夏心愉

Summer heart please

　　当全球目光聚焦于欧洲的经济困境、美国的新一轮经济刺激计划时，绕不开的美元、欧元风险也让旧有国际货币体系的可持续性再度遭到质疑。而此时，人民币正在其迈向国际化的道路上加速前行——在过去的一年中，人民币汇率走向均衡、回流机制逐渐打通、内地资本市场稳步开放、汇率与利率市场化均有推进。

As the global focus in Europe's economic problems/The United States the new round of economic stimulus plan,Is not open around the dollars/The euro risk also let the old international monetary system sustainability questioned again.the,RMB is its stepping to the internationalization of the road accelerating forward - in the past year,The exchange rate for the renminbi to equilibrium/Return mechanism gradually get through/The mainland capital market opening steadily/Exchange rate and interest rate marketization are propulsion.

　　作为一名市场观察者，汇丰中国人民币国际化业务总监宋誉安(Andrew Sutton)感触颇多。他在接受《第一财经日报》专访时表示，人民币和全球经济间的壁垒正逐步瓦解。从结算方面分析，他预测，人民币将在三年内跻身全球三大贸易结算货币行列。

As a market observer,HSBC China RMB internationalization business director SongYu Ann(Andrew Sutton)Feeling quite a lot.He told[The first financial daily]Interview said,The yuan and the global economy the barriers between is gradually collapse.Analysis from the settlement,He predicted,The yuan will be in three years, the top three global trade settlement currency ranks.

　　两大壁垒瓦解

Two big barriers collapse

　　第一财经日报：回顾今年，人民币在国际化方面政策措施很多、进展很大。从你业内的角度来看，有哪些转变是最为关键的？

The first financial daily:Review this year,RMB internationalization in many policies and measures/Great progress.From your industry's point of view,What change is the most crucial?

　　宋誉安：我更愿意把关注点落在两样东西上，这两样曾是人民币和全球经济之间的某种“壁垒”，而现在，两大壁垒正逐步瓦解。

SongYu Ann:I like to focus on two things fall in,This different was the yuan and the global economy among some"barriers",And now,Two big barriers is gradually collapse.

　　第一，是“息差的消失”，这可以算是人民币国际化进程中又一个有意义的里程碑。今年下半年初，中国内地五年期政府债券与海外交易所买卖的国债息差已收窄至仅9个点，而在一年前，两者的息差接近300个点。债券收益率逐步趋于一致，也是外部市场对人民币国际化取得的进展投下的信心一票。

The first,is"Spreads the disappearance of the",This can be in the process of RMB internationalization and a significant milestone.At the beginning of the second half of this year,The Chinese mainland five-year government bonds and foreign exchange business spreads national debt has narrowed to only 9 points,And in a year ago,Both carry close to 300 points.Bond yields gradually tend to be consistent,But also the external market for RMB internationalization progress has cast a vote of confidence.

　　第二，是随着人民币自2005年以来已经对一揽子货币升值了30%，市场已普遍认为人民币汇率达到均衡点。如今货币的流入已经趋于平衡，贸易顺差回落到只占GDP的2%，经常账户盈余的GDP占比也只占不到3%。当市场不再争议人民币被结构性低估，人民币的故事也就随之进入了新的章节。

The second,As the yuan since 2005 has a package of currency appreciation by 30%,The market has generally thought that the RMB exchange rate to achieve break-even point.Now the currency inflows have tend to be balance,The trade surplus dropped to only 2% of GDP,The size of the current-account surplus of GDP than only accounts for less than 3%.When the market no longer dispute the yuan is structural underestimate,The story goes into a new chapter.

　　日报：国际市场是否注意到人民币国际化的巨大潜力，有相应的配合？

daily:The international market ever noticed the great potential of RMB internationalization,Have accordingly?

　　宋誉安：随着今年以来中国在推动人民币国际化方面不断取得进展，整个国际市场应当认识到国际经济架构也须与时俱进，以配合这方面的转变。首先，市场对寻找能够替代美元的货币的需求日渐增加。彼得森国际经济研究所近期的研究显示，人民币已取代美元成为大多数东亚经济体最重要的参考货币，这种趋势很可能正在加速。

SongYu Ann:As this year in promoting China since RMB internationalization headway,The whole international market should be realized the international economic structure must keep pace with The Times,In support of this transformation.First of all,Market for looking for alternative dollars money demand has been increasing.Peterson institute for international economics recent studies show that,The yuan has already overtaken U.S. dollars into most east Asian economies to the most important reference currency,This trend are likely to accelerate.

　　其次，中国央行已与蒙古、韩国、日本、澳大利亚及其他国家签订货币掉期交易，而包括尼日利亚及智利在内的一些国家已开始以人民币作为储备货币。对国际社会来说，必须承认，三足鼎立的全球储备机制将会更为稳健，尤其是考虑到欧洲和美国当前的不明朗情况，更需要采取积极和实质的措施来支持中国推动人民币国际化。

secondly,China's central bank has and Mongolia/South Korea/Japan/Australia and other countries signed currency swap transaction,And including Nigeria and Chile, some countries have started to renminbi as the reserve currency.For to the international community,Must admit,A situation of tripartite confrontation of the global reserve system will be more robust,Especially considering the Europe and the United States the current uncertain situation,More needs to take positive and substantial measures to support China's push RMB internationalization.

　　香港人民币存款下降反证国际化成功

Hong Kong RMB deposit down counterevidence international success

　　日报：人民币国际化还可从离岸中心的建设来观察。在这方面，不少观点认为今年伦敦正推进成为继香港后第二个人民币离岸中心颇具意义。

daily:RMB internationalization can be taken from the construction of the offshore centres to observe.In this respect,Many ideas that this year the London is promoting Hong Kong became the after the second an offshore RMB centre has significance.

　　宋誉安：伦敦建设人民币离岸中心的意义在于，伦敦与香港处在不同时区，因此可在当地市场时段向欧洲和部分美洲市场参与者提供流动性，这将扩大人民币全球流动性。汇丰银行今年4月就在伦敦首发了人民币债券，并获得当地投资者热烈反响。现在伦敦的人民币业务已经初具规模，主要客户是大型国际银行，范围有企业、零售、同业和机构业务等。

SongYu Ann:London building an offshore RMB centre significance lies in,London and Hong Kong in a different time zone,So in the local market time to Europe and part of the American market participants to provide liquidity,It will expand the global liquidity.HSBC bank in April this year in London started of RMB bonds,And access to local investors enthusiastic responses.Now the RMB business in London has begun to take shape,The main customer is a large international Banks,Range have enterprise/retail/Trade and agency business, etc.

　　日报：伦敦的人民币业务起航是国际化推进的一个写照，但香港人民币存款萎缩会不会又是一个反面证据？最新数据显示，香港9月份人民币存款再减1.2%，这是否说明市场对人民币国际化兴趣减弱？

daily:London is set sail RMB business internationalization propelled a snapshot,But Hong Kong RMB deposit will atrophy is a negative evidence?The latest statistics show,Hong Kong September RMB deposit to minus 1.2%,Does it mean the market for less interest in RMB internationalization?

　　宋誉安：我们的观点正相反：存款增长放缓是人民币国际化取得成功而非减弱的表现。今年香港的人民币存款一直在5500亿元左右盘旋，低于去年年底的高位，而八九月份还继续有所减少。离岸人民币存款减少的原因包括，投机性质的资金随着人民币汇价趋向均衡而逐渐在市场消失，还有部分资金则跨境回流至在岸市场。

SongYu Ann:Our point of view on the contrary:Deposit growth is RMB internationalization success rather than diminished performance.This year, Hong Kong's RMB deposit has been hovering around 550 billion yuan,Less than the end of last year's high,And eight September continue to decreased.Offshore RMB deposit reduced causes include,Speculation fund with the RMB exchange rate tends to equilibrium and gradually disappeared in the market,And part of the funds is cross-border return to the market.

　　点心债券市场的增长也有所放缓，但总规模仍然在不断增加。与此同时，中国内地债券市场的吸引力正在不断增加。由于内地债券在回报、深度和多样性上更胜一筹，预计将获得更多投资者青睐。基于此，我们相信离岸人民币(CNH)基准收益率最终将会高于在岸人民币(CNY)的基准收益率。

Snack bond market growth is slowing,But the total scale is still rising.meanwhile,Mainland China bond market appeal is increasing.Due to the mainland bonds in return/The more depth and variety,Is expected to get more investors favor.Based on this,We believe that the offshore RMB(CNH)The benchmark rate of return will eventually will be higher than the RMB(CNY)Benchmark rate of return.

　　日报：人民币的跨境结算使用是其国际化议程中的重要方面，汇丰在助力企业跨境贸易中，在这方面有怎样的独到观察？

daily:RMB settlement of cross-border use is an important aspect in the international agenda,HSBC in power enterprise cross-border trade,In this respect what is the original observations?

　　宋誉安：我们近期做过一项人民币跨境业务调查，结果显示出于日常业务便利选择人民币的内地企业比去年有了显著增长，而因升值预期选择人民币的企业则少于去年。与此同时，海外企业开展人民币业务的便利度大为改善。这反映了人民币的跨境使用日趋成熟，不断简化的人民币跨境业务流程已让企业感受到使用人民币的便利性，该趋势也证明人民币国际化是一个由中国的经济和贸易发展所推动的自然发展过程。

SongYu Ann:We recently done a RMB cross-border business investigation,Results show that the daily business of convenient choice yuan mainland companies have significant growth than last year,And because of the expected future appreciation of the yuan choose enterprises are less than last year.meanwhile,Overseas enterprise conduct the renminbi business degree of convenience greatly improve.This reflects the value of the yuan on cross-border use matures,Continuously simplified RMB cross-border business process already let enterprise experience the convenience of use renminbi,This trend also prove RMB internationalization is a by China's economic and trade development promote natural development process.

　　我们预测，人民币正稳步迈向世界主要贸易货币的行列，到2015年，以人民币结算的贸易额占中国对外贸易总额的比重将有望从目前的10%左右上升至三分之一，届时人民币将跻身全球三大贸易结算货币行列。

We forecast,RMB is moving steadily toward the world's major trade currency ranks,By 2015,The volume of trade in RMB settlement accounts for the proportion of China's foreign trade volume is expected to rise from the current 10% to a third,When the yuan will be the top three global trade settlement currency ranks.