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巴西印尼等国陷入贸易逆差--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-12-17

  巴西和印度尼西亚等资源型国家相继出现贸易逆差。原因是受中国等需求低迷影响,铁矿石和煤炭价格下跌,出口额也大幅下滑。由于贸易收支恶化,巴西货币雷亚尔开始贬值。如果进口物价因此上涨,通货膨胀压力则将加剧。 

Brazil and Indonesia etc resources countries have a trade deficit.The reason is the demand such as by China's downturn influence,Iron ore and coal prices,Exports also fell sharply.Due to the deterioration of the balance of payments,Brazilian currency devaluation which began.If the import prices to soar,Inflation pressure will aggravate. 

  12月3日公布的巴西11月贸易收支为逆差1.9亿美元,单月逆差是1月份以来的第一次,11月份出现逆差则是12年来的首次。由于新兴经济体需求旺盛,巴西自2001年以来一直保持顺差态势,但铁矿石、乙醇以及砂糖的出口近来却大幅下滑,其主要原因在于对华及对阿根廷的出口低迷。

December 3, published the Brazilian November trade balance of payments deficit for $190 million,Month a deficit is for the first time since January,November in deficit is for the first time in 12 years.Due to demand in emerging economies,Brazil since 2001 has remained surplus situation,But iron ore/Ethanol and sugar export lately has a sharp decline,The main reason is that China and Argentina's export downturn.

  印尼从80年代开始的顺差势头也明显发生改变。3日公布的10月贸易收支为逆差15亿美元,创历史新高,原因是棕榈油等产品出口下滑。此外,由于煤炭等产品出口下滑,1~10月的累计贸易收支也出现了5亿美元逆差。依赖铜等矿产出口的智利8月份也逆差10亿美元,创08年雷曼危机以来的新高。

Indonesia from 80 s to surplus momentum is also obvious change.3rd October released of the balance of payments deficit for $1.5 billion,A record,The reason is palm oil and other products export downturn.In addition,Because of coal and other products export downturn,1 ~ 10 months of accumulative total of the balance of payments also appeared a $500 million deficit.Depend on the copper mineral exports of Chile in August also deficit of $1 billion,Gen record high since lehman crisis.

  资源型国家陷入贸易逆差的原因主要有两个。一是新兴经济体的外需低迷和内需扩大带来的进口增加。二是这些国家的经济主要依赖资源出口,很难找到替代出口产品。

Countries in the trade deficit is mainly caused by the two.One is the emerging economies now downturn and expand domestic demand brought increased imports.The second is the country's economy mainly depends on resources export,It is difficult to find alternative export products.

  如果拉动全球经济增长的资源国增长放缓长期化,加速在巴西等国建厂的外资企业战略很可能受到影响。之前涌入资源国的投资热钱已开始迅速撤离。

If you pull the global economic growth slowdown in resource countries reform,Accelerated in Brazil and other countries of the factory of the foreign capital enterprise strategy is may be affected.Before pouring into resource countries boom money has started to leave quickly.

  3日的外汇市场上,巴西货币雷亚尔的汇率为1美元兑2.1雷亚尔左右。贸易逆差一时引发大量雷亚尔抛盘。由于本国货币贬值很容易引发通货膨胀,巴西中央银行同一日决定大量回购本国货币。自中国经济减速成为热议话题的上半年开始,雷亚尔就一直在被卖出。印尼货币卢比对美元汇率也呈下跌趋势。

3, the foreign exchange market,Brazilian currency real exchange rate is one dollar to 2.1 about reais.A trade deficit caused by a large number of PaoPan reais.Due to the currency is easy to cause inflation,The Brazilian central bank the same day decided to a large number of repurchase their currencies.Since China's economic slowdown become a topic of hot debate in the first half of the start,Which has been sold.Indonesia currency rupee against the us dollar exchange rate also shows downward trend.

  如果贸易收支恶化导致资源国货币持续贬值,日本的个人投资者也将受到影响。投资资源国股票和债权的投资信托在日本很受关注,以雷亚尔计价的投资信托尤其受欢迎。由于雷亚尔对日元汇率也在走低,市场担心投资业绩会出现恶化。 

If the balance of the trade to worsen their currencies resources for depreciation,Japan's individual investors will also be affected.Investment resources countries stock and debt investment trust in Japan is very concern,In reais valuation investment trust especially popular.Because of the yen which in low,The market worried about investment performance will be worse. 



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