2012年的中国外贸还算是“有惊无险”——“保十”目标虽未完成，但在全球主要经济体中，中国外贸的表现依然算是最好的。数据显示，2012年我国外贸进出口总值38667.6亿美元，比上年增长6.2%。 

2012 years of China's foreign trade is"adventure"--"The ten"Target is not complete,But in one of the world's major economies,The performance of China's foreign trade is still the best.Data display,In 2012, foreign trade import and export (GDP) of us $3.86676 trillion,A 6.2% increase from the previous year. 

　　尽管6.2%的全年增速并不出人意料，但12月份外贸进出口总值3668.4亿美元、同比增长10.2%的数据，则着实让很多人大呼意外。有人表示认可，也有人产生质疑，面对外贸数据的波动，我们究竟该怎么看？ 

Although 6.2% of annual growth is not surprising,But in December foreign trade import and export (GDP) of us $366.84 billion/Year-on-year growth of 10.2% of the data,It really made a lot of people call accident.Someone said recognition,Some have questioned,In the face of foreign trade data fluctuation,What's the watch? 

　　“我觉得和实际情况差不多。去年上半年我们业务也不好，眼睁睁地看着订单从10箱缩减到了两三箱，心里那个急啊！但下半年特别是年底这段时间，情况还是不错的。”在义乌小商品城做拉链生意的商户吴国军对此深有体会。但并不是所有的外贸企业都像吴国军那么幸运。江苏建湖的一家灯具贴牌企业负责人向记者抱怨，从前年开始企业订单就开始下滑，去年迫不得已还停了两条生产线，给工人放了长假，“这样撑下去肯定吃不消！” 

"I think and actual situation almost.In the first half of last year our business well,Watched helplessly as the order from 10 box to at two or three box,The heart that nasty!But the second half of the end of the year, especially this time,Is good."In yiwu commodity city do zipper business WuGuoJun merchants have a deep impression on.But not all foreign trade enterprise are like WuGuoJun so lucky.Jiangsu JianHu lamps and lanterns of a OEM complained to the journalists about the responsible person of the enterprise,Begin from the year before last year enterprise order began to decline,Last year had also stopped two production lines,Give workers put the long vacation,"So hang in there must be unable to stand!" 

　　外贸行业向来是几家欢喜几家愁，但在整个国际环境比较严峻的情况下，人们自然会对外贸数据的波动变得格外敏感。  

Foreign trade industry is always a few glad several sorrow,But in the international environment is more severe cases,People will naturally on foreign trade data fluctuation becomes all the more sensitive.  

　　对于去年12月份外贸数据“人为拔高”的质疑，商务部新闻发言人沈丹阳表示，相邻两个月之内出现超过10个百分点以上的明显波动，12月份之前也曾出现过两次：一次是1月份出口下降了0.6%，但2月份增长了18.3%，增长了近19个百分点；一次是4月份出口增长4.8%，而5月份则增长15.3%。“第四季度，享受免收法定检验检疫费政策将在2013年停止执行，很多外贸企业为了充分利用这个优惠措施，加快了出口进度。不能因为数据突增这一个波动，就武断地认为这里面有数据造假的现象。” 

In December last year for foreign trade data"High human"questions,The ministry of commerce spokesman ShenDanYang said,Adjacent two month appear more than 10% of the obvious fluctuation,Before December appeared twice:One January exports fell 0.6%,But increased 18.3% in February,Rose by nearly 19%;One is in April export growth of 4.8%,And the increase of 15.3% in May."The fourth quarter,Enjoy free legal inspection quarantine fee policy will be suspended in 2013,A lot of foreign trade enterprise in order to make full use of the preferential measures,To speed up the progress of the export.Not because the data spurt that a wave,Just arbitrarily think there is the phenomenon of false data." 

　　中国外贸需要增长，更需要有质量的增长。从某种意义上讲，外贸增速的放缓并非全是坏事。外需不振、成本上升、贸易环境不佳这些影响我国外贸发展的“三大阻力”依然存在，但一些积极、有利的因素也在增多，特别是去年以来，我国外贸在提升质量、提高效益、优化结构等方面取得了明显进展。 

China's foreign trade growth needs,Needs to have the quality of growth.In a sense,Foreign trade growth slowdown is not all bad.Overseas market demand of/Rising costs/Trade environment is not good these effects the development of foreign trade of our country"Three big resistance"remains,But some positive/Favorable factors are also increasing,Especially since last year,Our country foreign trade in improve quality/Improve efficiency/Optimize structure made obvious progress. 

　　从增长6.2%的背后，我们看到了贸易伙伴更趋多元化，看到了贸易区域布局更加平衡，看到了出口商品结构的继续升级优化。东盟及新兴市场国家正成为我国外贸的新增长点，中西部地区出口增速强劲，成为我国外贸发展新亮点；机电产品等高附加值商品份额不断增大，传统劳动密集型产品在转型升级中依然保持住了市场优势。 

Growth of 6.2% from behind,We see the trading partner more hasten is diversified,See the trade area layout more balance,See the export commodity structure to optimize upgrade.Asean and emerging market countries is becoming a new growth point of China's foreign trade,The Midwest strong export growth,Become China's foreign trade development new luminescent spot;Mechanical and electrical products high value-added goods share increasing,The traditional labor-intensive products in the transformation and upgrading of still hold the market advantage. 

　　商务部研究院外贸研究所所长李健认为，“2013年外贸形势会略好于2012年。鉴于全球经济缓慢增长这样一个态势，外贸应该还是个位数的增长。”在李健看来，数据好看与否并不是我们最终想要的结果，我们更需要透过数据，看到需求是怎么变的、市场潜力在哪里、未来的发展趋势又是什么。

The ministry of commerce research institute foreign trade institute director li think,"In 2013, foreign trade situation will be slightly better than 2012 years.In view of the global economic slow growth of such a situation,The growth of foreign trade should be or singly."In li seems to,Data good-looking or not is not we ultimately want results,We need more through the data,See demand is how to change/Market potential in where/What is the trend of the development of future.

　　顾阳

GuYang