中国不断下降的人口红利，加上“入世”效应的逐步递减，都表明外贸将难以为中国经济提供新的增长动力。这要求中国需要对现行贸易政策进行较大幅度的调整。此外，中国也需要推进全方位的结构性改革以获得“改革红利”。

China's falling demographic dividend,plus"wto"Effect of gradually decline,That foreign trade will be difficult for China's economy provide new growth power.This requires that China needs to the current trade policy adjustment is greatly.In addition,China also needs to promote all-directional structural reform to achieve"Reform bonus".

　　中国11月进出口数据昨天公布，在明显高于预期的工业增加值数据发布后，市场普遍预期11月的贸易数据仍然会延续此前的强劲走势。然而，最终数据则显示，中国11月进出口数据均明显低于市场预期，其中出口同比增长2.9%，低于上月的11.6%和市场预期的9.0%，市场本希望11月中国出口总值将再度突破历史峰值的预期也完全落空。进口则同比零增长，低于上月的2.4%。进出口相抵，中国在11月录得贸易顺差196亿美元，大幅低于上月的320亿美元。

China's November import and export data released yesterday,In the obvious higher than expected industrial added value after the data were released,The market generally expected November trade data will still continue had strong trend.however,The final data display,China's November import and export data were significantly lower than market expectations,The export year-on-year growth of 2.9%,Less than 11.6% of the last month and 9.0% of the market expectations,Market this hope November China exports will again break through historical peak expected also completely lost.Imports up zero growth,Less than 2.4% of the last month.Import and export balance,China in November record trade surplus of $19.6 billion,Significantly less than the $32 billion last month.

　　国别数据显示，中国对美国的出口增速出现了少有的负数，同比负增长2.6%，大大低于上月的11.0%，对欧盟的出口则进一步下滑至－18.0%，再次跌入两位数区间，也低于上月的－8.1%。此外，中国对中国香港、东盟以及中国台湾的出口则分别同比增长35.2%、19.3%以及27.9%。根据进口量统计，中国11月原油和铁矿石进口同比增长3.0%和2.5%，低于上月的13.8%和13.0%，但大豆进口同比下降了27.0%，显著低于上月的5.8%。

Allocated data display,China's exports to America growth appeared less negative,Fell by 2.6% year-on-year,Much lower than the 11.0% last month,The European Union's exports have further down to 18.0%,Once again fell into two digits interval,Also lower than last month's 8.1%.In addition,China to Hong Kong, China/Asean and China Taiwan's export respectively year-on-year growth of 35.2%/19.3% and 27.9%.According to the statistics of imports,China's November crude oil and iron ore import year-on-year growth of 3.0% and 2.5%,Less than 13.8% and 13.0% of the last month,But soybean imports fell 27.0% year-on-year,Significantly lower than 5.8% last month.

　　海关公布的经过季节性调整的数据表明，中国11月出口和进口分别环比下滑3.2%和6.6%。

Published by the customs after seasonal adjustment data show,China's November exports and imports fell 3.2% and 6.6% respectively link.

　　按照这样的表现，今年中国全年贸易增长10%的目标已经难以完成。笔者预计，中国出口将在今年增长8%，进口则预期增长5.0%，进出口相抵，中国将大约出现2200亿美元的全年贸易顺差，这将大大高于去年的1580亿美元。

According to the performance,This year China annual trade growth target of 10% has been difficult to complete.The author is expected to,China's exports will be increased by 8% this year,Imports are expected to grow by 5.0%,Import and export balance,China will now about $220 billion of annual trade surplus,This will greatly higher than $158 billion last year.

　　整体来看，中国出口在今年的表现大致符合预期，但进口的表现则明显弱于预期。事实上，加工贸易仍然在中国的贸易中占据重要位置，因此整体外部需求下滑影响了中国的中间商品进口。然而，中国对大宗商品的整体进口量却没有出现明显的变化。在未来的一段时间内，随着中国财政支出力度的加大以及地方政府投资项目的上马，中国的大宗商品进口需求量将在来年存在着一定的上升空间，但对出口的表现则难以冀望太高，这主要是因为尽管全球经济可能在2013年出现一定程度的改善，但中国出口竞争力的下滑以及较高的基数，将阻碍中国出口重新回到两位数的增长区间。

The whole,China's exports in this year's performance with roughly expected,But import performance significantly weaker than expected.In fact,Processing trade is still in China's trade occupies an important position,So the overall decline in demand for external influence China's intermediate goods import.however,China's commodity overall imports but no apparent change.In the future period of time,With China's fiscal spending intensified efforts and local government investment projects get on,China's commodity import demand in the coming year will be there are some room to rise,But for export performance is difficult to look forward to is too high,This is mainly because although the global economy could in 2013 appear a certain degree of improvement,But China's export competitiveness decline and higher base,Will hinder China's export back to double-digit growth interval.

　　中国不断下降的人口红利，加上“入世”效应的逐步递减，都表明外贸将难以为中国经济提供新的增长动力。这要求中国需要对现行贸易政策进行较大幅度的调整，鼓励进口的同时可能需要付出出口下滑的代价。此外，中国也需要推进全方位的结构性改革以获得“改革红利”。

China's falling demographic dividend,plus"wto"Effect of gradually decline,That foreign trade will be difficult for China's economy provide new growth power.This requires that China needs to the current trade policy adjustment is greatly,Encourage import and export downturn may need to pay the price.In addition,China also needs to promote all-directional structural reform to achieve"Reform bonus".

　　从人民币汇率来看，在过去的1个月中，人民币连续交易在“涨停板”的位置上，笔者认为这主要是因为中国企业在今年上半年人民币走弱时囤积了过多的美元，当他们开始减持手中的美元时，市场承接力不足，导致了人民币的连续涨停。从交易状况来看，市场可接受的人民币兑美元的交易价格在6.21－6.22，然而中国央行则将人民币兑美元的中间价定在6.29－6.30附近，由于人民币的交易区间是中间价的＋／－1%，因此按照央行的中间价，人民币最强可以交易在6.23附近。

See from the RMB exchange rate,In the past 1 months,The continuous trading in"Harden board"position,The author thinks that this is mainly because China's enterprises in the first half of this year the yuan has weakened hoarding too much dollars,When they start to reduce their holdings of the hands of the dollar,Market to undertake insufficient,Lead to the value of the yuan on continuous harden.From trade situation,Market acceptance of the yuan against the dollar in the market price of 6.21-6.22,China, however, the central bank will the middle of the yuan against the dollar price set at 6.29 6.30 nearby,Because the yuan's trading band is middle rate of + / - 1%,So according to the central bank's middle rate,The strongest RMB can trade in the near 6.23.

　　从这个角度来看，人民币的连续涨停是因为央行与市场难以形成共识。因此，即使中国11月的贸易顺差出现了较为明显的下滑，但这一数据对人民币汇率将不会产生显著的影响。事实上，由于在即期市场上无法交易，市场已经转向远期市场卖出美元，这导致了人民币远期汇率的明显走强。但从政策端来看，由于央行行长人选没有明确，因此笔者认为近期内人民币汇率难以出现明显的趋势。

From this point of view,The continuous harden because the central bank and the market hard to forge a consensus.so,Even if China November trade surplus appeared obvious decline,But the data to the RMB exchange rate will not have a significant impact.In fact,Because in the spot can't make a deal,The market has turned to sell the dollars forward market,This leads to the forward rate significantly stronger.But the policy end to see,Due to the central bank governors candidate not clear,So the author thinks that in the near future the RMB exchange rate are hard to show a clear trend.

　　另一个值得关注的话题是，此前公布的工业增加值以及出口交货值数据较为强劲，但中国11月的出口却表现较为糟糕，这让笔者对过去两个月的贸易数据存在着一定的怀疑。市场传言称，很多中国企业将商品通过保税区的“一进一出”来创造“假出口”，以此提升出口数据，并获得出口退税，笔者也发现，从今年开始，保税区的整体进出口增速都大大高于整体进出口增速，这几项数据在此前的走势则十分接近。

Another concern is the topic,Previously published industrial added value and export value of data is relatively strong,But China November but export performance is bad,It makes the author for the past two months of trade data and there was some doubt.Market rumors,Many Chinese enterprise will goods through the free trade zone"A into a"To create"False export",As to promote export data,And access to export tax rebate,The author also found that,From the beginning of this year,Bonded area overall import and export growth is much higher than the overall growth of import and export,This several data in previous movements are very close.

　　整体需要明确的是，由于中国经济仍然缺乏持续的上升动力，同时2013年的国际经济形势也仍不明朗，因此人民币币值过强事实上并不符合中国的利益。（作者为澳新银行大中华区首席经济师）

The overall need clear is,Because China's economy is still lack of continuous rising power,At the same time, 2013 years of international economic situation is still not clear,So the value of the RMB a strong in fact is not in China's interests.(The greater China region for Australia bank chief economist)