中国社科院24日发布的2013年《世界经济黄皮书》显示，2012年全球贸易增长明显放缓，贸易保护主义日益盛行，大国之间贸易争端明显上升。报告预测，2013年贸易保护主义仍将是制约贸易增长的重要因素。

Issued by the Chinese academy of 24, 2013[The world economy Yellow Book]display,In 2012, global trade growth slowed sharply,The increasing availability of trade protectionism,Power trade dispute between increased dramatically.The report forecasts,In 2013, trade protectionism will still be an important factor restrict trade growth.

　　报告指出，2012年全球经济复苏缓慢，全球贸易增长明显放缓。世界贸易组织(WTO)报告预测，2012年全球贸易增速为2.5%，低于此前20年平均水平的一半，与此前预期的3.7%相比，下调了1.2个百分点。其中，发达经济体出口增速为1.5%，下调0.5个百分点；新兴经济体出口增速为3.5%，下调2.1个百分点。报告指出，2012年全球贸易量的增长低于全球经济增长步伐，表明全球贸易面临的下行风险超过增长风险。

The report says,In 2012, the global economic recovery is slow,Global trade growth slowed sharply.The world trade organization(WTO)The report forecasts,In 2012, the global trade growth was 2.5%,After twenty years less than half of the average level,With the previously expected compared to 3.7%,A 1.2% cut.the,Developed economies export growth was 1.5%,By 0.5%;Emerging economies' exports grew 3.5%,By 2.1%.The report says,In 2012, the global trade growth below the pace of global economic growth,To indicate that global trade downward risk more than increase risk.

　　报告分析，长期以来，全球贸易一直主要依赖欧洲、美国及日本三大市场。但目前三大经济体经济状况都欠佳，尤其是欧洲经济陷入衰退，对全球出口造成较大影响。在东亚地区，韩国、印度尼西亚、中国香港等经济体出口下降十分显著。此外，巴西、印度、俄罗斯的出口也都受到一定遏制。由于欧债危机阴霾不散，美国经济低速缓行，全球贸易下降实乃预料之中。

According to the analysis,For a long time,Global trade has been mainly depends on Europe/The United States and Japan's third largest market.But the three economies had poor economic conditions,Especially the European economy into a recession,On the global export cause great influence.In east Asia region,South Korea/Indonesia/China's Hong Kong and other economies decline in exports is very significant.In addition,Brazil/India/Russia's exports have also been must contain.Due to the debt crisis haze do not come loose,The American economy low speed slow,Global trade down solid expected.

　　报告指出，随着贸易增速下降，贸易保护主义抬头，大国之间的贸易争端频发。以中国为例，2012年上半年，中国共遭遇18个国家和地区发起的贸易救济调查，反倾销、反补贴、特保等贸易救济调查事件40起，同比增长了38%；涉案金额37亿美元，同比增长了76%。

The report says,Along with the trade growth decline,Trade protectionism growth,Between the great powers and frequent trade disputes.In China, for example,In the first half of 2012,China has encountered and countries and regions by the trade remedy investigation,anti-dumping/countervailing/Safeguard and trade remedy investigation event and up,Growth of 38% year-on-year;Involving a value of $3.7 billion,Growth of 76% year-on-year.

　　报告同时指出，2012年中美之间贸易失衡程度减弱，使人民币汇率的关注度下降。数据显示，2011年中国经常账户顺差占GDP比例为2.8%，预计2012年这一比例进一步下降至2.3%。2012年第一季度美国经常项目逆差为1336亿美元，占GDP比例为3.5%，预计全年经常项目逆差占GDP的比例为3.1%。2012年7月，IMF完成与中国2012年“第四条款磋商”，并对中国汇率制度改革和人民币升值的努力予以肯定。由于中国的经常账户顺差显著下降，人民币由“显著低估”转为“适度低估”。

The report also pointed out that,2012 degree between China and the United States trade imbalances weakened,To the attention of the RMB exchange rate down.Data display,In 2011, China's current account surplus 2.8% GDP,In 2012 the proportion is expected to further decline to 2.3%.The first quarter of 2012 the us current account deficit for 133.6 billion dollars,3.5% of GDP,The current account deficit is expected to account for the proportion of GDP is 3.1%.In July 2012,IMF finish and China in 2012"The fourth clause consultation",China's exchange rate system reform and the appreciation of the renminbi to be sure.Because of China's current account surplus dropped significantly,RMB by"Significantly underestimated"to"Moderate underestimate".

　　报告预测，2013年，世界贸易争端和贸易保护仍将维持较高水平，贸易不平衡问题，特别是所谓“竞争中立”框架，很可能催生新一轮贸易保护主义，从而掣肘全球贸易增长。贸易保护主义仍将成为各国政府关注的焦点之一。 .

The report forecasts,In 2013,,The world trade disputes and trade protection will still maintain a higher level,Trade imbalance,Especially the"Competition neutral"framework,Probably has a new round of trade protectionism,Constraints and global trade growth.Trade protectionism will become the focus of attention of governments. .