日本最大的出口对象国很可能时隔4年重新由中国变为美国。其原因除了当前中日关系恶化外，还有中国经济增长放缓这一关键因素。出口形势的“中美转换”成为日本重新思考政府政策和企业战略的契机。

Japan's biggest export DuiXiangGuo probably after 4 years by China to become the United States.Its reason in addition to the current sino-japanese relations deteriorating external,And China's economic growth slowed the key factors.Export situation"The conversion"As Japan rethink the government policies and enterprise strategic opportunity.

　　日本第一生命经济研究所统计显示，剔除季节因素，今年4～6月期日本面向中国的出口额（约2.9万亿日元）时隔14个季度首次低于面向美国的出口额（约3万亿日元）。日本对华出口方面，电子部件和钢铁陷入低迷，另一方面，由于美国新型天然气开采活动升温，日本的矿山机械对美出口表现坚挺，汽车部件也出现增长。

Japan's first life economic research institute statistics show,Eliminate seasonal factors,This year 4 ~ 6 month period Japan for China's exports(About 2.9 trillion yen)After 14 quarters for the first time below to American exports(About 3 trillion yen).Japan exports to aspects,Electronic components and the downturn in steel,On the other hand,Due to the new natural gas mining activities warming,Japan's mining machinery exports to America strong performance,Auto parts also appears growth.

　　2008年美国发生金融危机后，日本的最大出口对象国由美国变成中国。当季度面向美国的出口额由危机前的4万多亿日元下跌至1万亿日元，另一方面，对华出口额则徘徊在3万亿日元左右，支撑着日本的外需。而进入2012年之后，面向中美两国的出口额均为2万亿日元左右，十分接近。

In 2008 the United States after the financial crisis happened,Japan's largest export DuiXiangGuo into China by the United States.When quarter to American exports before the crisis by more than $40000 yen fell to 1 trillion yen,On the other hand,China exports is wandering in about 3 trillion yen,Support the Japanese overseas market demand.Into the 2012 years later,Facing the two countries exports are about 2 trillion yen,Very close to.

　　其原因是中国经济明显减速。中国7～9月期实际增长率降至7.4%、连续7个季度下滑。中日关系趋冷更是雪上加霜。第一生命研究所首席经济学家永滨利广预测称，“本年度美国很可能时隔4年重新成为日本最大的出口对象国”。

The reason for this is that China's economy slows significantly.China 7 ~ 9 months the actual growth rate fell to 7.4%/For seven consecutive quarter of decline.The cold relations the gloom.The first life institute chief economist for ever and offshore liguang forecast says,"This year the United States would after 4 years to become Japan's biggest export DuiXiangGuo".

　　近年来，经济学家一直在讨论中国是否迎来了“刘易斯拐点”。这是英国学者阿瑟·刘易斯提出的理论，意思是农村劳动力向城市转移完毕、陷入劳动力不足状态。

In recent years,Economists have been discussing whether China ushered in"Lewis inflection point".This is the British scholar Arthur lewis theories put forward,Meaning is that the rural labor force to cities after transfer/In labor shortages state.

　　统计数据令人感觉中国迎来了路易斯拐点。中国的有效雇用倍率（用人需求和求职人数之比）在2010年1～3月期超过了1倍、劳动力供应开始出现缺口。经济增长率低于政府目标（7.5%）的今年7～9月期，该倍率也高达1.05倍。工厂工人和卡车司机的人手不足尤为明显，内陆地区的有效雇用倍率也超过了1倍。

Statistical data make a person feel China ushered in the Louise inflection point.China's effective employment ratio(Employing demand and the ratio of the number of to apply for a job)In 2010 1 ~ 3 months more than 1 times/Labor supply began to appear gap.Economic growth rate lower than the government target(7.5%)This year 7 ~ 9 month period,This ratio is also as high as 1.05 times.Factory workers and truck driver's understaffed is especially obvious,Inland areas of the effective employment ratio is more than 1 times.

　　更为严峻的是年轻人口的减少。在平均退休年龄为50多岁的中国，雇用以10几岁到30几岁的人群为主。据日本瑞穗综合研究所统计，中国15～39的人口在05年达到顶峰5.6亿人后开始下滑，预计2030年将减少至4.4亿人。而在接受大量移民、弥补了年轻人口减少的美国，雇用明显过剩。

More serious is the young population decrease.In the average retirement age for more than 50 years old Chinese,Hire with ten several years to 30 a few years old crowd give priority to.According to Japanese mizuho comprehensive research institute statistics,China 15 ~ 39 of the population in the 05 years reach the top 560 million people began to drop,Is expected in 2030 will be reduced to 440 million people.And in to accept a large number of immigrants/To make up for the young population decrease of the United States,Hire obvious excess.

　　法国巴黎证券的首席经济学家河野龙太郎分析称，中国在约2年前就迎来了刘易斯拐点，潜在增长率下跌至6～7%。同时指出“雷曼危机后的4万亿刺激政策使发现问题和出台对策的时间延后”。

Paris, France securities chief economist of the dragon kono aso analysis says,China in about 2 years ago ushered in the lewis inflection point,Potential growth rate down to 6 ~ 7%.At the same time points out that"Lehman crisis after the 4 trillion stimulus policies to find out problems and countermeasures on the time delay".

　　日本经济产业省为了使外需不过分依赖中国，正在倡导扩大包括美国在内的环太平洋(601099,股吧)经济合作协定（TPP）和自由贸易协定（FTA）。在日本汽车和工程机械厂商中，已出现了“有必要重新认识英语圈，调整出口战略”的意见。

The Japanese economy ministry in order to make the overseas market demand does not depend on China,Is advocated, including the United States, expand the Pacific rim(601099,guba)Economic cooperation agreement(TPP)And free trade agreement(FTA).In the Japanese cars and engineering machinery manufacturers which,Already appeared"Is necessary to know English circle,Adjust the export strategy"opinion.