12月18日财政部正式发布2013年中国出口商品税率表中并没有出现焦炭，预示着从明年1月1日起中国焦炭出口40%关税正式取消，但关于是否取消出口配额以及最新焦炭出口办法目前尚无进一步政策消息出台。而据业内人士反映，早前从WTO裁决结果已经表明明年焦炭关税下调基本形成必然，但此次财政部直接取消关税则出乎所有人的意外。考虑到当前国内焦化产能严重过剩，加之对于资源消耗，环境污染等因素，笔者认为此次的关税取消还并不能等于国家完全放开焦炭出口。

December, and the ministry of finance issued in 2013, China export commodity rate table and there is no coke,Predicted from January 1,, China's coke export 40% tariff officially cancelled,But on whether to cancel the export quota and the latest coke export way at present there is no further policy on news.And according to the personage inside course of study to reflect,Earlier from WTO ruling results have shown that next year coke tariffs will basically formed,But the Treasury directly cancel tariffs are not all accident.Considering the current domestic coking production serious surplus,And for the resource consumption,Factors such as the pollution of the environment,The author thinks that the tariff cancel also does not equal to the national completely let go of coke export.

　　钢产量高速增长驱动焦化企业遍地开花，产能过剩严重。近十年来由于钢铁工业发展迅猛，我国焦炭产量在除去2008年金融危机因素影响产量下降，其它年份基本呈现逐年上升的趋势，数据显示2012年1-11份我国焦炭产量累计完成4.07亿吨，按照9月份以后焦化产能利用率上升推算全年焦炭产量有望突破4.4亿吨大关。而根据今年1-11月份焦炭表观消费量测算值为2.4亿吨加上社会库存与出口量总计约2.5亿吨左右，与实际产量相比过剩至少5000万吨以上，并且随着终端耗钢增速放缓，焦炭市场过剩压力不断增大。

Steel production growth drive coking enterprise blossom everywhere,Overcapacity serious.In the past ten years due to the rapid development of the iron and steel industry,Our country coke production in the financial crisis in 2008 to remove factors affect the yield decline,Other years basic rising gradually,Data showed that 2012 1-11 of coke production in China has been completed 407 million tons,According to the September coking capacity utilization rate rise after calculate the coke production is expected to exceed 440 million tons of mark.And according to this year 1 - November coke apparent consumption calculation value for 240 million tons and social inventory and exports total about 250 million tons,Compared with the actual production surplus of at least 50 million tons,And with terminal steel consumption growth is slowing,Coke market surplus pressure increasing.

　　从取消退税到上调40%出口关税，焦炭出口市场窗口慢慢关闭。从图2中可以看出从08年以前我国焦炭出口形势长期保持在每月百万吨以上的量，2006年焦炭总出口量更是达到1500万吨的高度，虽然相对国内总产量有限，但却占据了全球50%以上的出口份额，主要出口地区日韩印与巴西以及独联体等国。06年以后为反击三大矿山对铁矿石的垄断，加上国内焦化产能无序扩张带来的环境污染与优质焦煤资源的过度消耗，我国政府逐步取消退税并提高焦炭出口关税，2008年8月焦炭的出口暂定税率由25%提高至40%，并且出口焦炭采取配额制度直接封锁了中国焦炭出口市场。

From cancel to rise 40% export duty drawback,Coke export market window closed slowly.Can be seen from the figure 2 from in China before coke export situation maintained for a long time in the amount of one million tons per month,In 2006, coke's exports is the height of 15 million tons,Although the relative gross domestic product co., LTD.,,But accounted for more than 50% of the world's share of exports,Main export Japan and South Korea in print and Brazil and commonwealth of independent states and other countries.6 years later in order to counter three mining for iron ore of monopoly,Plus domestic coking production disordered expansion brings pollution and the high quality coking coal excessive consumption of resources,Our government gradually cancel the drawback and improve coke export tariffs,In August 2008, the export of coke, the temporary tariff rate increased from 25% to 40%,And export coke take quota system directly blocked China's coke export market.

　　中国限制焦炭出口推动了国际市场炼焦煤需求。从08年以后国内煤矿资源整合运动使得焦煤资源集中度越来越高，由于资源的稀缺性使得国有大矿对焦煤价格的掌控力度日益提高，国际方面受制于中国限制焦炭出口日韩印等国自建焦炉从大量进口焦炭变为采购炼焦煤，一举推高国际焦煤价格。

Chinese restrictions on coke export promotes the international coking coal market demand.After from domestic coal resources integration movement makes the coking coal resources concentration is more and more high,Due to the scarcity of resources that state-owned large ore for coking coal price control strength increasing,International subject to Chinese restrictions on coke export countries such as Japan and South Korea printing from coke oven from a large number of imported coke into purchasing coking coal,Every push GaoGuoJi coking coal prices.

　　经济转入中速发展期，未来焦炭需求增速有限，淘汰落后产能刻不容缓。焦化企业在走过了08年前后的辉煌以后，十二五期间国内经济将转入中速发展周期，在国内钢铁产能基本达到峰值后，焦化产能过剩加剧的形势比较严峻。今年中央十八大提出的“建设美丽中国”口号之下，高污染高耗能的产业是必须进行落后产能淘汰与新增产能限制。在近几年的焦化行业在通过新修订的《焦化行业准入条件》与市场调节的双重手段干预下，淘汰落后与整合重组工作取得了不俗的成绩，2010年淘汰落后焦炉产能2533万吨，2011年又有19个省区淘汰落后焦炉产能1976万吨（涉及87家企业），2012年工信部淘汰13个省市区落后小机焦产能2051万吨。整合重组方面，2011年底我国先后有六批349家焦化企业获得《焦化行业准入条件》公告，这些企业加上后扩建焦炉总产能达近3.8亿吨。2012年第七批行业准入，又有32家企业、合计产能2608万吨获准。在逐步由小、散、乱向焦化工业园区深加工发展工作走的相对顺利，符合国家可持续发展战略。因此决策层必然深知焦化行业面临的现状，如果对于焦炭出口完全放开那么将不排除一些待兼并重组或是濒临淘汰的焦化产能将再度死灰复燃扩大发展，这与未来国家对焦化产业布局思路相矛盾。值得注意的是2013年中国出口商品税率表中我们看到炼焦煤的出口关税依然是10%未有任何变化，取消焦炭出口关税并不加控制这这也显然并不符合常理。

Economic into medium speed development period,The future coke demand growth limited,Elimination of backward production capacity urgent.Coking enterprises in the past the before and after the brilliant future,During the 1025 domestic economy will turn to medium speed development cycle,In the domestic iron and steel production capacity after basic peak,Coking excess capacity increasing situation is severe.This year the central forward the eighteen"Construction beautiful China"Under the slogan,High pollution of gas-guzzling industry is backward production capacity must be eliminated and new capacity constraints.The coking industry in recent years by the new revision[Coking industry access conditions]And market regulation of double means to intervene,Elimination of backward integration and restructuring work achieved good results,In 2010, elimination of backward production capacity of 25.33 million tons coke oven,2011 years and there are 19 provinces elimination of backward production capacity of 19.76 million tons coke oven(Involving 87 enterprises),2012 work letter out of 13 provinces and JiJiao behind small production capacity of 20.51 million tons.Integration in restructuring,By the end of 2011 China has six group of 349 home coking enterprise gain[Coking industry access conditions]announcement,The enterprise and the coke oven after total can reach nearly 380 million tons.In 2012, the seventh batch industry access,And there are 32 enterprises/Total capacity to 26.08 million tons.In gradually by small/scattered/Disorderly to coking industrial park development of deep processing of the relative work go smoothly,Accord with national strategy of sustainable development.Therefore decision-making must know the current situation of the coking industry faces,If for coke export completely let go so will not rule out some for merger and reorganization or is on the brink of elimination of coking production capacity will again expanding resurgence,This and future state of coking industry layout contradictory ideas.It is important to note that in 2013 China export commodity rate table we see coking coal export tariff is still 10% no change,Cancel the coke export tariff is not controlled it also obviously does not accord with common sense.

　　另外现行的焦炭出口制度主要分为：40%关税加上出口配额制。关税是由财政部制定而配额则是由国家发改委商务部根据符合焦炭出口配额申领条件的企业及企业上一年焦炭出口实绩并考虑市场环境，企业类型等一系列因素综合考虑分配的。根据2012年我国焦炭出口配额为900万吨，而1-11月份我国累计仅出口焦炭96万吨，预计全年出口量在100万吨左右，取消关税以后明年的出口配额假设仍为900万吨全部用完，那么同比焦炭出口量将多增加800万吨，全年出口量占比总产量仅为2%左右，对于国内严重产能过剩的市场而言影响相对有限。因此单纯根据此次财政部取消焦炭出口关税，在没有得到发改委对后期焦炭配额制度的调整方案公布之前，对于焦炭出口市场盲目乐观也显得意义不大。

In addition the current coke export system is mainly divided into:40% tariff and export quota system.Tariffs are formulated by the ministry of finance and the quota is by the national development and reform commission according to the ministry of commerce with coke export quota application conditions of the enterprise and enterprise last year coke export performance and consider the market environment,A series of factors, such as the type of the enterprise comprehensive consideration of the distribution.According to the 2012 China coke export quota for 9 million tons,And in November 1 - in our country only total export coke 960000 tons,In all the year round is expected to export 1 million tons,Cancel tariffs later next year's export quota hypothesis still for 9 million tons of all run out,So up coke exports will increase more than 8 million tons,Annual exports account for only 2% than production,For the domestic serious overcapacity in the market influence is relatively limited.So simple according to the ministry of finance to cancel coke export tariffs,Didn't get to development and reform commission (NDRC) late coke quota system adjustment scheme before released,For coke export market blind optimism also appears significance is not big.

　　根据此前2012年1月份，世界贸易组织上诉机构（DSB）就美国、欧盟、墨西哥起诉中国原材料出口限制案裁决报告，称中国不公平地”限制了广泛用于钢铁、铝和化工产业的九种原材料的出口，并称“中国必须降低出口关税，解除出口限额”。在这起广受关注的上诉案中，WTO上诉组织裁定认为，中国在铝土、焦炭、黄磷、萤石、镁、锰、金属硅、碳化硅和锌9种原材料方面的政策“扭曲了世界贸易”，并称“中国必须马上降低出口关税，并解除出口限额，以符合其作为世界贸易组织成员国的义务”.因此很有可能商务部将取消配额制度在WTO贸易壁垒规则以外用另外一种制度来代替此前的配额制或者从焦化生产、运销等方面采取隐性市场化调节手段来对于焦炭出口形成必要的调控。

According to the previous in January 2012,The world trade organization appeal body(DSB)The United States/The European Union/Mexico raw material export restrictions against China case report award,Said China unfairly"Limit the widely used in iron and steel/Aluminum and chemical industry raw materials of nine kinds of export,said"China must reduce export tariffs,Remove export quota".In the wide concern in the who,WTO appeal ruled that organization,China in the alumina/coke/Yellow phosphorus/fluorite/magnesium/manganese/Silicon metal/Silicon carbide and zinc 9 kinds of raw materials for a policy"Distort the world trade",said"China must be immediately reduce the export tariff,And remove export quota,To comply with it as the world trade organization members of the obligation". So is likely to the ministry of commerce will cancel the quota system in WTO trade barriers beyond rules in another system to replace previous quota system or from coking production/Distribution and adopt recessive market regulation means for coke export to form the necessary control.

　　受焦炭关税取消利好昨日连焦主力合约早盘快速上涨，创出此轮反弹新高，但反弹持续性有待进一步观察。

Good by coke tariff cancelled yesterday even focal main contract earlier rise rapidly,Creating this round of high rebound,But rebound persistent needs further observation.

　　综上所述，焦炭出口政策上仍然存在许多不确定性因素，对于后期连续出台的关于配额调整需要密切关注。而笔者对后期焦炭出口政策上更倾向于国家通过其它相关形式调控，市场部分松动而并非完全放开。国内现有焦炭产量可以允许部分出口，根据今年的低出口基数来看，明年的焦炭出口量同比上升幅度明显概率较大。出口市场需求将有利于支撑国内焦炭价格，而同时增加焦炭出口量也为日韩、印度等国家在国际焦煤价格谈判中增加砝码，国际焦煤价格有望得到一些平抑。该信息来源：海鑫信息

To sum up,Coke export policy there are still many uncertain factors,Late on for continuous about quota adjustment need to pay close attention to.And the author to late coke export policy tend to countries through the other related form control,Market partly loose and not fully open.The domestic existing coke yield may allow some of the export,According to this year's low export base to see,Next year's coke exports year-on-year increase significantly greater probability.Export market demand will be conducive to support domestic coke prices,At the same time increase the coke exports also for Japan and South Korea/India and other countries in the international coking coal price negotiations increase weight,The international coking coal prices are expected to get some stabilize.The sources of information:Hisin information