目标10%基本无望实现

To realize the basic target of 10% hopeless

　　1-11月，我国出口累计增速距离10%仍然存在一段距离。12月份将是传统的出口淡季，所以，出口方面已经难以寄望。进口方面，11月为零的增速较上月下滑2.36个百分点，基本符合历史进口淡季的规律。我们认为，明年管理层很可能将淡化相关明确定量目标，将注意力转向提高质量上。

1 - November,Our export growth of 10% total distance there are still a distance.December is the traditional export off-season,so,Export has been difficult to hope.Import aspects,November is zero growth fell 2.36% last month,Basic conform to the historical import off-season rule.We think,Management of next year is likely to be desalination related specific quantitative target,Turned their attention to improving our quality.

　　出口导向型经济的时代已经结束

Export-oriented economy era is over

　　2010年达到危机后的高点后一路下行，2012年更是出现全年个位数增速。距离金融危机爆发已经近五年时间，全球范围内，美国经济已经稳步回升，欧洲虽然尚未达成统一方案但基本已经触底，在这样的背景下，我国对外出口不仅没有改善的迹象甚至还在持续探底，我们认为，出口导向性经济的时代已经结束。外需的疲弱仅仅是表面的原因，“中国制造”竞争力的日渐衰落才是真正的原因所在。

2010 years after the crisis to high all the way down after,2012 years is the growth in low single digits.Distance financial crisis has nearly five years,The global scope,The American economy has steadily rebound,Europe has not yet reach a unified plan but the basic has sole,In such a background,China's foreign export not only signs of improvement in sustained even at the bottom of the agent,We think,Export orientation economic era is over.Now is only the surface of the reason,"Made in China"Competitive is fading is the real reason.

　　季节因素影响，进口回落

Seasonal factors,Import back

　　观察历史趋势可以发现，历年11月份进口增速都呈下降趋势，所以我们认为，季节因素是主要原因。但是，虽然目前经济已经逐步企稳，工业生产活动也在缓慢回暖，我们认为，受制于国内产能过剩的大背景。未来进口增速很难恢复到“四万亿”之前的水平。

Look at the historical trend can be found,The November imports decreasing trend,So we think,Seasonal factors are the main causes.but,Although the economy has gradually stabilises,Industrial production activities is slowly milder,We think,Subject to the background of the domestic excess capacity.It is difficult to return to the future imports"Four trillion"Level before.