最新海关进口数据显示，今年前9个月中国出口精炼铜为21.48万吨，已超过去年全年的15.7万吨，增幅达39.85%，业内预计全年出口增幅至少在50%以上。作为占全球精炼铜消费比例近40%的经济体，中国对全球铜供需平衡的影响足以左右市场走向。

The latest customs import data display,The first nine months of the year China's export refined copper for 214800 tons,Already more than 157000 tons for all of last year,Growing by 39.85%,The annual export growth is expected to at least 50%.As a share of global refined copper consumption ratio nearly 40% of the economy,China's global copper supply and demand balance of influence around to the market direction.

　　一家国内大型铜冶炼企业高管表示，该公司签署铜出口年度合约的“可能性”是存在的，在当前市场条件下，出口在利润率上比国内销售更合算。

A large domestic copper smelting enterprise executives said,The company sign copper export year contract"possibility"exists,In the current market conditions,Export in profit margins than domestic sales more bang for the buck.

　　瑞银证券分析师林浩祥指出，出口数据相对于精炼铜进口数据占比较小，但随着沪铜、伦铜比价的走低和退税的上升，出口精铜变得有利可图。新的传导机制，有可能使中国铜企加大精炼铜出口，通过出口缓解中国铜市场过剩的现状。

Ubs securities analyst pointed out that LinHaoXiang,Export data relative to the refined copper import data of smaller,But with the Shanghai copper/Aaron copper the parity of falling and rising tax refund,Export refined copper become profitable.The new transmission mechanism,May make China copper enterprises increase refined copper export,Through the export alleviate Chinese copper market the present situation of excess.

　　出口数量猛增

Export quantity soaring

　　随着中国经济在今年早些时候放缓，中国的铜出口有所加快，在5月份达到10.2万吨的峰值。据中国海关2012年精铜出口数据来看，截至今年9月，出口累计达到21.48万吨，同比增幅为39.85%。

As China's economy is slowing earlier this year,China's copper export somewhat faster,In may reach 102000 tons of peak.According to Chinese customs 2012 refined copper export data to see,By September this year,Total exports reached 214800 tons,39.85% yoy.

　　这一现状，使中国冶炼企业近日首次在商议按照年度合约出口铜的事宜，按照年度合约出口铜的举动。这在一定程度上说明中国冶炼企业对国内需求的前景缺乏信心。

The current situation,Make China smelting enterprises recently took counsel for the first time in the contract according to the annual export copper matters,According to the annual contract export copper move.This, to a certain extent, shows that China smelting enterprises to domestic demand prospect of lack of confidence.

　　从精炼铜出口数据看，2011年全年总共出口精炼铜仅为15.7万吨，相当于同时期进口总量约4%。但从同比数据看，2011年出口总量已经同比增长了304%。同时，从安泰科(Antaike)的预测数据看，2012年中国精炼铜出口预计达到26.2万吨，同比增长67%。林浩祥认为，考虑到目前的内外比价关系，2012年出口同比增长50%是可以实现的。

From refined copper export data to see,A total of 2011 annual export refined copper is only 157000 tons,The same period is equivalent to the total imports about 4%.But from the year-on-year data to see,In 2011, exports have increased 304% year-on-year.At the same time,From antaike(Antaike)Prediction data to see,In 2012, the Chinese refined copper export is expected to reach 262000 tons,Year-on-year growth of 67%.LinHaoXiang think,In view of the present internal and external parity relationship,Exports in 2012 year-on-year growth of 50% can be realized.

　　中国过去几年保持了大规模的精炼铜和铜精矿的进口，在经济放缓的背景下，铜需求减缓导致中国国内市场囤积了一定规模的精炼铜库存。前几年由于中国沪铜、伦铜比价相对较高、出口没有退税或较低等原因，中国企业出口精铜积极性不高；但随着沪铜、伦铜比价的走低和退税的上升，出口精铜变得有利可图。

Over the past few years China maintained a large-scale refined copper and copper concentrate imports,In the background of the economic slowdown,Copper demand slow lead to China's domestic market hoarding a certain scale refined copper stock.A few years ago because of China's Shanghai copper/Aaron copper ratio is relative taller/Export do not have drawback or lower reason,Chinese enterprises to export refined copper enthusiasm is not high;But with the Shanghai copper/Aaron copper the parity of falling and rising tax refund,Export refined copper become profitable.

　　过剩局面得到缓解

Excess situation ease

　　中国税务局自7月1日以来取消3%的铜出口税率。新的传导机制，有可能使中国铜企加大出口，从而完成市场的自我修复。因此中长期看，出口有可能缓解中国过剩的铜市场现状，同时有可能加强沪铜、伦铜的价格联动，部分程度上提升沪伦比，有利于国内铜矿企业。

China's tax official since July 1, cancelled since 3% of the copper export tax rate.The new transmission mechanism,Has the potential to increase China's copper enterprises export,Thus complete market repair itself.So long to see,Export may alleviate Chinese excess copper market situation,At the same time may strengthen the Shanghai copper/Aaron copper price linkage,Part of the extent improve Shanghai challenge,Help domestic copper enterprise.

　　从目前国内几大上市铜企的存货情况来看，铜资源(上游)的库存规模已经有所上升，但铜加工行业(中下游)的库存略有下降，但二项指标均均处于2006年以来的均值以上。

From the current domestic several big listed copper enterprises inventory situation,Copper resources(upstream)Inventory scale has been increased,But copper processing industry(Middle and lower reaches)Inventory declined slightly,But two indexes are in since 2006 more than the mean.

　　林浩祥指出，从数据看，2008年~2011年中国铜冶炼产能保持了快速增长，中国前期铜冶炼产能增速已经较快，未来的冶炼产能增速将显著下降或逐步停止扩产。

LinHaoXiang pointed out that,From the data to see,In 2008 ~ 2011 China copper smelting capacity has maintained a rapid growth,The China copper smelting capacity growth has been faster,The future of smelting capacity growth will significantly or gradually stop modification.

　　上述铜企高管认为，中国是铜的全球最大消费国，占全球需求的40%，即便能够达成出口铜的事宜，这些出口合同相对于中国每年大约300万吨的铜进口规模来说也将是较小的，预计中国明年的铜出口可能达到这一水平的大约十分之一，即20万至40万吨之间。毕竟，目前铜的定价权并不在国内。

The copper enterprise executives think,China is the world's largest consumer of copper,Accounted for 40% of global demand,Even if can achieve export copper matters,These export contract relative in China each year about 3 million tons of copper imports size is also will be smaller,China is expected to next year's copper export may reach this level of about one over ten,That is between 200000 to 400000 tons.After all,At present determine the price of a copper is not at home.

　　林浩祥表示，沪铜、伦铜比价对于中国铜进口有很好的领先指示意义。对于过多的进口，正常的市场的自我调节机制是是有传导性的，若进口铜没有得到下游积极消化，过剩的供需格局将压制沪铜、伦铜比价的上行，由此抑制进口。

LinHaoXiang said,Shanghai copper/Aaron copper ratio for China's copper imports have very good leading denotative meaning.For the import of too much,The normal market self regulation mechanism is conductive,If the import copper didn't get lower positive digestion,Excess supply and demand pattern will suppress Shanghai copper/Aaron copper the parity of ascending,Thus control the import.