到现在为止，人们还一直相信中国发布的月度进出口数据是绝对可靠的。然而，越来越多的证据表明，最近几个月，由于存在一些人为捏造的交易的缘故，上述数据已经变样了。

So far,People always believe that China issued monthly import and export data is absolutely reliable.however,More and more evidence,In recent months,Because there are some people invented the sake of trading,The above data have switched round.

　　今年9月和10月的出口数据尤其值得怀疑。中国9月份的出口同比增长了9.9%，而10月份的出口同比上升了11.6%。许多观察人士认为，9月份的数据业已发出中国经济开始走上了复苏之路的信号，而这正是人们期待已久的事情。

September and October export data particularly suspect.China September export growth of 9.9% year-on-year,In October and export 11.6% year-on-year.Many observers believe,In September, the data has a China's economy started on the road to recovery the signal,And this is what people are looking forward to already a long time of things.

　　目前来看，9、10月份的数据很有可能存在异常，反而是8月份与11月份的数据更符合正常趋势。事实上，8月及11月的数据看起来非常相似。出口方面，8月份同比增长2.7%，11月同比增长2.9%。而在作为衡量经济增长关键指标的进口方面，8月份同比下跌2.6%，11月份则与上年同期持平。

So far,9/October is the data may be abnormal,It is August and November data more accord with normal trend.In fact,August and November data looks very similar.export,A year-on-year increase of 2.7% in August,November year-on-year growth of 2.9%.And as a measure of economic growth in the key indicator of the import side,In August fell 2.6% year-on-year,November is the same with the same period last year.

　　我们能够相信中国经历了一场只有短短两个月的出口热潮吗？

We can believe that China had a only within two months of export boom?

　　来自美奇金（北京）投资咨询有限公司（J Capital Research）的杨思安（Anne Stevenson-Yang）在其11月的一封电邮提示里表示，货币投机所造成的热钱流入中国境内，也许是这段时期出口数据激增的部分原因。她表示，出口商虚报销售数据，实现以美元结账的目的。然后，他们在利用这些动过手脚的交易来取得将美元兑换成人民币的许可。其结果是，出口商通过外汇交易获利，但同时带来了一个意外结果：中国商务部发布的贸易数据虚增了出口。

From mickey gold(Beijing)Investment consulting co., LTD(j capital research)YangSiAn of(Anne Stevenson - Yang)In the November an email reminder says,Currency speculation caused by hot money into China,Maybe this period surge in export data part of the reason.She said,Exporters any sales data,To realize the purpose of the bill in us dollars.then,They are taking advantage of these moved and trade to get the permission from the us dollars into RMB.The result is,The exporter through the foreign exchange trading profits,But at the same time brought an accident results:Issued by the ministry of commerce trade data virtual increase the export.

　　来自《南华早报》（South China Morning Post）的汤姆·霍兰德（Tom Holland）报道了一种更为巧妙的安排，这种安排人为拉高了中国所发布的贸易统计数据。他指出，在中国存在一种合法贸易：商品可以从中国一个地方，取道香港，运送到中国另外一个地方。例如，上海制造的零部件，先运到香港，然后从香港转运到深圳，进行最后组装，这种做法在中国是行得通的。自1997年回归之后，香港虽然是中国的领土，但并未纳入到中国的海关管辖范围内。

from[South China morning post](south China morning Post)Tom Holland(Tom Holland)Reported a more clever arrangement,This arrangement as loud and released by China's trade statistics.He pointed out that,In China there is a legal trade:Goods from China a place,Via Hong Kong,Shipped to China's another place.Such as,Shanghai manufacturing parts,First to Hong Kong,Then from Hong Kong to shenzhen,For final assembly,This kind of practice in China is practicable.Since 1997, after the return,Although Hong Kong is a part of China's territory,But not into China's customs jurisdiction.

　　大部分取道香港的“内地-香港-内地”式进出口贸易的目的在于“逃税”，其中好处是巨大的。

Most via Hong Kong"The mainland - Hong Kong - the mainland"Type import and export trade is aimed at"Tax evasion",The benefit is huge.

　　中国税收制度规定，电子产品出口可享受17%的增值税退税待遇。此外，根据《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》的规定，如果增值税已在香港征收，出口到内地的商品，大陆进口环节不再另行征收。霍兰德说道，“然后仅需要提供象征意义的发票，你就可以完成一次逃税‘骗局’并‘节省’了不少真金实银；但十之八九，这些商品根本就没有必要从内地出口到香港。

China's tax system regulation,Electronic products export can enjoy 17% value-added tax drawback treatment.In addition,According to the[The mainland and Hong Kong about building closer economic partnership arrangement]regulations,If the value added tax has set up a file in the Hong Kong collection,Export to the mainland's goods,The mainland will no longer import collection.Holland said,"Then only need to provide symbolic invoice,You can complete a tax evasion‘scam’and‘save’A lot of gold solid silver;But nine times out of ten,These goods didn't need to export from mainland China to Hong Kong.

　　霍兰德认为，过去12个月以来，与这种税收操作有关的人民币贸易额“可能已经超过1万亿元”。无论如何，就交易量而言，这些虚假的贸易看起来要高过合法的人民币投机交易。一名著名的欧洲记者不久前表示，这种为逃税而往返香港的进出口贸易“相当有规模”。他指出，香港官员就此类虚假贸易通知了北京方面，而“北京方面到目前为止一直无动于衷”。

Holland think,Over the past 12 months,And this kind of tax operation of the yuan trade"May have more than 1 trillion yuan".No matter how,In terms of volume is,These false trade seems to be above the legal RMB speculative trading.A famous European journalists said not long ago,This for tax evasion and return Hong Kong's import and export trade"Considerable scale".He pointed out that,Hong Kong officials such false trade informed Beijing,and"Beijing so far have been indifferent".

　　为什么香港政府自己不打击这些交易呢？

Why the Hong Kong government do not blow these deals?

　　其中一个原因是，这些交易抬高了香港地区发生的人民币流通量的的统计结果。霍兰德认为，很有可能，所有这些虚构的贸易都使用了人民币结算方式，以避免产生外汇交易费用。此外，虚构的交易抬高了中国的进出口数据，同时人为抬高了人民币结算的贸易数据，而这点符合中国方面的主观愿望。

One reason is that,These deals to raise to the Hong Kong area happened in circulation of the statistical results.Holland think,Very likely,All of these imaginary trade are using the RMB settlement way,To avoid foreign exchange transaction costs.In addition,Fictitious trading up China's import and export data,At the same time human drive up RMB settlement of trade data,And this accord with China's subjective desire.

　　霍兰德的报告甚是有趣，不过它未能解释清楚中国9月至10月出口激增的原因所在。但是，他确实向大家呈现了一点：通常情况下，这些避税交易，都让中国内地的贸易数据注入了水分。

Holland's report is very interesting,But it failed to explain China on September to October export surge of reason.but,He did to you a little present:usually,These tax avoidance trading,Let the Chinese mainland trade data into the water.

　　通过这些交易来填补中国的贸易统计数据的做法，到底有多长的历史了？这些人为制造的贸易可能要追溯到2010年，因为从当年开始，进出口商在结算前一年的贸易时，开始使用人民币作为贸易结算的币种。

Through these deals to fill China's trade statistics approach,How long history?These man-made trade may be traced back to 2010,Because from the start,Import and export business in a year prior to the settlement of trade,Begin to use RMB as a trade settlement currency.