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中美欧光伏贸易战未必多输--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-11-15
当地时间11月7日,美国国际贸易委员会认定从中国进口的晶体硅光伏电池及组件实质性损害了美国相关产业,美国将对此类产品征收“双反”关税。紧随美国的步伐,欧盟在11月8日发布公告,称已对从中国光伏企业进口的硅片、电池、组件启动反补贴调查。
Local time on November 7,United States international trade commission that imports from China of crystalline silicon pv cell and element substantial damage to the relevant industries,The United States will impose for this type of product"Double reverse"tariff.Followed the pace of the United States,The European Union on November 8th, by way of a public announcement,Said to have from China pv enterprises import silicon wafer/battery/Component start countervailing investigation.
而在此前的11月1日,中国商务部宣布,对欧盟太阳能级多晶硅料进行“双反”调查。11月5日,中国就欧盟部分成员国的光伏补贴措施,正式启动世贸争端解决程序。
After November 1,The ministry of commerce has announced,The European Union the sun level polysilicon materials"Double reverse"survey.On November 5,China is a part of the eu member states of photovoltaic subsidy measures,Official start the wto dispute settlement procedures.
由此,由美国挑起,欧盟紧随,中国无奈反制的光伏贸易战,已经打响。这场光伏领域的三国杀,涉案金额超过200亿美元,备受各国关注。业内人士的一致看法是,美国对中国光伏产品的贸易制裁,对中国光伏产业而言是伤筋;如果欧盟效仿美国对中国光伏产品征收“双反”关税,则将是动骨。
this,Start by the United States,The European Union in,China's helpless counterspell of photovoltaic trade war,Has started.The pv field of triple kill,Involving a value more than 20 billion dollars,The concern in all countries.The personage inside course of study is the consensus,The United States on China pv product trade sanctions,To China pv industry, is hurt bar;If the eu to follow the United States on China pv product collection"Double reverse"tariff,Will be moving bone.
中国是光伏组件加工大国,欧盟是最大的光伏市场,美国是高速发展的光伏市场,欧盟、美国是多晶硅原料和光伏设备的最大输出地。从这点看,光伏业已经是全球一盘棋。因此,贸易战打响,从短期的直接结果看,三方都要为此付出代价,多输的结果在所难免。
China is photovoltaic component processing power,The European Union is the largest photovoltaic market,The United States is the rapid development of photovoltaic market,The European Union/The United States is polycrystalline silicon materials and photovoltaic equipment maximum output.Seen in this way,Photovoltaic industry is already global a game of chess.therefore,Trade war began,In the short term, the direct result of watch,Three party is required to pay the price,Many lose result unavoidable.
这一点,不但国内的光伏企业认同,中国商务部认同,就连美国、德国的光伏企业也多次抗议“双反”调查,指出贸易保护主义对光伏产品的消费者和生产者都没有好处,将导致多输结果。
this,Not only the domestic photovoltaic enterprise identity,China's ministry of commerce identity,Even the United States/German photovoltaic enterprise also many protests"Double reverse"survey,Pointed out that trade protectionism photovoltaic products to consumers and producers are not good,Will lead to the loss results.
但是,笔者认为,从更长远的眼光来看,对中国光伏产业而言,这次的多方贸易战,颇有塞翁失马焉知非福的味道!
but,The author thinks that,From a long-term point of view,To China for pv industry,The various trade war,Quite have the taste of the embargos!
尽管光伏产业被戴上了战略性新兴产业的光环,但从中国光伏产业的现状看,依然摆脱不了来料加工的本质。庞大的产能主要集中在利润低廉的光伏组件环节,而90%的市场都在海外,这使得中国光伏产业一直处于畸形发展状态。而这次贸易战的出现,则会产生倒逼效应,逼迫国内光伏企业淘汰落后产能,向上游(光伏设备)和下游(光伏电站运营)拓展,促进国内光伏企业的科技创新,提升行业竞争力。
Although photovoltaic industry is put on the strategic emerging industry aura,But from the present situation of China pv industry to see,Still can't get away from the essence of processing.Large capacity mainly concentrated in the low profit of the pv module link,And 90% of the market in overseas,This makes China pv industry has been in a state of development deformity.This time the emergence of a trade war,Then can produce the DaoBi effect,Persecuted the domestic photovoltaic enterprise elimination of backward production capacity,upstream(Photovoltaic equipment)And downstream(Photovoltaic power station operation)expand,To promote the domestic photovoltaic enterprise technology innovation,Improve the profession competitive power.
与此同时,贸易战在导致海外市场关闭大门的同时,将大大推动国内市场的启动。近期以来,国家持续出台推动光伏内需市场启动的扶持性政策和举措。国家电网10月26日宣布,将全面收购10千伏及以下,且单个并网装机容量不超过6兆瓦的光伏发电项目的富余电力;11月初,商务部、国家能源局、财政部、工信部等四部委和36家银行机构代表在河北保定召开秘密会议,表示对光伏企业提供资金上的支持;11月10日,财政部、科技部、住建部、国家能源局联合发布通知,将于今年年底前再次启动一批金太阳示范项目……
meanwhile,Trade war in the lead to overseas markets shut the gate at the same time,Will greatly promote the domestic market start.Since recent,Countries continue to promote domestic demand on photovoltaic market start supportive policies and measures.The state grid announced on October 26,,Will buy-out 10 kv and below,And a single grid installed capacity for no more than 6 megawatts of photovoltaic power generation project surplus power;Early November,The ministry of commerce/National energy bureau/The ministry of finance/Work letter department and so on four ministries and commissions and 36 Banks organization representative in hebei baoding held a secret meeting,Said on photovoltaic enterprises to provide financial support;On November 10th,The ministry of finance/Ministry of science and technology/Live JianBu/National energy bureau jointly issued notice,By the end of the year again before starting a batch of golden sun demonstration project...
一系列扶持政策的出台,不能说与越来越严峻的贸易战没有关系。也就是说,在贸易战的倒逼效应下,一直以来都难以真正启动的国内市场,有望迎来蓬勃发展。这对国内光伏企业来说,无疑是一重大利好;对中国光伏产业的健康发展而言,也是长期利好,将有助于中国光伏业的可持续健康发展。
A series of supporting policies come on stage,Can't say with more and more severe trade war no relationship.That is,A trade war in the DaoBi effect,Have been difficult to really start of the domestic market,Is expected to usher in rapid development.The domestic photovoltaic enterprise speaking,Is undoubtedly a major positive;In China the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry is concerned,Also is the long-term bullish,It will help China pv industry sustainable healthy development.
因此,目前的贸易战,带给国内光伏企业的可能是短痛。那些具备真正竞争力的企业,在熬过了这个冬天之后,有望迎来一个春意盎然的黄金季节;而那些抗寒能力不足的光伏企业,则可能面临被淘汰的命运,这是市场竞争的自然法则。
therefore,The current trade war,Bring the domestic photovoltaic enterprise may be short pain.Those who have real competitiveness of the enterprise,Survived after this winter,Is expected to usher in a golden season of spring;And those who fight cold ability insufficient photovoltaic enterprise,May be facing the fate of elimination,This is the natural law of market competition.
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