事件：

events:

　　近日海关总署公布1-11月外贸进出口情况。据海关统计，1-11月，我国进出口总值3.5万亿美元，累计同比增长5.8%。其中，出口1.8万亿美元，累计同比增长7.3%;进口1.6万亿美元，累计同比增长4.1%;贸易顺差为1995.4亿美元。

Recently released by the general administration of customs 1 - November foreign trade import and export situation.According to customs statistics,1 - November,China import and export (GDP) of us $3.5 trillion,Accumulated year-on-year growth of 5.8%.the,Export $1.8 trillion,Accumulated year-on-year growth of 7.3%;Imported 1.6 trillion us dollars,Accumulated year-on-year growth of 4.1%;The trade surplus for 199.54 billion dollars.

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　　11月份出口同比增速为2.9%，低于市场普遍预期，相比上月数据下降8.68个百分点。上月受去年同期低基数影响数值偏高，而去年11月出口基数大幅抬高以致11月出口增速大幅回落。另一方面，11月数据欠佳显示出外部需求的依然疲软，与之前广交会数据反映的目前外贸形势不太乐观一致。未来在全球经济缓慢复苏的背景下，中国出口竞争力下滑和较高的基数都将是制约出口重回两位数增长的重要因素。

November export 2.9% year-on-year growth,The market is lower than expected,Last month fell 8.68% compared with the data.By the same period last year last month low base influence numerical is on the high side,But last November export base greatly raise that November export growth dropped sharply.On the other hand,November poor data shows that external demand is still weak,And before Canton fair data reflects the current foreign trade situation is not too optimistic consistent.The future in the global economy under the background of a slow recovery,China's export competitiveness glide and higher base will be restricted to export the important factor of double-digit growth.

　　11月进出口同比增速为1.5%，相比上月下降5.73个百分点，贸易顺差金额下滑至196.33亿美元。11月外贸顺差的萎缩预示着外汇占款方面继续回落概率增大。

November import and export 1.5% year-on-year growth,Dropped by 5.73% compared with last month,Trade surplus decline amount to $19.633 billion.November foreign trade surplus atrophy adumbrative exchange to continue funding of dropped probability increases.

　　从主要贸易伙伴出口状况来看，11月我国对欧盟的出口颓势未改，对美国和日本出口增速降至负值，而过去两个月拉动出口好转的东盟市场11月亦大幅下滑。我国出口最大的两个市场美国和欧盟目前经济复苏前期阶段，产生需求外溢尚待观察，缺乏其支撑的情况下出口难有持续性好转。

From the main trade partners export situation,In November the European Union export flagging did not change,The United States and Japan export growth fell to a negative value,But in the past two months pull export better asean market November also fell sharply.Our export's two largest market in the United States and the European Union (eu) economic recovery early stage,Produce demand spillover is yet to be observed,The lack of the support under the condition of the export to have continuous improving.

　　出口增长乏力给经济中期恢复增长带来隐忧，需求端不振，产成品价格反复波动将可能拖累企业利润的回升。从货币层面来看，预计11月外汇占款离零不远，甚至可能为负，经济和货币层面暂不支持新的牛市。

Export growth to economic recovery in the middle of the weak growth concerns,Demand end of,Finished product price will be repeated wave drag of the business enterprise profits rebounded.From monetary level,November is expected to funding of foreign exchange from near zero,Even may be negative,Economic and monetary aspects temporary don't support the new bull market.