网易财经联合18家知名券商机构对CPI、信贷、进出口等数据进行了预测，调查显示，11月CPI预测值较10月回升，时隔两个月后将重回2时代，为2.1%。PPI预测均值为-2.0%，延续10月份以来的回升势头。11月新增贷款预测值和10月持平，预测均值为5387亿。出口回落，预测均值为8.5%，大幅低于10月11.6%的出口增速。

Netease financial joint and well-known brokers agencies to the CPI/credit/Import and export data is forecasted,Investigation shows that,November CPI predicted value is back in October,After two months later will be back 2 times,2.1%.PPI prediction mean for - 2.0%,Continue the momentum since October back.November new loans and October as predicted,The mean forecast for 538.7 billion.Export back,Prediction was an average of 8.5%,Significantly less than 11.6% of the export growth in October.

　　10月出口同比增长11.6%，高于市场预期，调查显示，11月份出口难以延续10月份的好势头，11月份出口增速小幅下降，同比增8.9%。

October exports year-on-year growth of 11.6%,Higher than the market expected,Investigation shows that,November export difficult to continue the good momentum in October,November export growth fell slightly,Increased by 8.9% year-on-year.

　　出口走势存分歧

Export tendency with differences

　　调查显示，11月出口同比增速预测均值为8.9%，最小值为6.0%，最大值为13.1%。预测均值低于10月商务部公布的11.6%。

Investigation shows that,November exports year-on-year growth forecast was an average of 8.9%,Minimum value is 6.0%,Maximum value is 13.1%.Forecast average less than 11.6% of the ministry of commerce announced in October.

　　交通银行认为从主要贸易伙伴的领先指标看，10月美国芝加哥和供应管理协会PMI均继续出现反弹，欧元区PMI则略有回落，预示外需稳中有增。在欧洲经济下滑放缓、美国经济温和复苏的大背景下，外部需求的季节性回暖有望推动11月份出口增速继续回升。

Bank of communications from the main trading partners that the leading indicators to see,October Chicago and the institute for supply management PMI all continue to rebound,The eurozone PMI is a little back,Now predict stability is on the increase.In the European economic downturn slowed/The American economy under the background of moderate recovery,External demand seasonal thaw in November is expected to promote the export growth continued to rebound.

　　华泰联合同样认为临近年末，欧美假期消费旺盛，美国消费信心指数创出近年以来新高，将对出口有一定拉动效益。同时，8月以来的PMI新出口订单指数连续两个月反弹，亦表明出口将企稳。同时，8月以来的PMI新出口订单指数连续两个月反弹，亦表明出口将企稳。

Huatai joint also think is near the end of the year,Europe and the United States holiday consumption vigorous,U.S. consumer confidence index makes since recent years record,To export have certain pull benefit.At the same time,Since August of the PMI index of new export orders for two consecutive months rebound,Also show that exports will be stabilises.At the same time,Since August of the PMI index of new export orders for two consecutive months rebound,Also show that exports will be stabilises.

　　兴业银行对于出口则不乐观，预计11月出口增速和10月相比，将大幅减速5.5个百分点。从中国出口集装箱运输市场情况看，11 月主要航线逐步进入传统淡季，货量持续走低；另外，基数较高也将拖累出口同比读数回落；再结合基础原材料及矿产资源价格走势情况来看，11月出口不甚乐观。

Societe generale for export is not optimistic,November is expected to export growth compared with October,Will greatly reduction of 5.5%.Export from China container transportation market to see,11 On the main route gradually entered the traditional low season,Cargo keep falling;In addition,Higher base will drag down the export up reading;Combined with basic raw materials and mineral resources price trend situation,November export not very optimistic.

　　同样不乐观的还有招商证券，虽然临近西方传统节日，外需将季节性好转，但广交会成交

Also not optimistic and China merchants securities,Although is near the western traditional festivals,Overseas market demand will be seasonal better,But Canton fair deal

　　额同比下降，显示外需好转相当有限，故四季度出口增速将略低于10%。

Frontal year-on-year drop,Now show better is rather limited,The fourth quarter export growth will be slightly less than 10%.

　　进口可能保持疲弱

Imports may remain weak

　　调查显示，11月进口同比增速预测均值为2.7%，最小值为-2.8%，最大值为5.8%。预测均值高于10月统计局公布的2.4%的增长率。

Investigation shows that,November import year-on-year growth forecast was an average of 2.7%,Minimum value is 2.8%,Maximum value is 5.8%.The mean prediction than October bureau of statistics released the growth rate of 2.4%.

　　从领先指标看，10月份中国官方PMI进口细分项由降转升，延续了历时3个月的反弹态势，预示11月进口同比增速将进一步回升。投资需求的复苏有望带动进口增速继续反弹。

From leading indicators to see,In October, China's official PMI import subdivision survey by drop turn up,Continuation of the last three months of the rebound,Indicate November import year-on-year growth will further back.Investment demand recovery is expected to drive the imports continue to rebound.

　　瑞银证券认为鉴于国内投资需求回暖且去库存压力有所缓解，实际进口量环比可能已恢复增长。不过，大宗商品价格近期下跌以及去年较高的基数可能会导致进口额同比增速较低，估计11月同比增长3%。

Ubs securities that in view of the domestic investment demand milder and inventory pressure to ease,The actual import link may has returned to growth.but,Commodity prices fell last year in the near future and higher base may lead to lower import year-on-year growth,Estimated November year-on-year growth of 3%.

　　国泰君安认为随着人民币稳步升值，国内经济进入上行周期，国内需求增加使得进口增速逐步上升。预计11月份进口增长5.7%，相比10月份回升明显。

Guotai junan think with RMB steady appreciation,The domestic economy into ascending cycle,Domestic demand increase makes imports to rise gradually.Is expected to import growth 5.7% in November,Compared with October picks up significantly.

　　至于未来进口走势，招商证券认为内需持续偏弱，稳增长政策对需求的促进存在时滞。未来进口能否稳定回升取决于经济的形态。但今年以来进口持续偏弱，预计四季度进口增速也不会有太大改善。

As for the future trend of import,China merchants securities that continued weak domestic demand,Steady growth policy on demand to promote the existing delay.The future can import stable rebound depends on economic form.But since this year for weak imports,The fourth quarter is expected to import growth also won't have too big improvement.

　　贸易顺差收窄

The trade surplus narrowed

　　11月的贸易顺差预测均值低于10月的贸易顺差额，调查显示，11月贸易顺差为258亿美元，最小值为214亿美元，最大值为306亿美元。至于未来走势，招商证券认为全球需求不旺，我国贸易条件改善，贸易顺差呈现扩大之势。(马曼)

November's trade surplus predicted mean less than ten months ShunChaE trade,Investigation shows that,November trade surplus for 25.8 billion dollars,Minimum of $21.4 billion,Maximum value for 30.6 billion dollars.As for the future trend,China merchants securities believe that global demand,Our country's trade conditions improve,The trade surplus present expand the potential.(MaMan)