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11月外贸数据点评--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-12-14

  1.事件12月10日,海关总署公布今年11月份进出口数据,外贸增速中止反弹走势出现回落。

1. The event on December 10,The general administration of customs import and export data released this year in November,Foreign trade growth trend to suspend the rebound fell.

  2.我们的分析与判断.(一)外贸结束反弹走势进出口双双回落.从12月10日海关公布的数据来看,11月份外贸结束了之前连续两个月的反弹走势,进出口双双回落。当月进出口总值增长1.5%。其中,出口增长2.9%,低于上个月的11.6%;进口与去年同期持平,低于上月2.4%,贸易顺差196.3亿美元,少于上月的319.9亿美元,也是今年6月份以来最低。

2. Our analysis and judgment.(a)Foreign trade import and export both end rebound trend down. From December 10 customs figures,November before the end of the foreign trade for two consecutive months of rebound trend,Import and export both back.The total import and export growth of 1.5%.the,Export growth of 2.9%,Less than 11.6% of the last month,As the import and the same period last year,Less than 2.4% last month,The trade surplus of $19.63 billion,Less than $31.99 billion last month,Is the lowest since June this year.

  11月份进出口增速的变化,没有确切的原因可寻。从绝对额来观察,仍属正常,相对数值的差别,只能通过基数原因来解释,另一个短期因素可能在于,上个月秋季广交会对10月份出口企业订单的促升明显,11月份这一效应已经消失。

In November the change of import and export growth,Don't have the exact reasons can be found.From sheer specified number to observe,Still belong to normal,The difference of relative value,Only through the base reasons to explain,Another short-term factors may lie in,Autumn Canton fair last month in October export enterprise order to promote rise significantly,November this effect has disappeared.

  从贸易伙伴国来看,中国与欧、美、日等传统贸易大国的双边贸易额持续下滑,而在11月回落的幅度更大,由于这部分贸易占中国对外贸易的比重接近40%,其下滑对中国整体外贸增速的拖累比较明显。

From trade partners to see,China and Europe/beauty/Japan and other traditional trade country's bilateral trade continue to decline,In November the fall was even greater,Due to this part of the trade of China's foreign trade proportion of close to 40%,The decline in China's overall trade growth obvious down.

  (二)外贸结构持续改善.从贸易方式来看,一般贸易比重提高,加工贸易回落,一般贸易的增速和比重持续高于加工贸易。1-11月,我国我国一般贸易进出口增长4.3%,加工贸易进出口增长2.6%,一般贸易较加工贸易增速快1.7个百分点。

(two)Foreign trade structure continuous improvement. From trade mode to see,To improve the proportion of general trade,Processing trade back,General trade growth and continued to be higher than the proportion of processing trade.1 - November,China's general import and export trade in China increased by 4.3%,Processing trade import and export growth of 2.6%,General trade a processing trade 1.7% faster.

  出口商品结构有所优化。1-11月,我国机电产品出口增长8.2%,高出同期我外贸出口总体增速0.9个百分点。7大类劳动密集型产品合计出口3766.8亿美元,增长7.4%。

Export commodity structure is optimized.1 - November,Our country mechanical and electrical products export growth of 8.2%,The higher I export growth of 0.9% overall.7 kinds of labor-intensive products export total $376.68 billion,Growth of 7.4%.



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