国内经济自主增长动力下降，8月份工业用电量增速大幅回落，新出口订单指数等先行指标也低位徘徊，内部和外部的形势依然严峻。虽然国家已出台稳定投资、促进外贸出口增长的新政策，但在短时期内仍难以明显见效。

In the next few months,China's economic growth is still face a lot of pressure.On the one hand the external environment sustained downturn,On the other hand, the domestic financial independent growth power decline,August industrial electricity consumption growth dropped sharply,New export orders index of leading indicators such as low end also,Internal and external situation is still severe.Although the country has already issued stable investment/To promote foreign trade export growth of the new policy,But in the short term is still difficult to clear response.

　　从大宗商品价格的走势看，由于美国推出新一轮量化宽松政策，将引发更多国家出台新的经济刺激政策，未来国际市场通胀预期抬头，将推动商品价格上涨。同时，近年来全球范围内极端天气有增多的趋势，自然灾害造成的供应紧张在明年也将会继续对农产品市场价格构成冲击，再加上大选之年国际政治局势动荡的影响，估计未来世界商品价格有逐步走高的趋势。

From the commodity prices trend to see,Due to the launch of a new round of quantitative easing policy,Will trigger a more countries introduce new economic stimulus policies,Future international market inflation expectations looked up,Will push commodity prices.At the same time,In recent years the global scope extreme weather have increased trends,Natural disaster supplies in next year will continue to agricultural products market price structure impact,Plus election year international political situation the influence of turbulence,Estimate the future price of commodities have gradually go high trend.

　　综合以上国内外环境，我们认为在今后一段时期，尽管国际大宗商品价格回升和政府的稳增长政策将对进口增长有一定的推动作用，但未来一年经济上行的动力不大，同时随着国内劳动力、环境、土地等综合成本上升，产能和订单逐步向东南亚低成本国家转移，今后加工贸易和利用外资对我进口的拉动作用将持续下滑。因此，今年四季度和明年年初我国外贸进口仍将处于低速增长的状态。

Integrated above environment at home and abroad,We believe that in the future period,Although international commodity prices rebound and government policy to increase stability will import growth has a certain role,But next year the economy ascending power is not big,At the same time, domestic labor/environment/Land comprehensive cost rise,Capacity and order gradually to southeast Asia low cost country transfer,Processing trade and the use of foreign capital in the future to I import role in boosting will continue to decline.therefore,This year the fourth quarter and early next year our country foreign trade import will remain in the state of low growth.