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中国对美国贸易顺差中的“水份”--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-01-22
如果把哪些国家提供部件和服务纳入中国的进出口中计算,那么中国对美国的贸易顺差将减少1/4。
If what countries to provide parts and services into China's import and export of calculation,So China's trade surplus with the United States will reduce 1/4.
这个结果是OECD旗下智库和WTO一个联合研究项目的关键性发现,呈现了在已经建立起全球供应链的今天,潜在的国际贸易活动更为真实的图景,因为在制造过程中,每一个中间部件都可能跨越数个国家。
The result is the OECD's think-tank and WTO a joint research project that key,Presented in has established a global supply chain today,Potential international trade activities more true picture,Because in the manufacturing process,Every intermediate components may across several countries.
这个研究发现具有重大的政治意义。通过证明提高进口壁垒其实是各国政府“搬起石头砸自己的脚”,能有效降低贸易保护主义的政治压力。因为各国政府如果这样做,它们也可能在损害自己的出口和竞争力。
The study found that is of great political significance.It is proved that improve the import barriers are governments"With his own petard",Can effectively reduce the trade protectionism political pressure.Because governments if doing so,They also may be in damage their exports and competitiveness.
据路透报道,OECD秘书长Angel Gurria表示,附加价值法挑战了关于国际贸易的传统认知。“今天,我们必须认识到,商品和服务都是‘世界制造’的。”
According to Reuters reported,OECD secretary-general Angel Gurria said,Additional value method challenge on the international trade of traditional cognition."today,We must recognize that,Goods and services are‘The world manufacturing’of."
这个研究发现很可能对人民币未来的汇率走势有着微妙的影响,因为美国政府经常用中美间的贸易顺差来施压人民币升值。
The findings are likely to RMB exchange rate trend in the future has a subtle influence,Because the United States government often use the u.s.-china trade surplus to put pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi.
Gurria表示:“(人民币兑美元的汇率)是不大重要的,不大相关的。”而WTO总干事Pascal Lamy则表示,新的研究数据显示,过分关注双边的贸易状况是“没啥意义的”。
Gurria said:"(The exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar)Is not important,Not related."And WTO director-general Pascal Lamy said,,New research data shows,Too much focus on bilateral trade status is"Do not have what meaning".
Lamy还表示,货币升值对一个出口国的影响,可以通过简单地计算损失竞争力的观念,在今天复杂的国际贸易关系中,是不正确的。“这些数据(损失的竞争力)的变化只是判断问题的其中一个材料,你还必须仔细分析这些数据被干扰的程度。这就使事情变得更加复杂了。”
Lamy says,Currency appreciation for a exporter influence,Can by simply counting loss competitive idea,In today's complex international trade relations,Is not correct."These data(Loss of competitiveness)Change just judge question one of the material,You must also carefully analyzing these data is the degree of interference.This will make things more complicated."
苹果的例子
Apple's example
中国出口的苹果手机就是一个最好的例子——阐明了按照哪些国家提供部件或服务计算,拆分各小部件的价值所在。
China's export iphone is one of the best examples, illustrates the according to which countries to provide components or service calculation,Split the value of small parts.
2010年,一台iPhone的出厂价为187.51美元,这个数据将全部反应在中国的总出口数据中。
In 2010,,One of the iPhone ex-factory price of $187.51,This data will be all reaction in China's total export data.
然而,实际上,根据iSuppli和Chipworks研究公司提供的数据估计,台湾是其中20.75美元的发源地;德国是16.08美元;韩国是80.05美元;美国是22.88美元;包括日本的其它国家是47.75美元。
however,In fact,According to iSuppli and Chipworks research company to provide the data estimation,Taiwan is one of the birthplace of $20.75;Germany is $16.08;South Korea is $80.05;The United States is $22.88;Other countries including Japan is $47.75.
而且,这还不是故事的全部。为了跟踪附加值的发源地,其实还需要整条供应链的信息和供应链的供应商的信息。
and,This is not the whole story.In order to track the birthplace of added value,Actually need the whole supply chain and supply chain information of the supplier's information.
通过把这些繁多的数据搜集组织起来,WTO和OECD第一次分析性地刺穿了附加值贸易的真相:2009年,美国对中国的贸易赤字将从官方数据显示的1760亿美元缩小1/4,至1310亿美元。
Through the range of data collection to organize,WTO and OECD first analytical pierced the added value to the truth of the trade:In 2009,,U.S. trade deficit with China from the official data showed that $176 billion reduce 1/4,To $131 billion.
这部分“流失”的贸易逆差实际上是美国对韩国、日本和其它亚洲国家的贸易逆差,因为主要由这些国家给中国提供组装产品的部件。
This part of the"loss"Trade deficit in the United States for South Korea/Japan and other Asian countries trade deficit,Because mainly from these countries to China provide assembly product components.
基于相同的原因,从附加值贸易的观点看,日本对中国和韩国的贸易顺差几乎会完全消失,因为日本对中韩出口的芯片和其它部件并没有在中韩形成最终消费。
Based on the same reason,From the point of view of value trade,Japan to China and South Korea's trade surplus will almost completely disappeared,Because Japan to China and South Korea export chips and other components and not in China and South Korea form final consumption.
WTO和OECD的研究发现了一些其它东西:
WTO and OECD study found that some other things:
美国替代德国成为法国的最大附加值贸易伙伴国,包括进口和出口;
The alternative Germany as France's biggest trading partners added value,Including import and export;
按照附加值贸易的观点,德国对美国的贸易逆差会马上转变成贸易顺差。因为德国向美国出口汽车的1/3附加值是通过第三国出口实现的;
According to the point of view of value trade,Germany to America's trade deficit would immediately into a trade surplus.Because the German exports to the us car a third added value is through third countries export implementation;
中国电子产品出口的40%附加值其实都是帮国外在出口。
China's electronic products export of 40% added value actually all is to help foreign in export.
因为中间部件(服务)占全球商品贸易的60%之多,OECD和WTO希望新的数据能缓解出口国和进口国之间的矛盾,降低贸易门槛。
Because the middle parts(service)Accounted for 60% of world merchandise trade of,OECD and WTO hope that the new data can alleviate the contradiction between the exporter and importer,Reduce barriers to trade.
OECD表示,简化海关和边境的行政流程就可以降低贸易成本10%。
OECD said,Simplify customs and border of the administrative process can reduce the trade cost 10%.
传统的贸易数据显示,服务贸易只占全球贸易的20%。但如果按照附加值贸易计算,OECD成员国的服务贸易占比约为50%,因为象软件和设计之类的服务越来越多被嵌入在工业品中。
The traditional trade data display,Service trade accounts for only 20% of world trade.But if, in accordance with the trade value calculation,OECD member countries of the trade in services than is about 50%,Because, like software and design and so on service more and more be embedded in the industrial products.
研究还显示,一个国家的消费水平和储蓄水平对该国的贸易状况仍然具有关键性的影响。
The study also shows that,A country's level of consumption and savings to the country's trade situation is still the crucial influence.
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