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日元升值趋势难改 日本企业艰难拼出口--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-11-30

  近期,日本提前进行大选以及日本央行进一步宽松的预期不断升温,日元持续走弱,饱受日元升值之苦的日本企业能否迎来转机?

recent,Japan, with a general election in advance and the bank of Japan further loose expected increase,Yen weak,The Japanese yen appreciation from the suffering of the Japanese enterprise can usher in transit?

  日元升值趋势难改

The Japanese yen appreciation trend is hard to reform

  自日本主要在野党领袖安倍晋三11月15日首次提出其货币政策纲领以来,美元兑日元汇率累计上涨3%。市场非常期待安倍晋三能推行更为激进的刺激政策,而其本人也许诺一旦成为日本首相,将效仿美国的第三轮量化宽松(QE3),采取无限额货币宽松政策,力争使日本通胀率达到2%至3%。

Since Japan's main opposition leader, shinzo Abe, November 15, first puts forward the monetary policy since the program,Against the yen, the dollar exchange rate has risen by 3%.Market really looking forward to shinzo Abe can implement more aggressive stimulus policy,And its I also promised once as Japan's prime minister,The United States will follow the example of the third round of the quantitative easing(QE3),Take no limit monetary easing,Strive to make Japan inflation at 2% to 3%.

  日本央行行长白川方明日前表示,日本央行将继续放宽货币政策,并强烈希望日本政府采取大胆举措提振经济增长潜力。白川方明还表示,货币政策是影响汇率的方式之一,但汇率并不完全由货币政策决定,近期日元贬值并未缓和日本企业面临的问题,日本央行的宽松政策有助于避免日元走强。

The bank of Japan governor BaiChuan FangMing has said,The bank of Japan will continue to relax monetary policy,And strong hope that the Japanese government bold action boost economic growth potential.BaiChuan FangMing also said,Monetary policy affects exchange rate is one of the ways,But the currency is not completely by monetary policy decision,The weak yen recent did not ease Japanese enterprises are faced with the problem,The bank of Japan loose policy can help to avoid a stronger yen.

  然而,法兴银行分析师容克斯表示,让日元贬值说起来容易做起来难。事实上,过去10年里,日本央行无数次干预汇市,购入美元拉低日元,再将获得的美元用来购买短期美债,从而压低美国两年期国债收益率,而这又推高了日元。有分析人士表示,动荡的政局及疲软的经济数据令投资者对日本经济的忧虑加重,并强化了市场对日本央行扩大宽松规模的预期,让日元短期内承压走低,但升值的趋势依然未改。

however,Method hing bank analysts let hicks said,Let the weak yen easily said but very hard to do.In fact,In the past 10 years,The bank of Japan countless times intervention,Buying dollars down the yen,Then will get us dollar to buy short-term debt beauty,Thus down the United States two 10-year Treasury yields,And this also is pushing up the yen.Have analysts said,Political unrest and weak economic data to investors to Japanese economic worry aggravating,And to strengthen the market for the bank of Japan to expand the scale of loose expected,Let the yen in the short term confined low,But the upward trend is still not changed.

  在昨日的亚洲交易时段,美国财政悬崖阴影也令东京市场不安,日元再度走强,美元兑日元汇率跌破82水平,日经225指数下跌1.22%。三菱东京日联银行全球外汇研究首席分析师Minori Uchida表示,日元近期的下跌行情可能已走到尽头,下跌动能逐步耗尽。有日本大型银行的资深交易商认为,对冲基金已获利回吐,日元将再度走强。

In yesterday's trading session in Asia,The United States financial cliff shadow also makes Tokyo market uneasy,The yen stronger again,Against the yen, the dollar exchange rate fell below 82 levels,The nikkei 225 index fell 1.22%.Mitsubishi ufj Tokyo bank global foreign exchange research chief analyst Minori Uchida said,The yen recent downturns may have come to an end,Fall kinetic energy gradually exhausted.Japan has a large bank senior traders think,Hedge funds have profit taking,The yen will stronger again.

  日本制造业风光不再?

Japanese manufacturing scenery no longer?

  市场数据显示,过去5年里日元兑美元的升值幅度超过30%,重创了日本引以为傲的制造业出口,大量公司外包生产导致日本贸易逆差,特别是日本家用电器三巨头如今齐齐跌落深渊。

Market data display,The past five years the yen against the dollar has risen by more than 30%,Hit Japan proud manufacturing export,A large number of companies outsourcing production lead to a Japanese trade deficit,Especially in Japan household appliances three giant now qi qi fell off the deep.

  评级机构惠誉在对夏普的评级意见中写道,夏普的核心业务在短期至中期内不会出现任何有实际意义的扭转,这既是由于市场地位的下降,也是由于强势日元导致的价格竞争力下滑。

Fitch ratings agencies in the sharp rating wrote in the opinion,Sharp's core business in the short to medium term won't appear any practical torsion,This is because the market status of the decline,But also because of the strong yen lead to price competition glide.

  不过,日本官方经济调查数据显示,日本60%的中小型出口商受到了去年日元升值的拖累,其余40%则没有受到影响,甚至因日元升值而受惠,包括以制造精密陀螺仪和传感器著称的多摩川精机在内的拥有尖端技术水平的日本制造企业,都在日元升值的打击下存活了下来。

but,Japanese official economic survey data show,Japan's 60% of the small and medium-sized exporters by last year the Japanese yen appreciation of drag,The remaining 40% is not affected,Even for the Japanese yen appreciation and benefit,Including to manufacture precision gyroscope and sensor for the more sichuan fine machine, has the advanced technical level of Japanese manufacturing enterprise,In the Japanese yen appreciation blow survive down.

  多摩川精机并不是唯一的例子,生产用于圆珠笔圆形弹簧的日本Mikuro Spring公司,其产品占有率达全球市场的70%。有分析人士表示,日元汇率固然重要,但并不是日本制造企业衰落的核心因素,一些拥有尖端技术水平的日本制造企业,都在日元迅猛升值打击下存活了下来,且活得很好。

The more sichuan fine machine is not the only example,Production used for ball pen round spring of the Japanese Mikuro Spring company,Its products in the global market share of 70%.Have analysts said,The Japanese yen exchange rate is important,But is not made in Japan enterprise the core factor of decline,Some have advanced technical level of Japanese manufacturing enterprise,In the rapid appreciation of the yen hit survive down,And live very good.

  而在昨日,有消息指出,索尼公司至少与三家投行接触以出售电池业务。索尼希望剥离外围资产,专注复兴消费电子产品业务。

But in yesterday,Sources also say,SONY company with at least three investment Banks to sell battery business contact.SONY hope stripping peripheral assets,Focus Renaissance consumer electronics business.



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