中国商品出口正在发生重大阶段性变化，相当一部分产品正在告别廉价出口时代。这是经济发展方式转变的一个重要方面，也正在导致近期的若干痛苦。

China's merchandise exports is undergoing major phase change,Quite a number of products are farewell cheap export era.This is the change in the pattern of economic development an important aspect,Is also lead to recent some pain.

　　中国商品出口改革开放以来呈非常明显的加速趋势。上个世纪八十年代中期，我在绍兴调查乡镇企业，出口创汇是一个令人觉得有点高不可攀的词汇。中国商品出口能取得今天这样占世界11%多、列世界第2的成就，非常来之不易。

China commodity export since the reform and opening up is very obvious accelerated trend.In the late eighty s,I am in shaoxing survey township and village enterprises,Export is a really feel a bit too high to reach vocabulary.China's merchandise exports can make this more than 11% of the world/List the achievements of the world no. 2,Very hard-won.

　　就境内而言，随着民营企业全面替代国有和集体企业，产品质量和生产效率全面快速提高；而就境外而言，劳动工资是内地的十余倍，劳动密集型产品生产成本明显较高。改革开放后，国内企业依托体制机制活力，积极发挥低成本劳动力优势，加之土地及其他要素成本较低等因素，中国商品出口像决堤的洪水一样，一泻千里，势不可挡。

Just for domestic,As private enterprises fully replace the state-owned and collective enterprise,The quality of our products and production efficiency comprehensive rapid increase;And in abroad,Labor salary is more than ten times in the mainland,Labor-intensive products production cost substantially higher.After reform and opening up,Domestic enterprises relying on the system mechanism vitality,To give full play to advantages of low cost labor,Together with land and other elements cost lower factors,China's merchandise exports like a flood that has burst the dam,Bold and flowing,unstoppable.

　　在这个过程中，企业大量引进境外先进实用技术，积极变革流通体制，不断深化社会分工和延伸产业链，形成了持续的商品出口收益递增趋势。因此即使国内竞争剧烈，相互竞相压价，企业出口利润还是能有长期较快增长。多年前在一次座谈会上，一位专业生产圣诞蜡烛的老总说，他们的产品在美国的到岸价，即使加上高达200%多的惩罚性关税，还是要低于美国企业的出厂价，所以根本不怕所谓的贸易保护主义。

In this process,Enterprise a large number of introducing foreign advanced practical technologies,The positive circulation system reform,Deepening division of labor in society and extension industry chain,Formed continuous commodity export income increasing trend.So even if domestic competition intense,Mutual undercut each other's prices,Enterprises to export profit or to have long-term fast growth.Years ago in a symposium,A professional production of Christmas candle manager said,Their products in the United States on a C.I.F. basis,Even if add up to more than 200% of punitive tariffs,Or is lower than the United States enterprise ex-factory price,So there are not afraid of the so-called trade protectionism.

　　我最近利用中国统计年鉴，进行简单的出口商品价格分析，得出1999至2004年，中国出口商品实际价格大致呈整体下降态势的结论。1999至2004年，在可分析的31种出口工业品中，平均单价下降的有13种，另有9种商品的出口单价上涨幅度，年均不高于4%。按算术平均计算，这31种商品2004年平均出口单价仅比1999年上升2.9%，而此期间浙江生产者购进价格指数上升19.6%，国内居民消费价格指数上升5.5%。由此可以认为，相对于国内整体的价格上涨，此期间中国出口商品实际平均单价是下降的。

I recently using China statistical yearbook,For simple export commodity price analysis,That 1999 to 2004,Chinese export commodities actual price is roughly the overall decline situation conclusion.From 1999 to 2004,In the analysis of 31 species of export industrial products,Average unit price down there are 13 kinds of,Another 9 kinds of goods export price rises,Annual average no more than 4%.According to the arithmetic average calculation,This 31 goods 2004 average export price only up 2.9% over 1999,And this period zhejiang producers purchase price index rose 19.6%,Domestic consumer price index rose by 5.5%.We can think,Relative to the overall domestic prices,This time China export commodity actual average unit price is falling.

　　当前中国出口商品价格下降格局已经终结，且出现了价格全面上涨态势。这是在人民币汇率上升，国内劳动工资加快增长，企业对于生态环境保护的支出增加等情况下，必然会形成的提价趋势。在我分析的31种出口工业品中，2011年与2004年相比，出口平均单价上涨的有30种，只有1种商品的平均出口单价下降。按算术平均计算，2004至2011年，这31种出口商品平均单价，涨幅高达1.7倍。

The current Chinese export commodities prices fell pattern has already end,And the price rise in full.This is in the RMB exchange rate rise,Domestic labor wage to speed up the growth,Enterprise for ecological environment protection spending increase under such circumstances,Will form the price trend.In my analysis of 31 species of export industrial products,In 2011 compared with 2004,Export average unit price rising has 30 kinds of,Only one kind of commodity export average unit price decline.According to the arithmetic average calculation,From 2004 to 2011,This 31 kinds of export commodities average unit price,Rise up to 1.7 times.

　　中国商品出口增速明显回落，一方面是由于欧美日本等经济不景气，另一方面则是中国出口商品涨价导致的。而事实上由于中国出口商品价格长期较低，引发了欧美以及日本的一场“消费泡沫”，因此当价格回升以后，泡沫终将逐渐消去。所以就这一点而言，当前外需不足，部分是“去泡沫化”导致的，而这一因素显然具有长期趋势特征，国内出口企业必须做好全面的积极应对。

China commodity export growth fell significantly,On the one hand, the Europe and the United States such as Japan economic downturn,On the other hand is to Chinese export commodities prices.And in fact because of China's export commodity prices low for a long time,In Europe, America and Japan sparked a"Consumption foam",So when the price picks up later,Foam will gradually elimination.So in this regard,The current lack of overseas market demand,Part is"To frothy"in,And this one factor obviously has the long-term trend features,Domestic export enterprises must make full actively respond to.