据海关统计，今年1-10月，我国与印度双边贸易总值达556.9亿美元，比去年同期（下同）下降8.1%，占同期我国对外贸易总值的（下同）1.8%，所占比重下降0.2个百分点，在我国贸易伙伴中排名第12位，为同期与我国双边贸易总值唯一出现下降的“金砖国家”（同期，我国与俄罗斯双边贸易增长13.4%、巴西增长3.5%、南非增长34.9%）。其中，我国对印出口393.5亿美元，下降5.7%；自印进口163.4亿美元，下降13.3%。累计贸易顺差230.1亿美元，扩大22%。

According to customs statistics,This year October 1 -,China and India bilateral trade amounted to $55.69 billion,Than the same period last year(Similarly hereinafter)Fell by 8.1%,During the same period for China's foreign trade of gross(Similarly hereinafter)1.8%,The proportion of 0.2% decline,In our country's trade partners in the 12th,For the same period in China and bilateral trade value only the decline"Nuggets countries"(Over the same period,China and Russia bilateral trade growth of 13.4%/Brazil increased by 3.5%/South Africa grew by 34.9%).the,To print in China export $39.35 billion,Fell by 5.7%;Since the printing for us $16.34 billion,Fell by 13.3%.Total trade surplus of $23.01 billion,Expanded by 22%.

　　一、2012年1-10月中印双边贸易的主要特点

a/2012 October 1 - the main characteristics of sino-indian bilateral trade

　　（一）月度进、出口同比持续下降。

(a)Monthly into/Year-on-year exports continued to decline.

　　自2011年10月以来，我国对印度月度进出口全面下降趋势日益明显。其中今年10月份对印出口38.6亿美元，同比下降14.8%；进口9.8亿美元，同比下降36.8%。

Since October 2011,Our country to India monthly import and export overall downward trend is more and more obvious.The October this year to print export $3.86 billion,14.8% year-on-year drop;Imported 980 million us dollars,36.8% year-on-year drop.

　　（二）一般贸易进出口显著下降，加工贸易进出口保持增长。1-10月，我国以一般贸易方式对印度出口270.6亿美元，下降6.6%，占68.8%；进口101.9亿美元，下降24.6%，占62.3%。同期，以加工贸易方式对印度出口83.8亿美元，增长2.4%，占21.3%；进口28.2亿美元，增长17.1%，占17.3%。以其他各种贸易方式对印度出口共39亿美元，下降14.8%，占9.9%；进口33.3亿美元，增长13.7%，占20.4%。

(two)General trade import and export significantly,Processing trade import and export growth.1 - October,Our country in general trade way for India exports and 27.06 billion dollars,Fell by 6.6%,Accounted for 68.8%;Imported 10.19 billion us dollars,Fell by 24.6%,Accounted for 62.3%.Over the same period,By way of processing trade to India exports and 8.38 billion dollars,Growth of 2.4%,Accounted for 21.3%;Imported 2.82 billion us dollars,Growth of 17.1%,Accounted for 17.3%.Other various trade way for India exports a total of $3.9 billion,Fell by 14.8%,9.9%;Imported 3.33 billion us dollars,Growth of 13.7%,Accounted for 20.4%.

　　（三）私营企业对印贸易逆势强增长，成为最大出、进口主体。1-10月，我国私营企业对印度出口150.4亿美元，增长7.9%，占38.2%；进口58.5亿美元，增长20.9%，占35.8%；进、出口均成为最大主体。同期，外商投资企业对印出口139.4亿美元，下降1.9%，占35.4%；进口45.1亿美元，下降17.3%，占27.6%。此外，国有企业对印出口89.2亿美元，下降22.7%，占22.7%；进口51.1亿美元，下降29.2%，占31.3%。

(three)The private enterprise printing trade contrarian strong growth,Become the biggest/Import subject.1 - October,Our country private enterprise to India exports and 15.04 billion dollars,Growth of 7.9%,Accounted for 38.2%;Imported 5.85 billion us dollars,Growth of 20.9%,Accounted for 35.8%;into/Export are subject to become the largest.Over the same period,Enterprises with foreign investment for India exports and 13.94 billion dollars,Fell by 1.9%,Accounted for 35.4%;Imported 4.51 billion us dollars,Fell by 17.3%,Accounted for 27.6%.In addition,The state-owned enterprise to print export $8.92 billion,Fell by 22.7%,Accounted for 22.7%;Imported 5.11 billion us dollars,Fell by 29.2%,Accounted for 31.3%.

　　（四）江苏为对印出口最主要地区，上海为自印进口最主要地区。1-10月，江苏对印出口65.4亿美元，下降3.6%；广东64.9亿美元，下降8.8%；浙江53.1亿美元，下降8.4%，上述3者合计占同期中印进出总值的46.6%。同期，上海自印进口27.8亿美元，增长2.2%；山东25.9亿美元，下降14.6%；北京20.8亿美元，下降12.4%，上述3者合计占同期中印进口总值的45.6%。

(four)Jiangsu to print export the main area,Shanghai is the most main region since the printing import.1 - October,Jiangsu to print export $6.54 billion,Fell by 3.6%;Guangdong $6.49 billion,Fell by 8.8%;Zhejiang $5.31 billion,Fell by 8.4%,The above three person of India during the same period and total 46.6% of the total.Over the same period,Shanghai printing from imported 2.78 billion us dollars,Growth of 2.2%;Shandong $2.59 billion,Fell by 14.6%;Beijing 2.08 billion dollars,Fell by 12.4%,The above 3 person the total accounted for 45.6% of the total cost of the import of India.

　　（五）机电产品占出口总额近6成，铁矿砂进口量下降，棉花等农产品进口量大幅增长。1-10月，我国对印出口机电产品共220.25亿美元，下降3.3%，占出口总量56.0%；出口自动数据处理设备及其部件24.25亿美元，增长22.2%；出口纺织品22.04亿美元，下降17.7%；出口肥料21.07亿美元，下降19.6%。

(five)Mechanical and electrical products export volume accounts for nearly six into,Iron ore imports down,Cotton and other agricultural products import growth.1 - October,To print in mechanical and electrical products export a total of $22.025 billion,Fell by 3.3%,Accounted for 56.0% of the total export;Export automatic data processing equipment and parts of $2.425 billion,Growth of 22.2%;The export of textiles $2.204 billion,Fell by 17.7%;Export fertilizer $2.107 billion,Fell by 19.6%.

　　同期，自印度进口农产品共36.81亿美元，增长57.7%，占进口总量22.5%；其中棉花进口27.56亿美元，增长89.7%。自印度进口铁矿砂36.37亿美元，下降57.1%；；进口未锻造的铜及铜材17.73亿美元，增长7.9%。

Over the same period,Imported agricultural products from India a total of $3.681 billion,Growth of 57.7%,Accounted for 22.5% of total imports;The cotton imported 2.756 billion us dollars,Growth of 89.7%.Import iron ore from India $3.637 billion,Fell by 57.1%;;Import not wrought copper and copper $1.773 billion,Growth of 7.9%.

　　二、2012年1-10月我国对印度进、出口出现下降的主要原因

two/1-2012 in October to India into/The main reason for the decline in exports

　　（一）印度国内经济增速放缓，需求减少制约我国对印度出口。今年以来，印度国内通胀压力依然较大，今年10月印度主要通胀衡量指标——批发物价指数(WPI)同比增长7.45%，增幅虽低于市场预计的7.9%以及9月份的7.81%但仍处于高位；而汇丰印度制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）由1月的57.5降至11月的53.7。在高利率、投资信心不足、本币持续贬值、财政赤字继续增长的背景下，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计今年印度的经济增速将降至4.9%，为过去10年来最低增速。受印度国内经济发展增速放缓影响，国内需求减弱，制约我国产品对印度的出口。

(a)India's domestic economic growth is slowing,Less demand for India to restrict China's export.Since this year,India domestic inflation pressure is still large,In October this year India's main inflation indicator - wholesale price index(WPI)Year-on-year growth of 7.45%,Growth is lower than the market expected 7.9% and 7.81% in September but remains high;And HSBC India's manufacturing purchasing managers' indices(PMI)From January to November 57.5 drop of 53.7.Higher interest rates in/Investment lack of confidence/Continuing decline, according to the/Fiscal deficit continue under the background of growth,The international monetary fund(IMF)This year is expected to India's economic growth will drop to 4.9%,For the past ten years the lowest growth.By India's domestic economic development growth is slowing effect,Domestic demand weakened,Restricting our products to the Indian export.

　　（二）印度加大对纺织等制造行业的扶持力度，减少了对我国相关产品的需求。近年来，印度不断加大对本国纺织等制造业的扶持力度。目前，印度纺织部门已被国家制造业政策确定为一个关键劳动力密集型产业，未来10年整个生产部门年均增长速率为14%[2]；为救助陷入困境的纺织行业，印度纺织部和银行界为境况不佳的纺织部门准备了数千亿救援政策，其中包括额外3500亿卢比的资金，暂停现有贷款和利息回扣的支付，并计划给纺织业提供具有追溯效力的激励措施，将其纳入补贴范围，旨在振兴印度第2大制造业。受此影响，我国对印度主要出口的纺织品明显下降。

(two)India intensify the textile and other manufacturing industries more support,Reduce the demand to our country related products.In recent years,India has continued to increase their own textile and other manufacturing support dynamics.At present,Indian textile department has been identified as national industry policy a key labor intensive industry,The next 10 years the production department with an average annual growth rate is 14% [2];To help the troubled textile industry,Indian textile department and Banks for ailing textile department billions to aid policy,Including an additional 350 billion rupee fund,Stop existing loan and interest rebate payment,And plan to textile industry offer retroactivity incentives,Be included in the scope of subsidies,The second big manufacturing to India.Affected by this,Our country to India's main export textiles declined obviously.

　　（三）印度大幅提高铁矿砂出口壁垒，致我国自印进口锐减。多年来，印度铁矿砂一直以中国为主要出口市场，而铁矿砂进口也一直位居我国自印度进口商品首位。为帮助印度国内钢铁工业发展，解决原材料短缺的困境，年初印度将铁矿石出口税由原来的20%上调至30%，并继续实施从2010年开始出口量逐年减半的任务量。受印度国内矿业禁令和上调出口关税影响，今年印度铁矿砂的出口量骤降，截至10月，我国自印度进口铁矿石减幅已达57%。

(three)India increase iron ore export barriers,The China's import printing decrease.For many years,Indian iron ore has been in China for the main export market,And iron ore imports have been in Chinese imports from India's first.In order to help India domestic iron and steel industry development,To solve the shortage of raw materials of the dilemma,India will early iron ore export tax from 20% rise to 30%,And continue to implement since 2010 has the task of exports by quantity.By India's domestic mining ban and raise export duties influence,This year the Indian iron ore exports dip,As of October,Our country imported iron ore from India damped has reached 57%.

　　三、当前中印双边贸易面临的问题

three/The sino-indian trade are faced with the problem

　　去年以来，印度经济增长乏力，今年3季度较上年同期仅增长2.8%，2012年印度面临近10年来经济最不景气的一年，由此导致印度国内需求疲软，制约了我国对其出口；另一方面为振兴国内制造业，印度进一步控制资源性商品的输出，以降低本国企业的使用成本，从而抑制我国自印度资源性商品的进口。具体表现在：

Since last year,India's economic growth lack of power,This year 3 quarter year-on-year growth of 2.8% only,In 2012 India face nearly ten years the economic recession in the year,Which leads to a weak domestic demand in India,Restricted the our country of its export;On the other hand for the revitalization of the domestic manufacturing,India to further control the output of the commodity,In order to reduce the use of domestic enterprise cost,To restrain from India in China commodity import.The specific performance in the:

　　（一）中印出口商品结构相似，我国对其出口优势逐渐趋弱。中国与印度同属发展中大国，两国经济具有很强的互补性，但是由于发展水平相近，而且人口众多，在国际产业分工中，两国在都需要依赖本国的劳动力成本优势，来参与国际市场竞争，出口的产品多以劳动密集型商品为主。两国出口结构相似，在国际市场中存在较强的竞争关系。但随着我国劳动力成本的不断上升，我国对印出口优势已不明显，加之印度国内制造业的发展和贸易壁垒，进一步削弱了我国对其出口的优势。

(a)Export commodity structure similar to India,Our country of its export advantage tend gradually weak.China and India belong to developing countries,The two countries' economies have strong complementarity,But due to the similar level of development,A large population and,In the international division of labor,The two countries need to rely on their own labor cost advantage,To participate in the international market competition,Export products in labor-intensive products.The two countries export structure similarity,In the international market have strong competitive relationship.But with China's labor costs rise,To print in China export advantage has not obvious,With the development of the manufacturing industry in India's domestic and trade barriers,Further weakening of its export advantage in China.

　　（二）印度加强对本国资源性商品控制力度，给我国相关产业发展造成不利影响。印度资源性商品的对华输出一直在中印双边贸易中扮演着重要角色，但随着印度加强对本国资源的控制力度，我国进口此类商品的比重正在不断下滑。目前，我国自印度进口值排名前3位的商品是铁矿砂、棉花和铜，均为大宗资源性商品，2010年该3种商品进口值占同期我国自印度进口总值的比重为66.5%，2011年下降至61.7%，今年1-10月继续下滑至59.4%。去年12月，印度最大的铁矿石企业国家矿产开发公司主席Rana Som表示，印度可能在最少5年内停止向中国出口铁矿石。而伴随着对矿产品出口的限制，印度又开始加大对棉花出口的控制。尽管1季度我国自印度进口棉花保持增长，但今年3月份以来印度全力阻击棉花出口，并将仿效我国建立棉花储备制度，以求将便宜棉花留在国内。虽然3月5日的棉花出口禁令仅一周后就被取消，但印度政府要求监视托运情况，主要监视对中国的出口，通过审核出口收据凭证（ERCS）了解是否存在出口骤然增加的情况。由于印度棉的价格优势及品质特点短期内很难找到替代的棉花，印度减少棉花出口无疑会对我国棉纺行业造成不利影响。

(two)India to strengthen its efforts to control commodity,To our country the development of relative industries adversely affect.India's China commodity output has been sino-indian bilateral trade plays an important role,But with India to strengthen the efforts to control their resources,The proportion of China's imported these goods are constantly glide.At present,But imports jumped from India in the top three goods is iron ore/Cotton and copper,Are all bulk commodity,In 2010, the three kinds of goods but imports jumped over the same period of our country the proportion of total imports from India is 66.5%,In 2011 fell to 61.7%,This year October 1 - continue to decline to 59.4%.Last December,India's biggest iron ore enterprise national mineral development company President Rana Som said,India may be in at least 5 years to stop the export to China iron ore.And with the export restrictions of minerals,India began to intensify the cotton export control.Although one quarter from India in our country imported cotton growth,But this year since march India to block cotton export,And will follow the establishment of China's cotton reserve system,In order to will be cheap cotton at home.Although on March 5th cotton export ban only a week later will be cancelled,But India's government for monitoring the checked situation,The main monitoring exports to China,Through the review export receipt voucher(ERCS)To understand whether there are export increases abruptly.Since India cotton price advantage and quality characteristics in the short term it is difficult to find alternative cotton,India reduce cotton export will no doubt to our country cotton industry to cause adverse effect.