在危机反复震荡、经济缓慢复苏过程中，2012年中国对外经济贸易仍然取得了相对满意的成绩。2013年，随着外部环境的改善，我国外贸进出口增长有望呈现回升态势，低速增长仍是大趋势。

In the crisis repeated shocks/The slow economic recovery process,In 2012, the Chinese foreign economic and trade still got a relatively satisfactory results.In 2013,,With the improvement of the environment,Our country foreign trade import and export growth is expected to rebound present situation,Low speed growth is still the big trend.

　　2012

2012

　　蹒跚前行

Staggering forward

　　2012年，随着欧债危机的加深和蔓延，国际市场需求萎缩，国际商品市场价格疲软，国际贸易保护主义倾向严重，我国面临的外部形势极为严峻。在国家出台一系列以稳增长、调结构、促平衡为目的的政策支持下，中国对外贸易加快转型升级，结构进一步优化，创新能力增强。

In 2012,,With the deepening of European debt crisis and spread,The international market demand atrophy,International commodity market price weakness,International trade protectionism serious tendency towards,China faces the external situation is serious.In the country has issued a series of steady growth/Adjustable structure/For the purpose of promoting balanced policy support,China's foreign trade to speed up the transformation and upgrade,Structure was further optimized,Innovation ability enhancement.

　　2012年中国外贸发展呈现以下特点：

In 2012, the Chinese foreign trade development presents the following features:

　　我国对亚洲、非洲和拉美等地区进出口稳定增长，对欧洲出口下降。2012年1~10月，我国对亚洲、非洲、拉美、北美、大洋洲出口维持稳定低速增长，分别增长11%、20%、12.7%、9.6%和10.6%。由于欧债危机的拖累，我国对欧洲出口下降3.6%，对欧盟出口下降5.8%。2012年1~10月，我国从亚洲、非洲、欧洲、拉美、北美和大洋洲进口分别增长2.8%、24.6%、1.4%、9.3%、7.7%和3.9%。中日钓鱼岛问题争端影响了双边贸易往来，我国对日本出口仅增长4.1%，进口下降6.8%。而中东地区的政局动荡使我国对伊朗和叙利亚进出口分别下降19%和46.5%。近年来，我国加快了区域经济一体化的步伐，市场多元化战略取得成效，推动了我国同亚洲、非洲、拉美国家和地区经济合作，分散了出口市场过于集中的风险，提升了我国在国际上的影响力。

Our country in Asia/Africa and Latin America and other regions the stable growth of import and export,European exports to decline.January 2012 to October,Our country in Asia/Africa/Latin America/North America/Oceania export maintain stable low growth,Growth of 11%, respectively/20%/12.7%/9.6% and 10.6%.Due to the debt crisis of the drag,Our country to European exports fell by 3.6%,Exports to Europe fell by 5.8%.January 2012 to October,Our country from Asia/Africa/The European/Latin America/North America and Oceania import growth of 2.8%, respectively/24.6%/1.4%/9.3%/7.7% and 3.9%.The diaoyu island question dispute affect the bilateral trade,Our country to Japan rose by only 4.1%,Imports fell by 6.8%.And the Middle East in political unrest in Iran and Syria import and export were down by 19% and 46.5%.In recent years,Our country to speed up the pace of the regional economic integration,Market diversification strategy achievements have been made,Promote the our country with Asia/Africa/Latin American countries and regional economic cooperation,Disperse the export market is too centralized risk,Promote the China's international influence.

　　出口增速放缓，进入金融危机以来又一个低谷。从2012年2月起我国外贸月度出口持续低速增长，增长率为2009年出现负增长后最低水平。如果剔除通货膨胀和汇率升值，我国出口量几乎为负增长，外贸增长进入又一个低谷。国际金融危机的加深使得国际市场需求萎缩，市场供过于求，价格下跌，市场风险加大，国外订单量大批减少，能接到的大多是中短期订单。加工贸易出口占我国出口比重50%左右，在这次危机中受到的冲击最大，下降幅度最大。由于国内物价上涨，劳动力成本增加，国际运输价格提高，部分来料加工贸易转移到周边其他国家和地区。

Export growth is slowing,Since the financial crisis and into a bust.From February 2012 the our country foreign trade export monthly for low growth,Growth rate for 2009 years after has left the lowest level.If eliminate inflation and currency appreciation,China exports is almost negative growth,In foreign trade growth and a bust.The international financial crisis deepened the international market demand atrophy,A glut on the market,prices,Market risk increase,A large number of foreign orders to reduce,Can received are mostly short-term order.Processing trade exports of our country export proportion about 50%,In this crisis is the biggest impact,The greatest reduction.Because the domestic prices,Rising labor costs,International transport price increase,Part of the processing trade diversion to surrounding other countries and regions.

　　出口商品结构优化升级，优势品牌产品抗风险能力增强。2012年1~10月，我国初级产品出口减少0.4%，占比进一步下降。按SITC分类，食品及活动物、饮料及烟类、非食用原料、矿物燃料及动植物油和脂、蜡出口分别增长3.7%、12.6%、-5.1%、-5.2。其中，咖啡、茶、可可、调味品及蜂蜜、饮料、油籽含油果实等加工农产品出口有较大幅度增长，分别增长41.5%、18.7%、28.6%和27%。工业制成品出口中，化学品及有关产品、按原料分类的制成品、机械及运输设备和杂项制品分别增长-1.7%、5.2%、6.4%和16.9%。旅行用品、手提包及类似品、服装及衣着附件和鞋靴等我国传统优势产品出口仅增5.2%、2.5%和10.6%。

Export commodity structure optimization,Advantage brand product risk resistance capacity increase.January 2012 to October,Our country primary products export reduced by 0.4%,Accounted for more than a further decline.According to the classification of SITC,Food and live animals/Drink and smoke class/Non-food raw materials/Fossil fuels and animal and plant oil and grease/Wax export growth of 3.7%, respectively/12.6%/5.1% -/5.2.the,coffee/tea/cocoa/Condiment and honey/drinks/Oilseeds oil fruit processing agricultural products export have increase,Growth of 41.5%, respectively/18.7%/28.6% and 27%.Manufactured goods exports,Chemicals and related products/According to the raw material classification of manufactured goods/Machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous products were growth of 1.7%/5.2%/6.4% and 16.9%.Travel supplies/Handbag and similar products/Clothing and clothing accessories and shoes and boots and China's traditional advantage products export only increased by 5.2%/2.5% and 10.6%.

　　在我国外贸发展面临极为严峻的形势下，2012年3月国家推出了第一个外贸发展“十二五”规划，提出今后五年外贸发展的主要任务和保障措施，是我国外贸转型升级的有力支撑。随后国家还出台了一系列的鼓励性措施，为企业营造了较好的发展环境。

In China's foreign trade development is facing the severe situation,In march of 2012 countries launched the first foreign trade development"1025"planning,Puts forward five years in the development of foreign trade of main task and safeguard measures,Is our country foreign trade of the transformation and upgrade of strong support.Then country has issued a series of encouraging measures,For the enterprise to create a good development environment.

　　进口增速下降，结构优化。2012年1~10月，我国进口增速大幅放缓，增速比2011年下降20个百分点，进口增长乏力，月度增速呈下降趋势。2012年我国初级产品进口增长6.8%。按SITC分类，食品及活动物、饮料及烟类、非食用原料、矿物燃料和润滑油及有关原料、动植物油和脂等分别增长29.2%、22.9%、-4.1%、15.4%和12%。其中，活动物、肉及肉制品、乳品及蛋品、谷物及其制品、糖汁制品及蜂蜜、饮料、煤、焦炭及煤砖和天然气及人造气进口分别增长41.1%、26.5%、26%、159.9%、59%、48%、26%、29.5%和59%。工业制成品进口增长3.4%。按SITC分类，化学成品及有关产品、按原料分类的制成品、机械及运输设备和杂项制品进口分别增长-0.9%、-1.4%、2.8%和6.2%。其中，医药品、制成肥料、电信及声音录制及重放置设备、其他运输设备、旅行用品和手提包及类似品、服装及衣着附件和鞋靴进口分别增长26.4%、32.7%、18.4%、17.1%、15.3%、13.9%和18.5%。

Imports down,Structure optimization.January 2012 to October,Our country import growth slowed sharply,Growth dropped by 20% compared with 2011,Weak import growth,Monthly growth trend of decline.In 2012, primary products imports rose 6.8%.According to the classification of SITC,Food and live animals/Drink and smoke class/Non-food raw materials/Fossil fuel and lubricating oil and related raw materials/Animal and plant oil and grease and growth of 29.2%, respectively/22.9%/4.1% -/15.4% and 12%.the,Activity content/Meat and meat products/Dairy and egg/Grain and its products/Juice products and honey/drinks/coal/Coke and coal briquette and gas and synthetic gas import growth of 41.1%, respectively/26.5%/26%/159.9%/59%/48%/26%/29.5% and 59%.Manufactured goods imports rose 3.4%.According to the classification of SITC,Chemical products and related products/According to the raw material classification of manufactured goods/Machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous products import growth - 0.9% respectively/1.4% -/2.8% and 6.2%.the,pharmaceuticals/Fertilizer made/Telecom and voice recording and heavy placement equipment/Other transport equipment/Travel supplies and handbag and similar products/Clothing and clothing accessories and shoe import growth of 26.4%, respectively/32.7%/18.4%/17.1%/15.3%/13.9% and 18.5%.

　　近年来，根据外贸发展目标，国家出台了一系列鼓励进口和进口便利化措施，进口促进体系逐步完善，推动进口快速增长。为了进一步完善对进口的管理，2012年国务院公布了加强进口促进对外贸易平衡发展的指导意见，明确提出外贸发展的主要任务是进一步优化进口商品结构，稳定和引导大宗商品进口，积极扩大先进技术设备、关键零部件和能源原材料的进口，适度扩大消费品进口。在宏观政策调控下，2012年虽然国内经济增长速度放缓，市场需求萎缩，进口增长速度放缓，进口结构优化，先进技术和设备、能源、食品及日用消费品进口增长较快，满足了国内经济发展和人民日益增长的物质需求，提升了国民的福利水平。

In recent years,According to the foreign trade development goals,The country has issued a series of encouraging imports and the import convenience measures,Import promote system has been improved gradually,Promote the rapid growth of import.In order to further improve the management of import,In 2012, the state council announced the strengthens the import to promote foreign trade balance development direction,Foreign trade development put forward the main task is to optimize the structure of imported goods,Stability and guide the commodity import,Extend the advanced technology and equipment/Key components and energy raw materials import,Enlarging the consumer goods import.In the macroeconomic policy,In 2012, although the domestic economic growth speed slow,Market demand atrophy,Import growth slowdown,Import structure optimization,Advanced technology and equipment/energy/Food and consumer goods import is growing rapidly,Meet the national economic development and the increasing of people's material demand,Improve the national welfare level.

　　国有企业出口增长乏力，外商投资企业稳定增长，民营企业表现活跃。2012年1~10月，受国际金融危机影响，各类企业进出口业绩表现不同。国有企业、外商投资企业和民营企业出口分别增长-3.5%、3%和20.4%，进口分别增长1.3%、1.4%和16.2%。外商投资企业优化结构，转型升级，进行新产品、新技术研发，发展新兴战略产业和绿色产业，在产业转型升级中发挥重要作用。一大批中小民营企业因经营管理不善纷纷倒闭，而得益于国家的大力支持，一批创新意识强的企业迅速成长，如北京梅可达电子影像有限公司等企业由于注重产品研发和设计及品牌培育，推出许多新产品、新技术、新品牌，出口产品在国外市场热销，成为经济危机下外贸发展的亮点。

The state-owned enterprise export growth lack of power,The stable growth of enterprises with foreign investment,The private enterprise is active.January 2012 to October,By the international financial crisis,Import and export of all kinds enterprise performance is different.State-owned enterprise/Foreign investment enterprises and private enterprises to export growth of 3.5%, respectively/3% and 20.4%,Import growth of 1.3%, respectively/1.4% and 16.2%.Enterprises with foreign investment structure optimization,Transformation and upgrading of,New product/New technology research and development,The development of emerging strategic industries and the green industry,In the transformation and upgrading of industry plays an important role.A large number of small and medium-sized private enterprises began to go out of business because of poor management,And benefited from the country's strong support,A group of innovative consciousness strong enterprise growth,Such as Beijing mei accessible electronic image co., LTD., and other enterprises due to pay attention to product development and design and the brand cultivation,Introduced many new products/New technology/Brand new,Export products in foreign markets sell like hot cakes,As the economic crisis under the window of foreign trade development.

　　2012年4月，国家出台了关于进一步支持小型微型企业健康发展的意见，提出要进一步加大对小型微型企业的财税支持力度，努力缓解小型微型企业融资困难。9月，国务院通过《关于促进外贸稳定增长的若干意见》，确定了八项政策措施。国家的支持对处于困境中的外贸企业是强心剂，增强了企业的信心，进一步改善了企业的经营环境。

In April 2012,The country has issued a on further support the healthy development of small miniature enterprise opinion,Offered to further strengthen the small miniature enterprise finance support,Strive to reduce small miniature enterprise financing difficulties.September,The state council through the[On promoting the steady growth of foreign trade some opinions],Determine the eight policy measures.The support of the country to foreign trade enterprises in difficulty is cardiac,To enhance the enterprise's confidence,Further improve the enterprise management environment.

　　我国面临的外部环境恶化，贸易摩擦不断升级。随着欧债危机的蔓延和加深，全球贸易保护主义日益严重，2012年中国出口产品频频遭受国际贸易摩擦，受损程度空前。涉案产品不仅涵盖陶瓷、自行车等传统优势产品，光伏产品等新能源产品也深受其害。贸易摩擦方式不断升级，从反倾销上升为反补贴，到贸易限制和质量标准；涉案国和地区有美国、欧盟、澳大利亚、阿根廷、巴西和印度等国，一些新兴经济体国家也跟风打压中国产品，保护本国利益。尤其是欧美为了转嫁国内危机，加大了贸易保护力度，频频对中国发起贸易救济调查，并征收高额反倾销税。国际贸易摩擦给一些出口企业造成较大损失，有的企业为应对贸易摩擦付出了很大的代价，有的企业低价出售，血本无归，还有的企业被迫退出市场，关闭或减少产能，损失惨重。究其原因有外部的，更主要的是内部的宏观管理问题。近几年经济转型升级，许多企业跟风上马效益好的产能，由于国内需求不足，大批过剩产能涌入国际市场，国际市场需求的萎缩使得企业间不得不低价竞争，追求数量扩张。

China faces the external environmental deterioration,Trade friction constantly upgrade.With the debt crisis spread and deepen,Global trade protectionism is becoming more and more serious,In 2012, the Chinese export products frequently suffer from international trade friction,Unprecedented damage.Products involved not only covers the ceramic/The traditional advantage of cycling products,Photovoltaic products and other new energy products also suffer.Trade friction mode constantly upgrade,From the anti-dumping countervailing rise to,To trade restrictions and quality standard;Involved in countries and areas of the United States/The European Union/Australia/Argentina/Brazil and India and other countries,Some emerging economies also follow suit suppressing Chinese products,Protect its interests.Especially in Europe and the United States in order to pass on the domestic crisis,Increased trade protection efforts,Again and again to China has launched trade remedy investigation,And collect high anti-dumping duties.International trade friction to some of the export enterprise cause bigger loss,Some enterprises to cope with trade friction paid a high price,Some enterprise sell at a low price,Lose everything,And enterprise was forced to withdraw from the market,Closed or reduce capacity,disastrous.Investigate its reason is outside,More important is the internal macro management.In recent years the economic transformation and upgrade,Many enterprises follow suit the benefit good capacity,Due to the insufficient domestic demand,A large number of surplus capacity into the international market,The international market demand atrophy made between enterprises have to low price competition,Pursuit of quantity expansion.

　　2013

2013

　　或呈回升态势

Or show picks up trend

　　2013年我国外部环境将有所改善，但不确定因素还很多。2012年12月中央经济工作会议提出，要保持宏观经济政策的连续性和稳定性，继续实施积极财政政策和稳健的货币政策。根据中央会议精神，我国加快转变外贸增长方式，实现质量和效益的增长，积极扩大进口，实现内外经济的均衡增长。2013年影响我国外贸发展的外部因素有以下几方面：

In 2013, the external environment will be improved,But also a lot of uncertainty.In December 2012 the central economic working conference put forward,To maintain macroeconomic policy continuity and stability,Continue to implement the positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.According to the spirit of the meeting,To speed up the transformation of the growth mode of foreign trade in our country,To realize the growth of the quality and efficiency,Actively expand import,Achieve internal and external economic equilibrium growth.2013 effect on our country's foreign trade development of the external factors have the following several aspects:

　　受欧债危机的拖累，欧盟市场前景不甚乐观。近几年受欧债危机影响，欧盟市场需求萎缩，我国对欧盟出口增长放缓，欧盟占我国出口的比重逐渐下降。2012年前11个月，我国对欧盟出口下降7%，对我国欧盟内的重要贸易伙伴法国和德国分别下降10%。根据欧盟委员观点，由于欧债危机恶化，预计2013年欧盟经济将继续低迷，失业率高企。在经济危机的情况下，欧盟各国将继续推行财政紧缩和贸易保护的措施，以保护区内经济。预计2013年我国对欧盟的出口将继续走低，可能仍然是负增长，双边贸易摩擦大战在所难免。

By the debt crisis of the drag,The European Union market prospect is not very optimistic.In recent years by the debt crisis,The European Union market demand atrophy,Our country to the European Union export growth slowed,The European Union accounted for the proportion of our export gradually decreases.2012 years ago 11 months,China exports to Europe fell by 7%,To our country in the European Union an important trade partner of France and Germany were down by 10%.According to the European commission point of view,Due to the debt crisis worse,In 2013 the European Union is expected to economic downturn will continue,High unemployment rate.In the economic crisis in the circumstances,The European Union countries will continue to implement the financial crunch and trade protection measures,In order to protect the economy.It is estimated that our export to the eu will continue to decline,May is still negative growth,Bilateral trade friction war unavoidable.

　　美国经济缓慢复苏，市场需求稳定增长。近几年受国际金融危机的影响，我国对美国出口占我国出口总额比重逐渐下降，贸易顺差不断扩大。美国财政悬崖问题的解决使美国暂时避免了经济衰退，有利于中美双边贸易的顺利发展。美国有关经济学家预计2013年美国经济将继续缓慢复苏，房地产市场的升温和产业回流的现象将有利于美国工业增长，失业率下降，消费和工业品市场需求稳定增长。2012年1~11月，中国对美国出口增长8.2%，预计2013年中美贸易将继续呈现稳步增长的态势。但美国政府继续推行量化宽松的货币政策和财政政策，带来巨额财政赤字和贸易逆差，将导致美元汇率继续走低，国际投机资本涌动，国际初级产品市场价格跌宕起伏，增加人民币升值的压力，并有可能继续引起输入型通货膨胀。

The United States the slow economic recovery,The market demand stable growth.In recent years by the influence of the international financial crisis,China exports to the United States in China accounted for the proportion of total exports decline gradually,With expanded trade surplus.The United States financial cliff to the solution of the problem that the United States avoid a recession,Conducive to the smooth development of bilateral trade between China and the United States.The United States is expected to the economist in 2013 the United States economy will continue to slow recovery,The real estate market of warming and industry backflow phenomenon will benefit the industry growth,Unemployment rate,Consumer and industrial market demand stable growth.2012 1 ~ 11 months,China's exports to the United States grew by 8.2%,In 2013 is expected to sino-us trade will continue to present steady growth trend.But the United States the government continued to implement quantitative easing monetary policy and fiscal policy,Bring a huge budget deficit and trade deficit,Will lead to the dollar continues to fall,The surge of speculative capital,International primary products market price ups and downs,Increase the pressure of RMB appreciation,And may continue to cause imported inflation.

　　发展中国家将成为世界经济发展的亮点，是我国出口市场的潜力股。发展中国家是我国市场多元化战略的重要对象，近几年占我国出口市场的比重不断上升，占比已经达到三分之一强。2012年受欧洲债务危机恶化等因素影响，国际初级产品价格跌宕起伏、流入发展中国家外资下降，发展中国家汇率大幅度波动，出口下降，经济增长减速。实际上，受经济结构因素的影响，发展中国家经济发展也出现分化，有的国家经济增长减速，如巴西和印度等国，有的国家则维持了经济增长势头。2012年1~11月，我国对东盟出口增长19.3%，其中对印尼和马来西亚出口分别增长16.2%和29%，对俄罗斯出口增长13%。根据联合国的预测，2012年发展中国家经济增长整体大概是4.7%，2013年可能会上升到5.1%。如果发展中国家经济稳步复苏，预计2013年我国对发展中国家进出口将稳定增长，同新兴经济体国家一道引领世界经济的回升。

Developing countries will be the highlight of the world economic development,Is our country exports the potential of the market share.Developing countries is our country market diversification strategy important object,In recent years our country export market accounted for the proportion of rising,Accounts for more than a third than has been achieved.In 2012 by the European debt crisis on the impact of factors such as deterioration,International primary product price ups and downs/Foreign capital flows to developing countries is down,Developing countries exchange rate fluctuation significantly,Decline in exports,Economic growth slowdown.In fact,By the influence of the economic structure,Developing countries economic development also appear differentiation,Some countries economic growth slowdown,Such as Brazil and India and other countries,Some countries are to maintain the economic growth.2012 1 ~ 11 months,Our country to asean export growth of 19.3%,Among the Indonesia and Malaysia export up by 16.2% and 29% respectively,Export to Russia increased by 13%.According to the prediction of the United Nations,2012 developing countries overall economic growth is about 4.7%,2013 could rise to 5.1%.If developing countries steady economic recovery,It is estimated that our import and export to the developing countries will be steady growth,With the emerging economies countries lead the world economic recovery.

　　根据上述因素分析，2013年，随着外部环境的改善，我国外贸进出口增长有可能出现回升态势，仍然是低速增长。政府将加快转变职能，进一步完善“稳增长、调结构、促平衡”政策，加强对外贸企业转型升级的行业指导，更多发挥市场的调节作用；落实好相关政策，加大对中小企业的支持力度；商协会应加强对进出口市场的协调管理，搞好市场经营秩序；引导企业加强社会责任，处理好企业发展和劳动者工资增长及环境保护的关系，为建立和谐发展社会贡献力量。

According to the above factors, the analysis,In 2013,,With the improvement of the environment,Our country foreign trade import and export growth likely picks up trend,Is still low growth.The government will speed up the transformation function,Further perfect"Steady growth/Adjustable structure/Promote balance"policy,To strengthen the foreign trade enterprise of the transformation and upgrade of industry guidance,More play the market mechanism;Implement relevant policies,Increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises;Association should be to strengthen the coordination of import and export market management,Do a good job in the market operation order;Guide enterprises to strengthen social responsibility,Deal with enterprise development and the laborer salary growth and the relationship between the environmental protection,In building up a harmonious development of social contribution strength.

　　（作者系商务部研究院副研究员）

(The author is the ministry of commerce research associate researcher)