基本观点：我们的估算显示，中国出口在亚洲和发达市场经济增速变化面前拥有基本相同的贝塔值，因此近几个月来中国面向亚洲出口之所以较面向发达市场出口表现坚挺，一个更合理的解释是目前亚洲经济体的周期性增速高于发达市场。相反，其他亚洲经济体的对亚洲出口贝塔值往往高于对发达市场出口贝塔值。短期内其他亚洲经济体的出口有望受益，因为我们预计中国需求有望回升而发达国家经济增长可能暂时走软。新近出现的迹象表明亚洲地区贸易纽带的深化可能已开始令中国的亚洲贝塔值有所提高，随着时间推移这有望为中国出口带来更多结构性利好。

Basic idea:Our calculations suggest,China's exports in Asia and the developed market economy growth before changes with the basic same beta value,So in the past few months to come to China to Asia export is a developed market for export performance strong,A more reasonable explanation is the periodic Asian economies grew faster than developed markets.instead,Other Asian economies of Asia export beta value often higher than the developed market to export beta value.In the short term the export of other Asian economies are expected to benefit,Because we expect the demand is expected to rebound and developed countries economic growth may temporarily go soft.Appear recently signs that Asia the deepening of trade ties may have started to make China's Asian beta value increase,Over time this will bring more for China's export structural bullish.

　　近期中国出口表现强劲，2012年四季度同比增幅达到了9%，继三季度季调后折年季环比增幅短暂(但显著)放缓之后，四季度的季调后折年季环比增幅超过了20%。固然2012年全年出口增速明显不及2011年时的近20%，但考虑到主要经济体的经济增速仅略高于零线，2012年中国强劲的出口表现仍可圈可点。

China's recent strong export,2012 in the fourth quarter year-on-year growth rate reached 9%,The third quarter season after season adjustable folding years short chain growth(But the significant)Slow after,The fourth quarter of the season after season in folding modulation link increase more than 20%.Is 2012 annual export growth significantly less than 2011 nearly 20%,But considering the major economies of the economic growth only slightly above the zero line,In 2012, China strong export performance has adequately.

　　中国出口的强劲表现主要归功于中国面向其他亚洲经济体的出口。举例来说，去年中国对东盟国家(ASEAN)出口增幅超过20%，而对G-3(美国、欧元区和日本)出口自2011年以来一直持平，参见图表1。出口的强劲增长体现在方方面面，包括机械、交运设备以及服装鞋子等中国传统出口商品。正如我们在1月5日发表的“Koreanexports—a sustained positive momentum since August 2012， disguised by weak headline numbers”报告中所述，中国强劲的内需增长是在发达经济体增长疲软之时亚洲国家出口的主要支撑因素，这反映出中国经济所占比重日益上升，而且中国内需的重要性较全球金融危机爆发前有所提高。我们在本文中进一步探讨了发达市场以及亚洲经济体经济增长在解释包括中国在内亚洲各经济体出口表现时的相对重要性。我们主要的问题在于，考虑到短期内发达经济体复苏缓慢、或有波折，亚洲区域内贸易将在多大程度上有助于未来几年的中国出口，以及与其他亚洲经济体相比情况如何。

China's export mainly to the strong performance of China to other Asian economies to export.For example,Last year China in asean countries(ASEAN)Export growth of more than 20%,But to G - 3(The United States/The eurozone and Japan)Export since 2011 has been flat,See figure 1.The strong growth in export embodied in all aspects,Including mechanical/Delivery equipment and clothing shoes and other Chinese traditional export commodities.As we on January 5, published"Koreanexports - a sustained positive momentum since August 2012, disguised by weak HeadLine Numbers"The report stated,China's strong domestic demand growth in the developed economies is sluggish growth of Asian countries export main support factor,This reflects China's growing economy accounted for,And China's domestic demand is the importance of the global financial crisis before the outbreak of the improved.In this paper we further discussed in developed markets and economic growth in Asian economies, including China, explain Asian economies of the relative importance of the export performance.Our main problem is,Considering the short term developed economies slow recovery/Or have twists and turns,The Asian area trade and to what extent will help future years of China's exports,Compared with other Asian economies and how.