最近几个交易日，人民币即期汇价走势强劲，接连上演“涨停”之势。

The last few trading days,RMB exchange rate movements at strong,Were put on"harden"Potential of the.

　　尽管如此，一些小贸易商们却并没有急于去把手里的美元换成人民币，他们认为人民币的接连涨停也仅仅是短期的强烈波动而已；而一些业内分析人士则表示，从全年的人民币汇率价格变化来看，无论是中间价还是即期市场价格，双向波动的预期和走势已经越来越明显，这种“新现象”已成为今年的常态。

Even so,A few small traders have not anxious to go to the hands of dollars into RMB,They think of RMB for harden is only short-term strong wave just;Some industry analysts, said,The RMB exchange rate from the price changes to see,Whether the middle price or the spot market price,Two-way fluctuation anticipated and movements have become more and more obvious,this"A new phenomenon"Has become this year's normal.

　　盘中继续涨停

Plate continue to harden

　　昨日人民币对美元中间价较前一个交易日小幅上涨4个基点至6.3078。而在即期市场，上午一开盘人民币对美元就触及6.2447，按照今年四月以来人民币即期市场汇率扩大日间交易波动幅度的规定，即期市场价格要在中间价上下1%的范围内波动，那么6.2447与6.3078相比已经是1%的“涨停价”。

Yesterday the RMB against the us dollar price is among the previous trading day up slightly 4 basis points to 6.3078.And in the spot market,Morning a opening of the RMB against the us dollar is reached 6.2447,According to this year since April yuan spot market rate expand day trading fluctuation range regulations,Spot market prices are in the middle price fluctuation 1% range,So compared to 6.2447 and 6.3078 has is 1%"Harden price".

　　自10月25日以来，上周人民币即期汇率价格在8个交易日中创出了7个涨停，汇价也随之升破6.24关口，至6.23。昨日的惯性涨停也并不出乎市场预料，人民币对美元全天多数时间都封在6.2447；只是临近收盘，汇率价格松动，最终以6.2456报收，但仍处于日间交易的高位。

Since since October 25,,Last week at the spot exchange rate on the price of 8 trading day makes the seven harden,Exchange rate also subsequently rise broken 6.24 gates,To 6.23.Yesterday's inertia harden is not beyond the market expected,The RMB against the us dollar day most of the time are all sealed in 6.2447;Just near the closing,Exchange prices loose,Finally to 6.2456 at,But still in high of day trading.

　　一位海外大行负责财富管理的专业人士对此表示，“其实离岸市场的人民币汇率价格早就在6.23左右，之所以会连续几个涨停，主要是美元对人民币中间价本身就高于市场所期待的水平，不过我们认为6.23的汇率水平明显是被高估了，现在一年期的NDF（海外无本金交割远期）价格是6.35左右，我们自己的判断也是到2013年底，人民币仍然会维持在6.3左右的水平，现在投机性因素比较高，一方面出口企业借人民币升值之际，尽量出售自己手中的美元，同时中国经济向好推升了人民币升值压力，还有就是美国大选的因素。”

An overseas big line is responsible for wealth management professionals expressed,"In fact offshore market price of RMB exchange rate in early 6.23 or so,Are continuous several harden,Is mainly the us dollar to RMB intermediate price itself is higher than the market expected level,But we think that the exchange rate is 6.23 level obviously is highly overrated,Now one-year NDF(Overseas no principal delivery forward)The price is 6.35,Our own judgment is by the end of 2013,RMB will still remain at the level of around 6.3,Now speculative factors is higher,On the one hand export enterprise by the appreciation of the RMB,Try to sell their own hands of dollars,At the same time, China's economy is going well push up the appreciation of the RMB pressure,There is the U.S. presidential election factors."

　　国家信息中心预测部副研究员张茉楠日前撰文表示，有两个方面的制度问题值得关注，“一方面香港特区紧盯美元的联系汇率制度留下非常大的人民币双向套汇套利空间，另一方面则是中国内地对外资产负债表主体的错配。”

The state information center forecast Mo deputy researcher zhang nan said a lot about,There are two aspects of the system is a concern,"On the one hand the Hong Kong SAR the dollar the linked exchange rate system of RMB left a very big two-way arbitrage arbitrage space,On the other hand is mainland China foreign balance sheet subject mismatch."

　　全年看双向波动

Annual see two-way fluctuation

　　目前的人民币汇率价格可以分为两个方面来看，一个是中间价，一个是即期市场汇率价格。虽然即期市场汇率价格不断创出历史新高，在日间交易中不断触及距离中间价1%的“涨停板”，但是，人民币的中间价目前依然处于年内的中等水平。

The present RMB exchange rate price can be divided into two aspects to see,One is the middle price,One is the spot market exchange prices.Although the spot market rate prices are a record,In the day trading continuously touch distance middle rate 1%"Harden board",but,The middle of the RMB price still in the medium level in years.

　　根据中国外汇交易中心公布的数据来看，刚刚过去的10月份，人民币对美元月平均中间价为6.3144，而年内月平均最高的中间价是今年4月，为6.2966。同时，每天的人民币对美元中间价年内最高是出现在今年5月初，曾高达6.2670。目前来看，人民币的中间价仍在6.3左右波动，距年内最高仍有一段距离。

According to the China foreign exchange trading center figures,Just the past 10 months,The RMB against the us dollar monthly average middle rate is 6.3144,And the year is mean monthly the middle of the highest price in April this year,For 6.2966.At the same time,The day of the RMB against the us dollar price years among the highest is appeared in early may this year,Was as high as 6.2670.So far,The middle of the RMB price is still in the 6.3 fluctuation,The highest from years still have a distance.

　　而且如果以去年12月份的月平均中间价6.3281来看，刚刚过去的10月份，人民币月平均中间价小幅升值0.2%。

And if in December last year the average monthly middle rate 6.3281 to see,Just the past 10 months,RMB monthly average middle rate, the modest rise 0.2%.

　　从全年的数据来看，全年的月平均最低价是在8月，为6.3404。在那时，人民币年内贬值接近0.2%。

From the data to see all the year round,Annual monthly average price is in August,For 6.3404.At that time,RMB devaluation of year of nearly 0.2%.

　　在即期市场上，人民币在本年度的升贬双边波动走势也非常明显，加上起始于四月的双边波动幅度扩大因素，升贬幅度也变得更大。

Spot in the,The yuan in this year's rise close bilateral fluctuation trend is also very obvious,Add begins in April bilateral fluctuation amplitude magnification factor,Up close range and become bigger.

　　在今年3月，央行副行长易纲就曾指出，关于人民币汇率的走势，特别是从市场的预期来看，我们有境内的即期市场和远期市场，同时在境外也有NDF市场。从整个预期来看，自去年第四季度以来，已经形成了比较持续的对人民币汇率的双向预期和双向波动。这种预期的双向波动持续的时间较长，范围浮动得也比较灵活，这是一个新的现象。其实，这种表达在上个月中旬易纲出席IMF和世行东京年会时也表示，人民币汇率已接近基于市场供需的均衡水平。

In march this year,Yi gang, vice governor of the central bank was pointed out,The trend of the RMB exchange rate,Especially from the market expected to see,We have within the territory of the spot market and the forward market,At the same time in overseas also have NDF market.From the entire expected to see,Since the fourth quarter of last year since,Has formed a comparison to the RMB exchange rate for two-way expectations and two-way fluctuation.This expected two-way fluctuation for quite a long time,Range floating are also flexible,This is a new phenomenon.In fact,This kind of expression in the middle of last month yi attended the IMF and world bank also said Tokyo convention,The RMB exchange rate based on market supply and demand has been close to the equilibrium level.

　　对于人民币的走势，中金首席经济学家彭文生近期发表文章称，“总体判断，我们认为人民币现在离均衡水平不远。”

For the trend,Zhongjin chief economist PengWenSheng recently published the article says,"Overall judgment,We believe that the yuan is now not far from equilibrium level."

　　并未急于换出美元

Not anxious to swap out dollars

　　虽然即期市场人民币汇率价格飙涨，但是也有一些贸易商们并没有急着去换出美元。

Although the spot market prices rocketing RMB exchange rate,But there are also some traders are not in a hurry to change out of dollars.

　　昨天，记者在采访一些中等规模的贸易商时，其中的多数人传达给记者的信息是，他们已经关注到近期人民币的汇率价格变动，但是，一些人认为即期市场人民币的快速升值可能是短期的波动，手中愿意持有美元观望的仍大有人在。“短期内不会太关注那么一点汇率的波动，这是我们这个圈子里的人达成的一种共识吧。市场总会是涨涨跌跌的。”一位贸易商对记者说，看来人民币双向波动的预期似乎已经深入人心。

yesterday,Reporter in the interview some medium scale when traders,One of the most people across to the reporter's information is,They have paid close attention to recent RMB exchange rate price change,but,Some people think that spot market the yuan rise more quickly may be short-term fluctuations,Hands are willing to hold dollars wait-and-see is still there."In the short term will not be too little attention because of the fluctuation of exchange rate,This is our people in this circle reached a consensus on it.The market will always be the up and down of the fall."A trader told reporters,It seems the two-way fluctuation expected seems to have thorough popular feeling.

　　不过，在昨天全天的交易中，据银行外汇交易员称，美元买盘很少。

but,In yesterday's trading day,According to the bank foreign exchange traders say,Dollars buying rarely.

　　“在未来的交易中，人民币对美元的走势将越来越难以形成一个长时间的固定观点判断。其实，这种现象在去年四季度末期就已经出现。经过一轮贬值，一轮升值，再一轮贬值，目前的升值，已经越来越明显。”一位国有商业银行的外汇交易员称。

"In futures trading,The trend of the RMB against the us dollar will become more and more difficult to form a long time of fixed point of view judgment.In fact,This phenomenon in the end of the fourth quarter last year had appeared.After the devaluation,Round of appreciation,Devaluation again,The current appreciation,Already more and more obvious."A state-owned commercial bank's foreign exchange traders say.

　　在外汇市场上，美元并未出现走弱的趋势。伴随着美国大选投票的开始，昨天，美元一直稳固在80.6以上，到记者截稿时，美元指数为80.64。

In the foreign exchange market,Dollars did not appear the weaker trend.With the beginning of the American election,yesterday,Dollar has been strong in more than 80.6,To reporters when press,The dollar index was 80.64.