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食用油及大豆进口双双激增--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-11-13

  分析师称,我国大豆食用油对外依存度偏高,从而导致国内食用油价格紧随美豆价格变动 

Analysts say,Our country soybean and oil external dependence on the high side,Leading to the domestic oil price followed beauty bean price change 

  11月10日,海关总署发布2012年10月全国进口重点商品量值表,而从这则表的数据中可以看出,年内我国进口大豆及食用植物油均有大幅增长:年内大豆累计进口数量增长16.6%,金额增长19%;食用植物油年内累计进口量增长24.2%,金额增长24.9%。 

On November 10th,Issued by the general administration of customs in October 2012 the national import key commodity value table,And from this is data in the table can be seen in,Years our country imported soybean and edible vegetable oil significantly increase:Years accumulative total soybean import quantity growth to 16.6%,The amount of 19% growth;Edible vegetable oil years accumulative total imports increased by 24.2%,The amount of 24.9% growth. 

  进口大豆及食用植物油的大额增长是否会对国内产业造成冲击?而临近年底,食用油是否会陷入逢节必涨的怪圈?对此,《证券日报》记者联系有食用油业务的上市公司,接受采访的公司表示,价格“随行就市”,但亦有公司称,公司小包装产品的价格一直未有变化,而对于未来是否有调价的可能,则回复称暂时未有计划。 

Import soybean and edible vegetable oil in large growth will impact on domestic industry?Near the end of the year and,Whether cooking oil into every day will rise of the circle?this,[Securities daily]Contact reporters have edible oil business of the listed company,The company said the interview,price"is",But also have the company said,The company small packing product prices have been no change,And for the future if there is the possibility of price adjustment,The reply say temporarily does not have any plan. 

  大豆进口量长期增长 

Soybean imports long-term growth 

  从产品特性来看,食用油可以分为花生油、大豆油、玉米油等品种,但由于玉米油、花生油等其它品种产量使然,大豆油占据了食用油行业的主要市场份额,正是因为这种特性,大豆为主要油脂品种,因此其价格的涨跌对于食用油产业具有标杆性的作用。 

From the product features to see,Edible oil can be divided into peanut oil/Soybean oil/Varieties such as corn oil,But as a result of corn oil/Peanut oil, and other varieties due to production,Soybean oil accounted for edible oil industry's main market share,Because this kind of characteristic,Soybean as main oil varieties,So the price rise and drop for edible oil industry has the benchmarking sex role. 

  近年来,大豆进口一直呈增长态势,使得行业对其依赖度不断增加。海关总署官网显示,在11月10日发布的2012年10月全国进口重点商品量值表中,大豆当月进口403万吨,金额约28亿元,而今年年内累计进口大豆4834万吨,金额约283亿元,在去年同期,大豆进口4145万吨,累计金额约238亿元,对比得知,年内大豆累计进口数量增长16.6%,金额增长19%。 

In recent years,Soybean import has been an increase in the future,Make industries to increase its dependency.The general administration of customs showed's official website,On November 10th released in October 2012 the national import key commodity value table,The soybean import 4.03 million tons,Amount of about 2.8 billion yuan,And this year accumulative total import 48.34 million tons of soybeans,Amount of about 28.3 billion yuan,During the same period last year,Soybean import 41.45 million tons,Accumulated amount of about 23.8 billion yuan,Contrast that,Years accumulative total soybean import quantity growth to 16.6%,The amount of 19% growth. 

  值得注意的是,在今年10月,食用植物油进口达到90万吨,金额约10亿元,年内累计进口641万吨,金额约75.7亿元,与去年同期相比,进口量增长了24.2%,进口金额增长了24.9%。 

It is important to note that,In October,Edible vegetable oil import 900000 tons,Amount of about 1 billion yuan,Years accumulative total import 6.41 million tons,Amount of about 7.57 billion yuan,Compared with the same period last year,Imports increased 24.2%,The amount of imports increased by 24.9%. 

  此消彼长。援引媒体的报道可以看出,在进口大豆不断增加的同时,国产大豆的产量却在逐渐消减,以主产地黑龙江为例,2010年黑龙江省大豆产量为585万吨,比上年减少7万吨,而2011年度大豆总产量则为542万吨,比上年减少7.5%,而2012年数据虽未公布,但减产之势明显。 

eliminates.Media reports quoted can be seen,In the import soybean increased at the same time,Domestic soybean yield was gradually reduce,The leading to heilongjiang province as an example,2010 soybean production in heilongjiang province for 5.85 million tons,Compared with a decrease of 70000 tons,And the 2011 annual soybean production is 5.42 million tons,Compared with reduced by 7.5%,And in 2012 though not published data,But the potential obviously cut. 

  豆油价格降势明显 

Prices of rival soybean oil JiangShi obviously 

  由于进口大豆占据了大豆市场的可观份额,因此,进口大豆产地若有任何风吹草动,都能对国内市场产生蝴蝶效应。 

As the imported soybean occupy the soybean market considerable share,therefore,Import soybeans origin if there is any risks,For the domestic market can produce the butterfly effect. 

  与大豆及食用植物油进口激增相对应的是,豆油的价格开始持续下滑,新华社全国农副产品和农资价格行情系统监测则显示,食用油价格目前以降为主,纯大豆油、花生油等品种价格略有回落。而卓创资讯大豆分析师张兰兰对《证券日报》记者表示,从监测情况来看,豆油价格下降明显,以11月12日为例,豆油价格同比已下降7.88%。 

And soybean and edible vegetable oil imports surged corresponding is,Soybean oil prices began to continue to decline,The xinhua news agency the national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price quotations system monitoring is display,Oil price at present mainly to drop,Pure soybean oil/The breed such as peanut oil prices fell slightly.And zhuo and information soybean analysts to xie s-p, xie q[Securities daily]reporters,From monitoring the situation,Soybean oil prices down significantly,On November 12,, for example,Soybean oil prices fell 7.88% year-on-year. 

  对于价格下降的原因,张兰兰认为有三种因素:芝加哥大豆回落的影响、目前正值国内传统需求淡季、棕榈油(6650,108.00,1.65%)低价冲击。“我国大豆和食用油对外依存度偏高,从而导致国内食用油紧随美豆下滑,而年前是否价格回升,则要看需求和美豆情况”。

For the reasons of the decrease of price,Xie s-p, xie q believe that there are three kinds of factors:The effects of soybean back in Chicago/At present domestic demand as the traditional off-season/Palm oil(6650,108.00,1.65%)Low impact."Our country soybean and oil external dependence on the high side,Leading to domestic edible oil followed beauty bean glide,And years ago whether the price picks up,Should see demand and bean situation".



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