近期人民币汇率走高的步伐仍在继续。12日人民币对美元汇率中间价达到半年以来的高点，即期汇率也于早盘再创历史新高，并连续第10个交易日触及交易区间的上限。分析人士指出，近期人民币汇率持续走高主要受贸易顺差扩大及发达国家出台第三轮量化宽松政策影响，但不会出现大幅升值的情况。  

Recently the exchange rate for the renminbi to high pace continues.12 of the RMB against the us dollar exchange rate middle rate to peak in six months,Spot exchange rate in early plate hit a record high,And continuous 10th trading trading range touch the ceiling.Analysts pointed out that,Recently the RMB exchange rate continued high mainly by the trade surplus expansion and the developed countries on the third round of quantitative easing policy influence,But won't appear the rise sharply.  

　　贸易顺差扩大推高人民币汇率

Trade surplus expansion push up the RMB exchange rate

　　来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，12日，人民币对美元汇率中间价连续第五个交易日走高，再次突破6.30关口，达到6.292，为今年5月9日以来的新高。即期市场上，人民币对美元汇率早盘首次升破6.23整数关口，再次创出历史新高，并触及涨幅上限。

From the China foreign exchange trading center data display,12,The RMB against the us dollar exchange rate the middle price fifth consecutive trading day go high,Once again break at 6.30,Reached 6.292,For this year, May 9 record high since.Spot market,The RMB against the us dollar exchange rate for the first time earlier rise broken 6.23 integer gates,Once again a record,And touch or upper limit.

　　国际金融专家赵庆明说，贸易差额是观察汇率变化的基本因素。今年以来，我国贸易顺差逐季扩大，不出意外的话，全年贸易顺差将突破2000亿美元。贸易顺差的扩大，无疑会增加外汇市场的美元供应，推高人民币汇率。

International financial experts ZhaoQing speaking plainly,Balance of trade is to observe the basic factors in the fluctuation of exchange rate.Since this year,Our country's trade surplus to expand by season,If no accident,The trade surplus will exceed $200 billion.The expansion of trade surplus,Will undoubtedly increase foreign exchange market dollar supply,Pushing up the RMB exchange rate.

　　海关总署最新公布的数据显示，前10个月我国贸易顺差累计为1802.3亿美元。10月当月的贸易顺差为319.9亿美元。

The general administration of customs latest figures show,First 10 months China trade surplus accumulated for 180.23 billion dollars.October surplus for the month of $31.99 billion.

　　另一方面，赵庆明说，美联储推出第三轮量化宽松政策后，国际上开始看空美元，看多非美元货币。近期公布的宏观数据显示，中国经济整体上已经触底回升，这使得去年第四季度以来出现的人民币贬值预期出现反转。

On the other hand,ZhaoQing testified,The federal reserve launched the third round of quantitative easing policy,International began to look at an empty dollars,See more than dollars money.The recent published macro data display,China's economy has, on the whole, touch bottom rebound,This makes the fourth quarter of last year appeared since the devaluation of RMB of expected a reversal.

　　近期香港面临短期资金大量进入的情况。赵庆明说，与香港资本项目高度开放不同，中国内地对资本项目实行管制，没有出现国际游资的大量涌入。“但国际资本进入香港推高港币汇率以及离岸市场人民币汇率，也对内地人民币汇率走高预期产生影响。”

Recent Hong Kong faces a lot of short-term funds into the situation.ZhaoQing testified,With the Hong Kong capital project open different height,The Chinese mainland on capital project implement control,There is no international the influx of hot money."But the international capital into Hong Kong push up hk dollar and offshore market RMB exchange rate,Also in the mainland, the RMB exchange rate is expected to go higher impact."

　　对外经济贸易大学金融学院院长丁志杰说，从去年9月份以来，银行间外汇市场盘中交易与过去相比明显“大起大落”，阶段性触及跌停和阶段性涨停交替。“这一方面和央行逐渐放手有关，另一方面跟市场不成熟有关，还带有很重的结售汇市场的痕迹。”

Foreign economic and trade university financial dean of college DingZhiJie said,From last year since September,In the inter bank foreign exchange market plate transaction compared with the past obviously"Dramatic ups and downs",Periodic touch drop stop and periodic harden alternate."On the one hand and the central bank related gradually to let go,On the other hand to market is not mature relevant,With heavy writtens guarantee the trace of the market."

　　四季度企业和银行持汇意愿下降

Four quarter enterprise and bank the remittance will decline

　　他分析说，今年前三个季度，由于人民币出现贬值预期，金融机构的单位外汇存款罕见地增加了1309亿美元，还不包括企业未汇回存放境外的外汇。进入四季度，人民币开始出现升值压力，企业和银行持汇意愿下降，不仅要卖出来自当期国际收支顺差的外汇，还要抛售前期在境内外持有的外汇头寸，后者给市场的压力更大。

He said the analysis,In the first three quarters,Because RMB devaluation expected there,Financial institutions unit foreign exchange deposit uncommonly rose by $130.9 billion,Not including enterprise fails to collect kept outside of foreign exchange.Into the fourth quarter,RMB appreciation pressure began to appear,Enterprise and bank the remittance will decline,Not only to sell from current international balance of payment surplus of foreign exchange,Also the selling both at home and abroad hold foreign exchange position,The latter to the market more pressure.

　　中国人民银行发布的数据显示，今年9月份我国外汇占款增加了近1307亿元。其中，央行外汇占款仅增加了20.38亿元。

The people's bank of China released data show,In September this year China's foreign exchange increase funding of nearly 130.7 billion yuan.the,The central bank funding of foreign exchange only added up to 2.038 billion yuan.

　　丁志杰说，央行的外汇占款增加很少，表明央行不再增持外汇。这使得人民币升值要比以往快一些，也反映央行对人民币升值的容忍度在上升。

DingZhiJie said,The central bank's foreign exchange increase funding of few,Show that the central bank no longer increasing foreign exchange.This makes the appreciation of the renminbi to faster than ever before,The central bank also reflect on the appreciation of the renminbi tolerance on the rise.

　　尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率表现强劲，但用于衡量海外市场对人民币升值预期的海外无本金交割远期市场(NDF)仍然存在一定贬值预期。远期结售汇也继续呈现逆差。

Despite the recent strong against the dollar,But used to measure the overseas market for the appreciation of the renminbi expected overseas no principal delivery forward market(NDF)There is still a devaluation expected.Forward writtens guarantee also continued to deficit.

　　分析指出，远期结售汇签约继续逆差，说明市场对未来人民币汇率走势预期有分化，远期贬值预期仍然存在，一些客户因此选择用远期产品来锁定汇率风险。

Analysis shows that the,Forward writtens guarantee contract continue to deficit,It is illustrated that the market for the future trend of the RMB exchange rate are expected differentiation,Forward depreciation expected still exist,Some customers so choose to use forward products to lock exchange rate risk.

　　赵庆明认为，从当前的贸易顺差情况来看，人民币汇率近期的大方向仍然是升值。但受制于稳定出口以及宏观经济等因素，人民币不会出现持续大幅度升值。随着人民币汇率趋向合理均衡水平，人民币对美元汇率双向波动的趋势将进一步增强。

ZhaoQingMing think,From the current situation of the trade surplus,The exchange rate for the renminbi is still the general control of the recent appreciation.But subject to stable export and macroeconomic factors,RMB appreciation would not have sustained greatly.As the RMB exchange rate trend reasonable equilibrium level,The RMB against the us dollar exchange rate two-way fluctuation trend will be further enhanced.