2013年全球经济发展环境可能有所改善，但弱势增长的态势难以根本性改变。在主要经济体对外贸易增速普遍放缓或负增长的情况下，预计2013年我国出口增速较今年有所回升，但难有大幅改善，仍将远低于过去十年的平均增速。

In 2013, the global economy development environment may be improved,But the weak growth failed to be a fundamental change.In the main foreign trade economy growth slowdown in common or under the condition of negative growth,It is estimated that our export growth this year is recovered,But difficult to have improved a lot,Will still far below the average growth in the past ten years.

　　明年国际经济形势依然充满变数，但部分领域已现积极变化。欧洲不断寻求缓解债务危机的办法，美国再工业化成效初显，各国财政金融方面再推刺激政策。随着2013年美欧日等主要经济体继续推行量化宽松政策以推动经济复苏，新兴经济体也将在积极政策的刺激下缓慢低速复苏。

Next year the international economic situation is still full of variables,But part of the field has been positive changes now.European consistently seek to ease the debt crisis,The United States and industrialization early results show,All financial aspects then push to stimulus policies.With the us and Europe in 2013, and other major economies continue to implement quantitative easing policy to promote economic recovery,Emerging economies will be positive policy stimulus slowly slow recovery.

　　全球制造业回暖趋势已确立。今年11月，摩根大通全球制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从10月49.2%升至49.7%，连续6个月低于50%。从区域来看，全球制造业PMI所覆盖的23个国家(区域)中，有15个国家(区域)的制造业PMI仍处于收缩状态，但较多处在跌幅收窄阶段。今年11月，全球就业指数为49.6%，比10月上升0.6%。

Global manufacturing milder trend has established.November,Jp Morgan global manufacturing purchasing managers' indices(PMI)From October 49.2% to 49.7%,Continuous 6 months less than 50%.From regional to see,Global manufacturing PMI covering 23 countries(area)in,15 countries(area)Manufacturing PMI is still in the state of contraction,But more narrow stage in fall.November,Global employment index is 49.6%,More than ten months rose 0.6%.

　　就国内经济看，明年我国经济增速可能较2012年有所改善，但经济企稳的基础还不稳固，国内需求增长受到一些体制、机制因素的制约，部分行业产能过剩较为突出，企业生产经营仍面临较多困难。

Just look at the domestic economy,China's economic growth next year may be improved compared with 2012,But the economy stabilises foundation is not solid,Domestic demand growth by some system/Factor of the mechanism,Part of the industry overcapacity more outstanding,The production and operation of enterprises still face more difficulties.

　　综合国内国外情况，2013年我国外贸发展面临的内外部环境可能略好于2012年，但风险因素叠加仍将对我国外贸发展造成较大压力，突出表现在以下方面：一是外需不足的矛盾尚未根本缓解。在世界经济复苏态势疲软、风险持续高企的情况下，我国出口企业订单不足的问题依然突出，特别是短单、小单多，长单、大单少的局面还将持续。二是贸易摩擦的影响持续加大，中国是贸易保护主义的最大受害者。三是转变外贸发展方式的任务更加紧迫。近年来，中国要素成本上升较快，在一定程度上削弱了制造业的成本竞争力，外贸难现前些年的持续高速增长。

Comprehensive domestic and international situation,In 2013, foreign trade development facing the inside and outside environment may be slightly better than 2012 years,But the risk factors superposition will still to our country foreign trade development cause greater pressure,Outstanding performance in the following aspects:One is the contradiction of insufficient now has not been fundamentally ease.In the world economic recovery situation weakness/Risk for high case,Our export enterprise of a shortage of orders problems still outstanding,Especially short single/Little more than single,Long single/The largest single less situation will continue.The second is the influence of the trade friction continue to widen,China is the biggest victims of trade protectionism.Three is to change the way of foreign trade development task more urgent.In recent years,China's rapid rise in the cost of elements,To a certain extent weakened the manufacturing cost competitiveness,Foreign trade is difficult years of continuous growth.

　　随着稳增长和促外贸一系列政策效果的逐步释放以及后续配套政策的陆续出台，预计2013年我国出口增速较今年有所回升，但难有大幅改善，仍将远低于过去十年的平均增速，进口增速将有所提高。2013年上半年，因美国“财政悬崖”问题、我国春节等因素影响，外贸增长会出现暂时性波动。2013年三四季度，全球不确定因素若转为明朗，外贸增速有望继续回升。

With the steady growth and promote foreign trade a series of policy effect gradually release and subsequent supporting policy comes on stage in succession,It is estimated that our export growth this year is recovered,But difficult to have improved a lot,Will still far below the average growth in the past ten years,Imports will be improved.In the first half of 2013,Because the United States"Fiscal cliff"problems/The impact of factors such as the Spring Festival in China,Foreign trade growth will be temporarily fluctuation.Three or four quarter in 2013,Global uncertainties if to clear,Foreign trade growth is expected to continue to rebound.

　　国际经验表明，中国出口的高增长可能已触及“天花板”(一国出口金额占全球GDP的比重不超过3%，一国出口金额全球占比不超过10%)。这意味着我国出口高速增长传统模式的黄金期已过，中长期内出口增速上升空间有限，将在低水平企稳。2013年美欧等发达国家私人与公共部门仍处在去杠杆的过程中，必然伴随其贸易逆差的纠正。对应地，中国和其他新兴工业国贸易顺差将随之减少。我国出口竞争力正处稳步下滑通道之中，以大宗商品进口为主的一般贸易逆差将持续扩大，总体顺差将呈收窄趋势，贸易顺差占GDP的比例将进一步下行。

International experience shows that,China's export growth may have touched"ceiling"(One country export value share of global GDP not more than 3%,One country export value than global accounts for no more than 10%).This means that our export growth mode of traditional gold period has passed,In the medium and long term export growth ascendant space is limited,Will be in low level stabilises.In 2013, developed countries such as the us and Europe private and public sector is still in the process of to leverage,With its trade deficit will correct.Corresponding to,China and other emerging industrialized countries trade surplus will decrease.Our export competitiveness are steadily declined in the channel,With commodity import primarily general trade deficit will continue to expand,Overall surplus would be a narrow trend,The trade surplus of GDP will further down.

　　国际环境倒逼我们扩大内需，提高创新能力，促进外贸发展方式转变。要由以劳动密集型为主的产业结构向资本和技术密集型的产业结构转变，扩大高新技术产业的外向程度，培育品牌，重视营销网络和研发设计，由“中国制造”向“中国创造”转变。要继续稳定和扩大中国出口在国际市场中份额，发挥进口对结构调整的支持作用，促进国际收支平衡。

International environmental DaoBi we expand domestic demand,Improve innovation ability,To promote foreign trade development mode change.By mainly in labor-intensive industry structure to the capital and technology intensive industrial structure transformation,Expand the high and new technology industry's outgoing degree,Cultivating brand,Attach importance to the marketing network, and the research and development design,the"Made in China"to"Created in China"change.China will continue to stabilize and expand the export in the international market share,Play imports on the function of support structure adjustment,Promote the balance of international payments.