接二连三的量化宽松政策的推出，表明了美国恢复其经济的决心和力度。QE4的到来使人们感觉到美国经济复苏的脚步越来越快。其经济形势的好转是否会对中国经济产生利好？2013年中国经济能否一直处于回暖的状态？在这样的经济形势氛围中，利率市场化的进程会有哪些需要逐一突破的环节？兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委就相关问题对《经济》记者做出如下解读。

Of the quantitative easing,Show the determination and strength of the economic recovery in the United States.QE4 make people feel the arrival of the pace of economic recovery in the United States is becoming more and more fast.The improvement of the economic situation will produce positive to China's economy?In 2013, the Chinese economy could not have been in a state of warmer?In this economic situation atmosphere,What are the process of interest rate liberalization will need one breakthrough link?The bank's chief economist commissar lu to on the correlative question[economic]Reporter made as follows.

　　QE4对中国挑战大于利好

QE4 challenge in China is more than good

　　《经济》：2012年12月12日，美国联邦公开市场委员会宣布，将从2013年1月起，每月购买450亿美元长期美国国债，即第四轮量化宽松措施（QE4），以替代到期的“扭转操作”工具。这是否意味着美国经济复苏的速度在不断加快，美元汇率将走高？

[economic]:On December 12, 2012,The federal open market committee announced,From January 2013,$45 billion a month long-term Treasury bonds,Is the fourth quantitative loose measures(QE4),Due to replace"Reverse the operation"tools.Does this mean that the speed of economic recovery in the United States continue to speed up,The dollar exchange rate will be higher?

　　鲁政委：确实。前两轮量化宽松每次推出都证实了大家对美国经济的悲观预期。然而从QE3开始，每推出一轮宽松政策，都会发现美国经济复苏较以往更加坚实，同时也意味着美国未来的通胀要有所增长，且速度比预想快。这两个因素都会导致美元汇率的走强，我认为QE4会像QE3推出一样导致美元的震荡上行。

Commissar lu:indeed.Before two quantitative loose every launch confirmed all of the American economy pessimistic expectations.However, since QE3,Each time a loose policy,Will find more solid economic recovery in the United States than ever before,At the same time also means that inflation will increase for the future of the United States of America,And faster than expected.These two factors will lead to a stronger dollar,I think QE4 will like QE3 launched in dollar concussion uplink.

　　《经济》：如果美国经济好转、美元汇率走强，是否也会给中国经济特别是出口造成一定影响？

[economic]:If the us economy/A stronger dollar,Whether will cause certain influence to China's economy, especially the export?

　　鲁政委：美国经济好转不一定会利好中国出口。中国对美国的出口和美国经济变化之间的相关性在降低。可以发现最近三年中，中国对美国出口的同比增速都在降低，但期间美国经济也有过好转。如果QE4出台像QE3一样鼓舞人民币升值的预期，那对中国经济特别是出口反倒有负位的影响。

Commissar lu:The economy better not necessarily good Chinese exports.China's exports to America and the correlation between the economic changes in the United States.Can be found in recent three years,China the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States are reduced,But during the American economy had improved.If QE4 issued like QE3 inspire the expected appreciation of the renminbi,The export of China's economy especially but has a negative effect.

　　《经济》：QE4推出之后汇率升值贬值的预期会影响外汇占款，是否会带来流动性的压力？

[economic]:QE4 launched after the exchange rate appreciation expectations affect the value of the foreign exchange gap,Whether can bring liquidity pressure?

　　鲁政委：除非外汇占款出现突然的大规模的变化，否则人民银行都会通过增减逆回购的量最终把需要的流动性调到适当的水平上，并不是不管外汇占款多少都是同样的逆回购量，所以对于流动性的影响可以忽略不计。

Commissar lu:Unless the foreign exchange gap appear sudden change of mass,Otherwise will of the people's bank through the amount of increase or decrease of inverse repurchase in the need of liquidity to the appropriate level,Not no matter how much the exchange gap are the same inverse repurchase,So for the influence of the liquidity can be neglected.

　　《经济》：QE4推出后，香港金管局总裁公开表示QE4对香港风险更高。您怎么看这个问题？

[economic]:After the QE4,Hong Kong the hkma President publicly QE4 higher risk in Hong Kong.How do you see this problem?

　　鲁政委：这一次的量化宽松对于中国经济的挑战大于利好。尤其现在香港已经快撑不住，金管局频繁入市干预，香港的楼市在美元的介入过程中一定会崩盘，在2017-2022年间非常危险。这一波的影响力相对于1997年来说有过之而无不及。

Commissar lu:This time the quantitative loose for the challenges of China's economy is more than good.Especially Hong Kong has fast could not support now,The hkma frequent market intervention,Hong Kong's property market will collapse in the process of the involvement of $,Between 2017 and 2022 is very dangerous.The influence of the wave relative to 1997 for.

　　2013年货币政策不会太过刺激

Monetary policy would not too stimulating in 2013

　　《经济》：政府也已经表示接下来的货币政策会继续保持稳定性和连续性，那么您预计货币政策同2012年相比将有什么不同？

[economic]:The government has also said the next monetary policy will continue to maintain the stability and continuity,You are expected to monetary policy compared with 2012, there will be any different?

　　鲁政委：2013年的货币政策和2012年下半年比不会有特别的变化。国家过去说要保持经济平稳快速发展，但现在已经不再强调。习近平发表讲话时也说要没有水分地发展，推进结构转型升级。所以预期2013年M2还是会定调在14%，2012年全年新增贷款在8.3万亿元，2013年估计也会在9万亿以内。

Commissar lu:In 2013, the monetary policy and the second half of 2012 than there will be no special change.Countries to maintain stable and rapid economic development in the past,But now no longer.Xi jinping speaking also said without water,Promote the transformation and upgrading of the structure.So expect 2013 M2 will be set at 14%,For the year 2012 in new loans 8.3 trillion yuan,Estimates will be 2013 in 9 trillion.

　　《经济》：目前大家普遍预测中国经济回暖态势会持续到2013年一季度，是否意味着到2013年中期，经济会受到外围的影响出现下行？

[economic]:At present is widely forecast China's economy warmer trend will continue to 2013 years in the first quarter,Does that mean to the middle of 2013,Economy will be affected by the influence of the peripheral appear down?

　　鲁政委：外围影响不是中国经济走势的决定因素。面对眼下全球局势，只要政策应对得当，可以最大限度地避免经济危机。以澳大利亚为例，这个同中国经济本质上很相似的高度出口型经济国家，20年来逃避了东西方经济的历次衰退。然而反观中国，尽管不属于受到正面冲突的国家，但每次付出的代价并不少，原因在于中国刚性的汇率承担了别国转移过来的危机成本，当部分国家对美元贬值时，我们还站在高处。

Commissar lu:Outer influence is not decisive factor of China's economic situation.In the face of the global situation at the moment,As long as the policy to deal with it,Can avoid the maximum economic crisis.Australia, for example,This with the Chinese economy in essence is similar to the height of the export-oriented economy,Twenty years from the eastern and western all previous recession of the economy.However, in China,Even though it is not belong to the country by the direct conflict,But every time the price is less,The reason is that China's rigid exchange rates for other countries transferred the crisis of the cost,When part of the country to the dollar,We are standing on high.

　　人民币汇率到了“阴阳界”

The RMB exchange rate"World of Yin and Yang"

　　《经济》：近日您也曾提到人民币汇率已经到了“阴阳界”，具体应该怎么理解？

[economic]:Recently you also mentioned the RMB exchange rate has arrived"World of Yin and Yang",Specific how should understand?

　　鲁政委：也就是说目前境内人民币涨得越高，未来就有可能掉得越狠。如果单纯从市场情况来看，人民币即期在升值，那么远期升值的预期也是在加大的。但这一次跟以往都不同，即便天天涨停，相对贬值的预期也没有变。贬值的预期表明已经快到经济承受的极限。过去说货币是低估的，无论怎么升都是低估。但现在不一样。现在既然已经快到升值极限，就表明很快会掉下来，人民币已经到了随时出现逆转的临界点，这就是我说的阴阳界。

Commissar lu:That is now within the territory of the RMB has the higher,In the future are likely to fall more malicious.If only from the market situation,Available by draft at sight in renminbi appreciation,Then forward the expected appreciation is also on the increase.But this time is different with before,Even if every day harden,The value of the relative expectations are unchanged.Depreciation of the expected that has come to economic limits of bear.In the past say currency is undervalued,No matter how l is undervalued.But now is not the same.Now that has come to appreciate the limit,It shows that will fall down soon,The critical point of RMB has come to change at any time,This is what I said the Yin and Yang.

　　《经济》：作为全球最大的贸易国，中国外汇市场规模却是全球倒数。这其中有什么需要我们注意的？

[economic]:As the world's largest trading nation,China's foreign exchange market scale is from around the world.There are what we need to pay attention to?

　　鲁政委：这充分说明了企业目前的避险意识存在巨大风险。本身避险意识不强，即使避险也是非对称的避险安排，只知美元贬值人民币升值是风险，而忽略了美元升值人民币贬值也有风险。提高企业的风险意识很重要。首先，企业自行管理汇率风险。其次不能仅仅猜测汇率波动的方向或者是下赌注，而应该做出切合实际的应对措施。

Commissar lu:This fully shows that the enterprise at present, there are huge in the sense of hedge risk.Itself a hedge consciousness is not strong,Even a hedge is a symmetrical arrangement of hedge,Only know the dollar appreciation of the renminbi is risk,And ignore the RMB appreciation against the dollar devaluation can also have risks.Enhance the enterprise the risk awareness is very important.In the first place,Enterprise management by exchange rate risk.Second can't just guess the direction of the exchange rate fluctuations or gambling,But should make a practical measures.

　　《经济》：汇率变化对于我国经济的影响日益受到关注。我们也一直保持着“对美元稳定”，您觉得在当前的经济局势下，这一政策是否也要做出相应的调整？

[economic]:The influence of the exchange rate changes to China's economic is becoming more and more attention.We also have been maintained"Stable against the dollar",Do you think in the current economic situation,Whether the policy will make corresponding adjustment?

　　鲁政委：简单保持“对美元稳定”政策，其实并不能使我国免受外部影响，反倒会使经济全面暴露于国际经济的剧烈冲击之下而被动承受巨大冲击。如果采取对美元汇率更富弹性同时“保持人民币有效汇率稳定”的政策，则能够最大限度地降低不利国际环境的冲击，从而保持国内经济的稳定。

Commissar lu:Easy to maintain"Stable against the dollar"policy,Actually does not make from external influence in our country,But can make economic comprehensive exposure under the intense shock of international economy and passive bear huge impact.If adopt more flexible exchange rate against the dollar at the same time"Keep the RMB exchange rate stability effectively"The policy of,Can as to minimize adverse impact of international environment,So as to maintain the stability of domestic economy.

　　《经济》：目前我国的“人口红利”由升转降，关于增长潜力下降的议论很多。您怎么看这个问题？

[economic]:At present our country of the"Demographic dividend"From up to down,Talk a lot about the growth potential decline.How do you see this problem?

　　鲁政委：很多人建议尽快改善“一胎化”的人口政策。但在我看来，比放开人口政策更为根本的，应当是加快金融市场发展。人口红利对经济的最大影响，是红利存在时期的高储蓄和高投资，以及二者支持下的高增长；而红利消退之后，就会出现储蓄率下降造成投资不足、经济增速下降。绝大多数国家的经济增长都受制于国内储蓄，但是作为全球金融市场核心的国家可以避免这种情况的发生，目前只有美国做到，即便在国民储蓄为负的情况下，也能够借助于外部资金来支持其技术创新。从这一点来说，克服“人口红利”的关键，在于加快国内金融市场的发展和开放，尽快成为一个全球市场。

Commissar lu:Many Suggestions to improve as soon as possible"one-child"The population policy.But in my opinion,More fundamental than open population policy,Should be speed up the development of financial markets.Demographic dividend the greatest influence on the economy,There is a bonus period of high savings and investment,And under the support of the growth;And after dividend wore,There will be savings rates decline in investment/Economic growth decline.The vast majority of the country's economic growth by domestic savings,But as the core of the global financial markets can avoid the happening of this kind of situation in the country,At present, only the United States,Even in the case of national savings is negative,Can also with the help of external funding to support the technology innovation.From this point,To overcome the"Demographic dividend"The key to,Is to speed up the development of the domestic financial market and open,As a global market as soon as possible.

　　利率市场化需通胀目标制

Interest rate marketization to inflation targeting

　　《经济》：利率市场化已经成为接下来金融改革的重要议题，现在还有哪些障碍需要突破？

[economic]:Interest rate marketization has become the important issues in financial reform,Now what obstacles needed to be broken?

　　鲁政委：利率市场化首先要面对的是如何定利率。但是如果存贷双方不能就通胀预期达成共识，也就不可能出现一个合理的价格。目前只有央行能让人们就通胀预期达成共识，就是建立通胀目标制。假如央行承诺在可以预期的水平内都把通胀维持在4%附近，那利率就可以围绕4%上下来讨价还价。

Commissar lu:Interest rate marketization is the first to face how to set interest rates.But if the loan the two parties fail to reach a consensus on inflation expectations,Also can not be the emergence of a reasonable price.At present only the central bank to allow people to reach a consensus on inflation expectations,Is to set up the inflation targeting regime.If the bank promised to maintain inflation within can expect the level of around 4%,The interest rate will be around 4% down on the bargaining.

　　《经济》：具体的存款利率和贷款利率又该如何确定？

[economic]:The deposit interest rate and loan interest rate and how to determine?

　　鲁政委：定贷款利率很简单，现在市场中很多债跟贷款很像，可以作为参考。但是存款并没有类似的标杆。所以呼吁人民银行允许金融机构发行CD（大面额可转让定期存单），确定公开买存款的标准化价格，就可以在CD的价格基础上进行调整。现在的问题是如何对企业和个人发CD，找到定价参照。

Commissar lu:On loan interest rate is very simple,Now in the market a lot of debt like a loan,Can be used as a reference.But there is no similar deposits and benchmarking.So called for allowing financial institutions of the people's bank issued a CD(A big negotiable certificates of deposit),Determine the price of the standardization of public buy deposit,It can be adjusted on the basis of the price of the CD.The question now is how to enterprise and individual hair CD,Find pricing reference.

　　《经济》：接下来是不是还要确立新的政策指标利率？

[economic]:Next is to establish the new policy target rate?

　　鲁政委：确实。在日常的市场当中要为债券定价，如果未来存贷款浮动的区间不断打开，就意味着央行给出的中间价越来越没有意义，那就要给出一个新的政策指标利率。根据西方成熟的经验，都是选择两周以内的正回购或者逆回购的利率来作为政策指标利率，所以人民银行要把现在的逆回购常态化，而且要清楚地固定一个期限，现在有7天、14天、28天，我认为只给7天就可以。除非央行对经济形势的看法发生变化，否则不应该随便调整逆回购的利率。

Commissar lu:indeed.In the daily market for bonds pricing,If future loan floating interval continuously open,Means that the central bank is the middle of the price is more and more meaningless,That is about to give a new policy target rate.According to the experience of the western mature,Is choice within two weeks of positive repurchase or inverse repurchase rate as the index of interest rate policy,So now to the people's bank of inverse repurchase normal,Fixed a deadline and clearly,There are 7 days/14 days/28 days,I think only for 7 days.Unless the bank views on the economic situation changes,Otherwise it should not be casually reverse repurchase rate adjustment.

　　《经济》：利率市场化会导致利差收窄，这是否意味着不仅仅银行要进行转型调整，国家政策上也要给这些变化以后续的支撑？

[economic]:Interest rate marketization leads to narrow interest spread,Does this mean that not only the bank to carry out transformation and adjustment,National policy will give follow-up support to these changes?

　　鲁政委：如果要为存款定价，就要取消存贷比。如果不取消，定价也就不理性。现在大家都在说要提高中间业务收入，但是如果比较西方同业，可以发现其中间收入是当前分业体制监管之下所禁止的。严格的分业监管和利差保护是对称的，如果不再进行利差保护，那就要放开混业经营的限制。

Commissar lu:If you want to deposit,Shall cancel the loan.If you don't cancel,Pricing is not rational.Now everyone says to improve intermediary business income,But if more western counterparts,Can be found between income are prohibited under the supervision of segregation is the current system.Strictly supervised and interest protection is symmetrical,If no longer of interest protection,That is about to release the limit of mixed operation.

　　未来十年土地财政仍会存在

Over the next 10 years land finance will still exist

　　《经济》：房价依然居高不下，您预期未来国家会不会继续进行调整？

[economic]:House prices are still high,You expected future countries will continue to adjust?

　　鲁政委：目前政府对房价调控的意志还在，政府也多次强调城镇化是内需最大的需求所在，然而过高的房价提高了城镇化的门槛。

Commissar lu:The will of the government to control house prices are still standing,Government has repeatedly stressed that the urbanization is the largest demand in the domestic demand,Too high house prices, however, raised the threshold of the urbanization.

　　我认为未来还是会坚持调控。由于汇率偏高、出口乏力让大家觉得，既然汇率不能调，就对内采取放松政策，这导致对房地产调控的决心出现弱化。此外，高汇率导致中国工业企业的利润降低，因为人民币汇率与出口企业的利润有非常强烈的反向关系。大家从做实业转移到房地产，就出现升值所带来的资产泡沫化的风险。

I think the future will still adhere to the regulation.Due to the exchange rate on the high side/Export weakness let everybody feel,Since the exchange rate can't,Is internal policy to relax,This lead to determination of the real estate regulation becomes weak.In addition,High rate lead to lower profits of industrial enterprises in China,Because of the RMB exchange rate and profit of export enterprises have very strong relations of reverse.Do you from industrial transfer to real estate,As appreciation brings the risk of the assets of the frothy.

　　《经济》：土地财政是否在很长的一段时间内仍将存在？我们应该如何看待这一现象？

[economic]:Land finance is in a long period of time will still exist?How should we think about this phenomenon?

　　鲁政委：以直接或间接的方式不管以什么名目从土地上拿到的钱都可以称为土地财政，它是特定的经济发展阶段出现的产物。经济发展的每个阶段都有主导产业，在工业文明时期，城市地价有所升值，成为主导产业，其高利润自然成为地方政府收入的首选来源。

Commissar lu:In whatever names in direct or indirect way to get the money from the land can be called land finance,It is the product of specific stages of economic development.The economic development of each stage has a leading industry,In the period of industrial civilization,Urban land price has risen,Become a dominant industry,The highly profitable natural become the preferred source of income of local government.

　　从这个角度来看，土地财政本身无可厚非。这不单单是中国的事情，即使从美国的发展来看，在其工业化和城镇化的阶段，也存在土地财政的问题，只不过具体的表现形式不同。未来十年甚至更多时间里土地财政都会存在。

From this point of view,Land finance itself.Not only is China's things,Even from the perspective of the development of the United States,In the stage of industrialization and urbanization,There is the problem of land finance,Just a specific form of different.Finance will land in the future ten years even more time.

　　作者： 谢长艳 陈希琳

The author: XieChangYan ChenXiLin