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美国对华玉米大战或上演大豆翻版--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-12-12
To avoid repeating mistakes of the soybean,China is trying to expand the corn import source.
11月9日,国家质量监督检验检疫总局与乌克兰农业政策和食品部在京签署乌克兰向中国出口玉米的相关协议。此次协议的签订双方仅用了三个月,比起以往需要几年的惯例大大加速。
November 9,,The state administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine and Ukraine agricultural policy and foodstuffs division signed in Beijing the Ukraine the export to China corn related agreement.The signing of the agreement by both parties only for three months,Compared with the traditional need several years of practice greatly accelerated.
这种变化源于中国玉米和粮食需求的强劲上升。尽管国内玉米连年增产,但由于玉米深加工产品和畜牧业需求上升,从2008年起,中国年度进口玉米量连续四年出现增长,今年计划进口600万吨,2013年或将达到800万吨。
This change is due to China's corn and grain demand strong rise.Despite the increase in corn,But as a result of corn processing products and rising demand for animal husbandry,Since 2008,China's annual import quantity of corn for four consecutive years of growth,This year plans to import 6 million tons,2013 or will reach 8 million tons.
早在2010年,日本丸红经济研究所也曾预测称,中国可能在2015年之前,将玉米进口量从当年的100万吨升至1000万吨。
As early as in 2010,Japan WanGong economic research institute has forecast says,China may be in 2015 years ago,The corn imports from the 1 million tons to 10 million tons.
美国是全球最大的玉米种植国,同时也是全球最大的玉米出口国,其产量占全球40%以上,出口量占全球市场的60%以上,自然不会放过有巨大潜力的中国市场。
The United States is the world's largest corn ZhongZhiGuo,At the same time is also the world's biggest exporter of corn,The above 40% of the world's total output,Exports account for more than 60% of the global market,Nature never leave a huge potential market in China.
有分析人士称,美国正试图在中国玉米市场复制“大豆战争”的翻版。1995年以前,中国一直是大豆净出口国,此后美国靠巨额财政补贴生产的大豆进入中国市场。至2004年,低价进口大豆开始横行国内市场,众多内资豆油压榨企业陷入困境,ADM、嘉吉、邦吉和路易达孚四大粮商趁机低价收购、参股多家食用油压榨企业,中国的大豆市场由此受制于国外资本。其直接结果是,中国大豆产量由原来的世界第一位,退居为继美国、巴西和阿根廷之后的世界第四位。
Have analysts say,The United States is trying to copy China's corn market"Soybean war"Reprint of.1995 years ago,China has been a net exporter of soybean,Since then the huge financial subsidies by the production of soybean to enter the Chinese market.To 2004,Low import soybean began to run the domestic market,Many domestic soybean oil press enterprise in trouble,ADM/cargill/Bond auspicious and Louis da fu four food dealer took the opportunity to purchase at a low price/Participation several edible oil press enterprise,China's soybean market thus subject to foreign capital.The direct result is,China's soybean yield by the original world first,Retire to the United States/Brazil and Argentina after the fourth in the world.
事实上,美国在对华玉米出口中,仍延续了与大豆出口同样的战略,一方面是美国政府对玉米的巨额补贴,另一方面是美国公司通过大量控股、参股中国的玉米加工企业,逐渐控制玉米货源渠道。
In fact,The United States in China in corn export,Still lasted and soybean exports the same strategy,On one side is the U.S. government to corn huge subsidies,On the other hand is the company through a large number of holdings/Participation of China's corn processing enterprises,Gradually control corn supply channels.
“美国是全球农业最大发达的国家,在保护本国农业方面最有能力也最有经验,肯定会积极参与市场竞争。”乌克兰农牧集团首席执行官奥列格·巴赫马久科告诉和讯网。
"The United States is the largest global agriculture developed country,Protect domestic agriculture in most ability is also the most experience,Will actively participate in market competition."Ukraine farming group CEO oleg · Bach MaJiu department told HeXunWang.
美国或许不是参与市场竞争那么简单,对于美国农业部的行为,市场分析人士认为其真正意图在于打压南美洲竞争对手,进而控制全球玉米市场。
The United States may not participate in market competition so simple,For the United States department of agriculture's behavior,Market analysts believe that the real intention is to crack down on South American competitors,And then control the global corn market.
8月10日,美国农业部称,因饱受干旱之苦,预计今年的玉米产量为108亿蒲式耳,较上一次预测下修17%,较2011年减少13%,且为自2006年以来的最低产量;预计平均每英亩的玉米产量为123.4蒲式耳,较2011年下降23.8蒲式耳,这将是1995年以来的最低平均产出。
August 10,,The United States department of agriculture says,Because of the suffering from drought,This year is expected to corn production for 10.8 billion bushels,A previous forecast of 17% under repair,More by 13% by the year 2011,And since 2006 for the minimum output;Is expected to average every acres of corn yield is 123.4 bushels,A 2011 fell 23.8 bushels,This will be the lowest since 1995, the average output.
到9月28日发布季度报告时,美国农业部预计玉米产量下降不到1%,而交易商此前预计玉米产量下降3.7%。
To September and promulgated by the quarterly report,The United States department of agriculture is expected to decline maize yield less than 1%,But traders expected corn production fell by 3.7%.
“这是美国惯用的手法,即他们收获时发布各种信息抬高价格,等到南美洲收获时再发布信息压低价格,以此达到控制市场的目的。”银河证券农林牧渔行业分析师吴立告诉和讯网。
"This is the conventional methods,That is when they harvest by all kinds of information push up prices,Wait for South America harvest time to release information hold down prices,To achieve the purpose of control the market."Galaxy securities farming, forestry, husbandry and fishing industry analysts WuLi tell HeXunWang.
目前,美国、阿根廷是中国进口玉米的主要来源国,为寻找多元化粮食进口源,乌克兰成为中国进口粮食的新选择。“乌克兰能够稳定地提供1000-1500万吨的玉米出口,可满足中国在未来几年的需求,而且是不含转基因的产品。”
At present,The United States/Argentina is the main source of China import corn,For looking for diversified food import source,Ukraine become China's import food new choice."Ukraine to steadily provide 1000-15 million tons of corn export,Can meet the demand of China in the coming years,And do not contain genetically modified products."
2010年7月21日,中粮集团首次大规模进口的美国转基因玉米随“玛利亚”货轮进入深圳蛇口招商港务码头;2012年12月6日,中粮集团与乌克兰农牧集团签署玉米供应合作备忘录。一个惨痛教训之后的应对策略正在实施。
On July 21, 2010,Cofco first large-scale imports of American with genetically modified maize"maria"Cargo ship into shenzhen shekou merchants harbor wharf;On December 6, 2012,Cofco and Ukraine farming group signed memorandum of corn supply.A painful lesson from after the implementation of the strategy is.
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