尽管世界经济复苏乏力，但随着圣诞假期来临以及我国前期出台的“促外贸、稳增长”政策效果显现，10月份我国出口同比增速继续反弹，今年1~10月累计进出口比去年同期增长6.3%。 

Although the world economic recovery lack of power,But with the Christmas holidays coming as well as our country early on"Promote foreign trade/Steady growth"Policy effect appeared,In October, of our country export year-on-year growth continue to rebound,This year 1 ~ 10 month accumulative total import and export than last year the corresponding period grows 6.3%. 

　　当前外贸运行稳中有升 

The current foreign trade operation have increased slowly 

　　出口增速重回双位数进口增速与上月持平 

Export growth back to double digits imports and flat last month 

　　10月，我国进出口总值3191.5亿美元，同比增长7.3%。其中出口1755.7亿美元，增长11.6%，比上月提高1.7个百分点；进口1435.8亿美元，增长2.4%，与上月持平；贸易顺差319.9亿美元。1~10月累计，进出口总值31625.7亿美元，同比增长6.3%。其中出口增长7.8%，进口增长4.6%；顺差1802.3亿美元。 

October,China import and export (GDP) of us $319.15 billion,Year-on-year growth of 7.3%.The export of $175.57 billion,Growth of 11.6%,Increased by 1.7% than last month;Imported 143.58 billion us dollars,Growth of 2.4%,And previous month;The trade surplus of $31.99 billion.1 ~ 10 months accumulated,Import and export (GDP) of us $3.16257 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 6.3%.Export growth of 7.8%,Imports rose 4.6%;Surplus of $180.23 billion. 

　　主要出口商品较快增长商品结构进一步优化 

Main export commodities fast growth commodity structure was further optimized 

　　10月，机电产品和高新技术产品出口同比分别增长10.1%和13.6%，比上月提高1.6和4.1个百分点。纺织品和服装出口分别增长8.0%和20.5%，比上月提高0.5和10.2个百分点。1～10月，机电产品出口同比增长8.5%，占我国外贸出口总值的57.2%。服装、纺织品、鞋类、家具、塑料制品、箱包和玩具等七大类劳动密集型产品出口占我国外贸出口总值的20.6%。 

October,Mechanical and electrical products and new high-tech product export year-on-year growth of 10.1%, respectively, and 13.6%,More than 1.6 and 4.1% increase last month.Textile and clothing export up by 8.0% and 20.5% respectively,More than 0.5 and 10.2% increase last month.1 ~ 10 months,Mechanical and electrical products export year-on-year growth of 8.5%,Our country foreign trade exports accounted for 57.2% of the total.clothing/textiles/footwear/furniture/Plastic products/Bags and toys seven kind of labor-intensive products exports accounted for 20.6% of the total foreign trade export in our country. 

　　一般贸易进出口增速回落加工贸易进出口增速提升 

General trade import and export growth fell processing trade import and export growth promotion 

　　10月，一般贸易出口同比增长10.1%，较上月放慢2.4个百分点；进口下降6.2%，跌幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点。加工贸易出口和进口同比分别增长3.4%和7.3%，比上月提高4.0和2.0个百分点。1～10月，一般贸易和加工贸易进出口同比分别增长5.5%和2.5%，均低于外贸总体增速。其他贸易方式进出口增长较快，其中海关特殊监管区域物流货物进出口达到2183.3亿美元，同比增长41.9%。 

October,General trade exports year-on-year growth of 10.1%,A slow down 2.4% last month;Imports fell by 6.2%,Fall than expanded by 0.9% last month.Processing trade exports and imports year-on-year growth of 3.4%, respectively, and 7.3%,More than 4.0 and 2.0% increase last month.1 ~ 10 months,General trade and processing trade import and export year-on-year growth of 5.5%, respectively, and 2.5%,Are lower than the overall growth of foreign trade.Other trade mode import and export is growing rapidly,The areas under special customs supervision logistics of the import and export of goods to $218.33 billion,Year-on-year growth of 41.9%. 

　　对新兴市场国家出口出现分化 

For emerging market countries export appear differentiation 

　　10月，我国对美国出口同比增速为9%，较9月提高3.5个百分点；对欧盟出口下降8.1%，降幅缩窄2.6个百分点；对日本出口同比增长1.1%，较9月下降1.1个百分点；对巴西、俄罗斯、印度和南非的出口增速分别为-0.1%、10.9%、-14.9%和14.0%，均低于9月份；对东盟和香港出口同比分别增长44.8%和38.4%，较9月提高19.3和6.7个百分点。 

October,China exports to the United States for 9% year-on-year growth,September is increased by 3.5%;Exports to Europe fell by 8.1%,By constriction 2.6%;Export to Japan a year-on-year increase of 1.1%,A September fell by 1.1%;To Brazil/Russia/India and South Africa's export growth for - 0.1% respectively/10.9%/- 14.9% and 14.0%,Are lower than in September;In asean and Hong Kong exports year-on-year growth of 44.8%, respectively, and 38.4%,September is increased by 19.3 and 6.7%. 

　　内外环境冷暖交织 

Internal and external environment changes in temperature mixed 

　　世界经济复苏动能不足 

The world economic recovery kinetic energy shortage 

　　10月，摩根大通全球制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从9月的48.9%升至49.2%，连续5个月低于50%，显示全球制造业仍处于萎缩区域。但美国和新兴市场制造业已有所改善，美国制造业PMI从9月的51.5%微升至51.7%，已连续两个月反弹并位于荣枯线之上。主要新兴经济体PMI指数环比均回升。欧元区制造业PMI从9月的46.1%降至45.4%，连续15个月低于50%，继续拖累全球制造业复苏。日本10月经季调后的Markit/JMMA制造业PMI从9月的48.0%降至46.9%，连续第5个月低于50%。 

October,Jp Morgan global manufacturing purchasing managers' index(PMI)From September to 48.9%,Continuous five months less than 50%,Display the global manufacturing industry is still in the atrophy area.But the United States and emerging market manufacturing industry, has improved,The United States manufacturing PMI from September 51.5% microliter to 51.7%,Already two consecutive months rebound and is located in the vicissitude on line.The main emerging economies PMI index link all picks up.The eurozone manufacturing PMI from 9 months of 46.1% to 45.4%,Continuous 15 months less than 50%,Continue to drag down global manufacturing recovery.Japan 10 menstrual season after the adjustment of the Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI from 9 months of 48.0% to 46.9%,The fifth consecutive months less than 50%. 

　　欧元区衰退加深。欧元区9月失业率攀升至11.6%。欧元区第一大国——德国经济逐步陷入衰退，9月德国出口环比降2.5%，创9个月来最大降幅，工业产出较8月下降1.8%，降幅均超预期。欧盟委员会（EuropeanCommission）在11月7日发布的《秋季经济展望报告》中将欧元区和欧盟今年经济预期下调至萎缩0.4%和0.25%。 

The eurozone recession deepen.The eurozone September unemployment climbed to 11.6%.The euro area the first power - the German economy gradually into a recession,September German export link drop 2.5%,Gen nine months to maximum drop,Industrial output is August fell by 1.8%,Drop all than expected.The European commission(EuropeanCommission)On nov. 7, released on Tuesday[Autumn economic outlook report]Will the eurozone and European Union economy this year is expected to shrink down to 0.4% and 0.25%. 

　　美国经济温和复苏。美国前三季度的经济增速分别为2%、1.3%和2%。10月季调后非农就业人口增加17.1万人，高于预期的12.5万，失业率小幅反弹至7.9%。美国消费者信心指数从9月的68.4升至72.2，为2008年2月以来的最高值。9月贸易赤字为415亿美元，较8月的438亿美元下降5.1%，创2010年12月以来新低。美国大选尘埃落定，但财政悬崖问题仍存隐患。 

The American economy moderate recovery.The United States in the third quarter before the economic growth was 2%/1.3% and 2%.10 Chinese rose after the adjustment of non-agricultural employment population increase 171000 people,Higher than the 125000 expected,The unemployment rate rebound slightly to 7.9%.The United States consumer confidence index from September 68.4 to 72.2,For 2008 years the fastest since February.September trade deficit for 41.5 billion dollars,A August 43.8 billion the dollar fell 5.1%,And a new low since December 2010.The U.S. presidential election dust settled,But financial cliff problems are still hidden trouble. 

　　日本经济出现负增长。日本第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）初值显示，剔除物价变动因素的实际GDP较上季度下降0.9%，按年率换算为下降3.5%，为三个季度以来首次出现负增长。日元强劲、出口市场疲弱、企业盈利糟糕、人口结构变化将继续制约日本经济的复苏。 

The Japanese economy appear negative growth.Japan's third quarter gross domestic product(GDP)Initial display,Eliminate price variable factors of the actual GDP dropped by 0.9% compared to the previous quarter,According to the annual rate of 3.5% decline,For three quarters for the first time since appear negative growth.Yen strong/Export market weakness/Corporate earnings bad/Population structure change will continue to restrict Japan's economic recovery. 

　　新兴经济体增长缓慢。新兴经济体和发展中国家经济大多持续增长，但是周期性、结构性矛盾和发达国家经济下行的影响将使新兴经济体的增长速度进一步放慢。 

Emerging economies slow growth.Emerging economies and developing countries most of economic growth,But the periodic/Structural contradictions and developed countries economic descending influence will make the speed of growth in the emerging economies slow further. 

　　国内经济有望企稳向好 

The domestic economy is expected to be undermined by stabilising 

　　国内经济企稳迹象明显。投资和工业增速连续两个月反弹，消费品零售总额同比增速创7个月新高。1~10月，固定资产投资同比增长20.7%，创7个月新高，增速比1~9月份加快0.2个百分点。10月份规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长9.6%，创5个月新高，比9月份加快0.4个百分点。社会消费品零售总额同比增长14.5%，创7个月新高，比9月份提高0.3个百分点。居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨1.7%，较9月回落0.2个百分点。工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比下降2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，为5个月来首次环比回升。10月制造业PMI从9月的49.8%升至50.2%，创4个月新高，为7月以来首次回升至荣枯线上。从宏观经济主要指标来看，当前经济已出现企稳迹象，随着政策效果在第四季度逐渐显现，经济有望进一步向好。 

The domestic economy obvious signs of stabilising.Investment and industrial growth rebound for two consecutive months,Total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year growth and seven months highs.1 ~ 10 months,Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth of 20.7%,And seven months high,Increasing ratio 1 ~ 9 months to speed up 0.2%.October above designated size industrial added value year-on-year increase of 9.6% in real terms,Gen five months high,More than 0.4% in September to speed up.Social total retail sales of consumer goods by 14.5% year-on-year growth,And seven months high,More than 0.3% in September.Consumer price index(CPI)Rose 1.7% year-on-year,A drop of 0.2% in September.Industrial producers ex-factory price(PPI)2.8% year-on-year drop,Link up 0.2%,For five months to the first link picks up.October manufacturing PMI from September to 49.8%,Gen 4 months high,For the first time since July rose back to vicissitude online.From the macro economic main indicators,The current economy has appeared signs of stabilising,Along with the policy effect appears gradually in the fourth quarter,The economy is expected to further undermined. 

　　贸易摩擦向新兴产业渗透 

Trade friction to the emerging industry penetration 

　　在经济低迷的背景下，贸易保护主义持续升温，我国面临的贸易摩擦明显增多。前三季度，出口产品遭遇国外贸易救济调查55起，同比增长38%，涉案金额243亿美元。贸易摩擦的领域逐步从传统产业向新兴产业扩展，我国新能源产品成为全球贸易保护的受害者。 

In the background of the economic downturn,Trade protectionism is on the rise,China faces a significant increase in trade friction.The first three quarters,Export products encounter foreign trade remedy investigation 55 up,Year-on-year growth of 38%,Involving a value of $24.3 billion.Trade friction field gradually from traditional industry to expand in emerging industries,The country's new energy products become the victims of trade protection. 

　　全年外贸占全球贸易份额有望微增 

The foreign trade of the global trade share is expected to micro increase 

　　当前，世界经济复苏动能不足，外部需求疲弱，我国外贸发展面临的外部环境复杂严峻。预计全年外贸占全球贸易的份额有望保持稳定或微幅上升。 

The current,The world economic recovery kinetic energy shortage,Weak external demand,Our country foreign trade development face serious external environment complex.Foreign trade is expected to account for the global trade share is expected to remain stable or grow slightly. 

　　出口仍面临较大压力 

Export still face greater pressure 

　　10月我国制造业PMI的新订单指数为50.4%，比上月回升0.6个百分点，是今年5月以来首次回升至临界点以上，表明制造业来自客户的产品订货量由降转升，市场需求有所好转。PMI新出口订单指数由7月的46.6%升至10月的49.3%，连续3个月回升。但仍低于荣枯线之下且回升幅度有所减弱，表明出口增长后劲稍显不足。反映我国消费品市场和出口情况的“义乌小商品景气指数”延续9月回升态势，位于指数基点1000上方。刚刚落幕的秋交会出口成交额较春交会和去年的秋交会分别下降9.3%和13.8%。其中对欧盟、美国、日本成交分别下降10.5%、9.4%、36.6%，显示外需环境依然严峻，未来出口仍面临较大压力。 

October Chinese manufacturing PMI new orders index is 50.4%,More than 0.6% rally last month,Is this year for the first time since may rebound to critical point above,Show that manufacturing from customers products by drop quantity turn up,The market demand better.PMI new export orders index by 46.6% in July to 49.3% in October,Three consecutive months picks up.But it is still less than vicissitude under line and picks up amplitude weakened,Show that export growth stamina insufficient slightly.Reflect our country consumer goods market and export situation"Yiwu small commodity boom index"Continue on September picks up trend,Located in the index above 1000 basis points.Just ring down the curtain of autumn intersection export volume of business is ChunJiaoHui and last year's autumn intersection were down by 9.3% and 13.8%.Among of which the European Union/The United States/Japan clinch a deal were down by 10.5%/9.4%/36.6%,Now display environment is still severe,The future export still face greater pressure. 

　　进口延续低速增长 

Import continued low speed growth 

　　当前，企业的采购意愿有所恢复，内需呈现小幅改善。10月我国制造业PMI中的原材料库存指数为47.3%，比9月回升0.3个百分点，继续位于临界点以下，表明制造业原材料库存持续减少，但降幅略有收窄。主要原材料购进价格指数在连续3个月回升后达到54.3%，生产资料价格正增长的趋势更加确立。PMI进口指数为48.4%，比9月回升0.7个百分点，仍未能突破枯荣线，显示进口回暖的态势仍较微弱。考虑到国内经济筑底企稳态势进一步巩固，进口增速有望维持低速增长格局。 

The current,Enterprise purchase intend to restore somewhat,Domestic demand present small improvement.October the Chinese manufacturing PMI raw material inventory index was 47.3%,September than 0.3% rally,Continue to is located in the point of no return,Show that manufacturing raw material inventory continue to decrease,But a drop slightly narrow.Main raw material purchase price index for at least 3 months after back up to 54.3%,The means of production prices are the trend of growth more established.PMI import index was 48.4%,September than 0.7% rally,Failed to break through vicissitudes line,Display import milder trend is still weak.Considering the domestic economic situation build bottom stabilises further consolidate,Import growth is expected to maintain a low growth pattern. 

　　形势倒逼产业转型升级 

The situation DaoBi transformation and upgrading of industry 

　　目前形势倒逼外贸企业尽快调整产品结构、转变发展方式。要有针对性地帮助企业克服困难，增强信心，培育外贸竞争新优势，实现产业转型升级，保持外贸稳定增长。 

Current situation DaoBi foreign trade enterprise product structure adjustment as soon as possible/Transformation development mode.To targeted to help enterprise to overcome difficulties,Enhance confidence,Cultivate new foreign trade competition advantage,To realize the transformation and upgrading of industry,Maintain the stable growth of foreign trade. 

　　切实落实已出台的各项政策措施，同时做好相关政策储备。创新开放模式，探索进一步对外开放的方式方法，例如可在条件成熟的地区探索开展与国际通行规则接轨的自由贸易园区试点；继续加大外贸转型升级支持力度；鼓励企业发展具有自主知识产权、低能耗、核心竞争力的“拳头产品”、“拳头行业”。 

Earnestly implement various policy measures already published,At the same time make relevant policy reserves.Innovation open mode,To explore the further opening method,For example, can be in conditions mature areas to carry out exploration with the international prevailing rules standards in the free trade zone pilot;Continue to increase the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade support;Encourage enterprise development with independent intellectual property rights/Low energy consumption/Core competitiveness of"Fist products"/"Fist industry". 

　　完善互利共赢、多元平衡、安全高效的开放型经济体系。加快转变对外贸易发展方式，坚持进口和出口并重，提高利用外资综合优势和总体效益，加快“走出去”步伐，统筹双边、多边、区域、次区域开放合作，提高抵御国际经济风险能力。 

Perfect mutual benefit and win-win results/Multiple equilibrium/Safety and efficiency of the open economy system.To speed up the transform the development mode of foreign trade,Adhere to the import and export pay equal attention to,Improve the utilization of foreign capital comprehensive advantages and overall efficiency,To speed up the"Go out"pace,Overall bilateral/multilateral/area/Open sub-regional cooperation,Improve the ability to resist international economic risks. 

　　大力推动外贸领域绿色低碳发展。密切跟踪和研究分析各主要贸易对象推出的绿色低碳贸易政策，引导外贸企业顺应形势，积极发展绿色低碳产品，鼓励节能环保产品进出口。 

Vigorously promote foreign trade field green low carbon development.Closely tracking and analysis the main trade object launched the green low carbon trade policy,Guide the foreign trade enterprise conform to the situation,Actively developing green low carbon products,To encourage energy conservation and environmental protection products import and export. 

　　（作者系商务部研究院研究员、博士）

(The author is the ministry of commerce research institute researcher/doctor)