面对低迷的外需市场，2012年中国外贸增速要实现10%的目标，已经不太可能。

In the face of the weak external demand market,In 2012 China's foreign trade growth to realize the goal of 10%,Is unlikely.

　　“今年全年大致为6%。目前全年外贸增速并没有写进报告，因为从1月1日到12月15日，进出口增速为5.7%，但是到了12月20日，增速就为6.4%。”在日前举行的全国商务工作会议上，商务部部长陈德铭脱稿作了上述表示。

"Throughout the year roughly 6%.Now for the growth of foreign trade and not written into the report,Because from January 1 to December 15,Import and export growth of 5.7%,But in the dec. 20,Growth of 6.4%."At a national conference on business a few days ago,The ministry of commerce minister Chen deming improvised made the remarks.

　　商务部多位副部长、各省市区商务主管部门、开发区及驻外的数百位代表参加了此次会议。陈德铭在会上说，2012年商务部落实和完善稳定外贸增长的各项政策，预计全年进出口总额在3.8万亿美元以上，增速在6%左右，出口占全球份额升至11%左右。

More than the ministry of commerce, vice minister/Different provinces departments of commercial administration/Development zone and hundreds of representatives abroad took part in the meeting.Chen deming said at the meeting,In 2012 the ministry of commerce implement all policies and improve the stability of the foreign trade growth,Is expected to total import and export of the year in more than 3.8 trillion dollars,Growth at around 6%,The export share of the global rose to 11%.

　　陈德铭说，目前消费对我国经济增长贡献率从2007年的39.6%提高至2012年的55%左右，预计全年社会消费品零售总额达21万亿元，增长14%左右。同时，预计2012年进出口3.8万亿美元以上，出口占全球份额升至11%左右。此外，全年实际使用外资有望达到1100亿美元，全年非金融类对外直接投资超过700亿美元。

Chen deming said,Current consumption of China's economic growth contribution rate from 39.6% in 2007 to 55% in 2012,Annual total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to reach 21 trillion yuan,Growth of 14%.At the same time,Import and export in 2012 is expected to more than 3.8 trillion dollars,The export share of the global rose to 11%.In addition,For the actual use of foreign capital is expected to total $110 billion,Non-financial sectors for foreign direct investment more than 70 billion dollars.

　　陈德铭说，2013年商务部将加快调结构转方式，促进对外贸易稳定发展。

Chen deming said,In 2013 the ministry of commerce will speed up the structure way,Promote the stable development of foreign trade.

　　2013年外需市场仍存变数

Are still variables external demand market in 2013

　　不论从哪方面看， 明年外需市场的不确定性，并不会比让中国企业倍感煎熬的2012年小。

No matter from which aspect, The uncertainty of external demand market next year,Will not be smaller than in 2012 for China's enterprises are suffering.

　　国务院发展研究中心对外经济研究部部长隆国强就对《第一财经（微博)日报》记者表示，如果今年三季度经济谷底得到确认，那么明年经济会比今年略好。但明年从外部来看比今年复杂，明年欧债危机还会延续，美国财政悬崖肯定会有所作为，但不管如何作为，其力度都不足以抵消6000亿美元带来的影响。

Under the state council development research center of foreign economic research department long lung kingdom strong on[The first finance and economics(Micro bo)daily]reporters,If the economic bottom confirmed three quarters of the year,So next year the economy will be better than slightly this year.But from the outside to see next year than this year,European debt crisis will continue next year,U.S. fiscal cliff will certainly make a difference,But no matter how,Its strength is not enough to offset the impact of $600 billion.

　　商务部原副部长魏建国也对本报记者表示，明年的外贸形势不太乐观，主要有三方面的不确定性：首先，我国最大的贸易伙伴——欧盟的债务危机解决前景不明朗；其次，美国经济数据恢复能否持续未知；最后，明年的贸易保护主义可能比今年更为严重。不仅是美国、欧盟，我国和新兴国家之间的贸易摩擦也会加剧。

The former vice minister of ministry of commerce wei jianguo to our reporter said,Next year the foreign trade situation is not optimistic,Mainly has three aspects: the uncertainty:In the first place,China's largest trading partner, the debt crisis of the European Union to solve future uncertain;The second,U.S. economic data recovery can be sustained;At last,Trade protectionism next year may be more severe than this year.Is not only the United States/The European Union,Trade friction between China and emerging countries will also be increased.

　　在这种情况下，明年外贸增速目标如何制定成为各方争论的问题。此前有相关负责人对本报记者表示，明年外贸增速若按照今年目标，有较大完成难度。有相关人士甚至对本报记者表示，2013年外贸增长目标即使是“保八”都有难度。

In this case,Next year the foreign trade growth target the problem of how to establish a controversy.Previous related person in charge of our reporter said,Foreign trade growth next year if, in accordance with the target this year,Complete the difficulty is greater.Have relevant personage and even to our reporter said,Foreign trade growth target even in 2013"The eight"Have difficulty.

　　商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院院长霍建国也认为，2013年进出口增速会略高于今年，甚至有望超过明年GDP增速，但外部情况难言有明显好转，因此，外贸仍难改变低位增长的态势。

The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute HuoJianGuo also think,Import and export growth this year will be slightly higher than in 2013,Even is expected to more than GDP growth next year,But the external circumstances last have improved significantly,so,The growth of foreign trade is still difficult to change the low.

　　魏建国认为，即便如此，明年外贸目标依然不会调整，还会维持在10%。这主要有两个方面的考虑：一是今年中国出台了一系列促外贸的鼓励政策，这些政策到明年才会收到良好的效果。二是我们对新兴市场开拓有所进展，市场多元化取得了成功，中国对非洲、东盟、金砖国家的出口发展趋势良好，这在一定程度上能带动出口增加。 

Wei jianguo think,Even so,Next year the foreign trade target still not adjust,Will remain at 10%.That there are two major aspects of the consideration:One is this year China has published a series of encouraging policies to promote the foreign trade,These policies until next year will receive good effect.Second is we can make progress in emerging market development,Market diversification has achieved success,China in Africa/Association of southeast Asian nations/The export of gold ingot national development trend is good,This can lead to a certain extent increase exports. 

　　“扩内需”仍需更多手段

"Expanding domestic demand"Still need more

　　扩内需，是中国转变经济发展方式的中长期路径，也是在全球经济低迷状况下中国有别于他国的重要增长潜力。

Expanding domestic demand,Is China's economic growth mode transformation of the medium and long term path,Also in the global economic downturn situation in China is different from the other countries of the important growth potential.

　　陈德铭指出，2013年商务工作要全面贯彻落实党的十八大精神，按照中央经济工作会议部署，以提高增长质量和效益为中心，坚持扩大内需战略，加快转变对外经济发展方式，稳中求进，开拓创新，增强商务发展内生动力，实现商务事业持续健康发展。

Chen deming pointed out that,18 2013 business work to fully implement the party's great spirit,According to the central economic work conference deployment,In order to improve the increase quality and efficiency as the center,Adhere to the strategy of boosting domestic demand,Accelerate transformation of the mode of economic development,WenZhongQiuJin,Pioneering and innovative,To enhance business development of endogenous power,To realize the business enterprise sustained and healthy development.

　　陈德铭说，2013年，在完善消费促进体系，积极培育消费新增长点方面，需要引导热点消费，倡导绿色循环消费，提升便利消费，保障安全消费。

Chen deming said,In 2013,,In perfecting consumption promoting system,Actively cultivate new consumption growth,Need to guide the hot spot of consumption,Advocate green consumption recycling,Ascension convenient consumption,Ensure safety consumption.

　　从相关人士的表态看，服务性消费、网络购物、物流、有机农业等，或成为下一步消费新增长点。商务部流通业发展司司长向欣曾在本报撰文认为，按照消费结构变化规律，中国的服务消费将会是今后增长最快的领域。特别是家庭服务、旅游文化、体育保健等服务需求将越来越旺。同时，城镇化过程也将创造出对流通服务业的需求。

From the relevant personage of the statement,expenditure/The network shopping/logistics/Organic agriculture and so on,Or become a new growth point next consumption.Ministry of commerce of the circulation industry development XiangXin in our newspaper articles,In accordance with the law of consumption structure,China's service consumption will be the fastest growth in the future.Especially the family services/Tourism culture/Sports health services demand will more and more popular.At the same time,Urbanization process will also create the need for the circulation service.

　　业内普遍认为，流通体制改革是扩大内需最重要的突破口。然而，受困于目前经济下行压力，更快地通过投资和出口来提振经济，相较于扩大内需，似乎更为急迫。

The industry is generally accepted that,Circulation system reform is the expansion of domestic demand is the most important breakthrough.However,,Trapped in the present economic downward pressure,Faster through investment and exports to boost the economy,Compared with the expansion of domestic demand,Seems to be more urgent.

　　本报2012年9月连续数篇报道曾阐释这一两难，对于政策制定和操作者而言，“扩内需”政策是一个艰难的、需要极大智慧的考验。数位接近政策制定人士曾对本报记者表示，相当多的内贸政策落实尚存难度。

This newspaper in September 2012 for several reports have explained the dilemma,For policy making and the operator,"Expanding domestic demand"Policy is one of the difficult/Need to the test of great wisdom.Digital close to policy making people had told our reporter said,Quite a number of domestic trade policy implementation is difficult.

　　所谓实际问题，正是对“保增长”路径的分歧。有意见认为，要改变目前经济下行的状况，以投资和改善出口为主要抓手，见效会更快，而不是促进消费。换言之，以财政补贴，或者免税、退税、贴息之类的手段来促进消费的政策，都受到很多现实因素制约。

The actual problem,It is to"The growth"The path of differences.Have any questions on that,To change under the present economic situation,Mainly for investment and improve the export,Effective will be faster,Rather than promoting consumption.In other words,With financial subsidies,Or exemption/drawback/Of interest, such as the means to promote the consumption of policy,Are restricted by many factors.

　　商务部部长助理房爱卿在去年国新办举行的流通产业发展和保障市场供应情况新闻会上的表述，就颇有意味。他指出，扩大消费，国务院非常重视，把它作为一项长期的发展战略。但眼前有一些因素，使消费产生了一些趋缓的状况，包括国际需求萎缩、一些工业增速放缓等因素，都影响了消费的增长。

Assistant minister of the ministry of commerce room love qing country newly established last year at the circulation industry development and guarantee market availability of news conference,Is quite meaningful.He pointed out that,Expanding consumer,Attaches great importance to the state council,Take it as a long-term development strategy.But there are some factors,To produce some slowing consumption,Including international demand atrophy/Some factors, such as industrial growth slowdown,All affect the growth of the consumer.

　　（郭丽琴）

(GuoLiQin)