于2001年开始的世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判包含了农业、制造业和服务业三大部分，如今仍陷僵局，促使美国寻求其他的谈判方案。近日，美国高调宣布，计划与欧盟、日本以及其他18个经济体展开谈判，就清除从金融到速递等服务业领域贸易和投资壁垒达成协议。但是，中国、印度、巴西和俄罗斯等大的新兴经济体试图避免谈判。这些国家认为，服务谈判应该成为农业和制造业贸易壁垒谈判大框架下的一部分。博弈，仍在继续……

Beginning in 2001 world trade organization doha round contains agriculture/The three most manufacturing and services,Now is still in the deadlock,The United States to seek other negotiation scheme.recently,The United States announced sharp,Plan and the European Union/Japan and other economy and negotiations,Is clear from the financial service industries to express field trade and investment barriers to reach an agreement.but,China/India/Brazil and Russia and other big emerging economies tried to avoid negotiations.These countries think,Services negotiations should be agricultural and manufacturing barriers to trade negotiations under the framework of big part.game,Continues...

　　近日，美国贸易代表柯克就美国启动国际服务贸易谈判事宜致函国会称，该谈判旨在消除从金融到速递等服务业领域贸易和投资壁垒，预计将在未来3个月内展开，从而促进国际服务贸易发展，增加美国服务业的出口和就业。

recently,The United States trade representative kirk is the United States start international service trade negotiation matters write to congress says,The negotiations are intended to eliminate from the financial service industries to express field barriers to trade and investment,In the future is expected to start in three months,So as to promote the development of international service trade,Increase the export and employment services.

　　2012年，美国曾对国内服务贸易产业情况作出调查。彼得森国际经济研究所的一份研究结果显示，即使美国已经成为世界上最大的服务贸易供应方，但是实际上，该国潜在的服务贸易出口额将是货物贸易的5倍，也就是说，美国服务贸易出口存量十分巨大，还有待发掘利用。

In 2012,,The United States had to domestic trade in service industry to make investigation.The peterson institute for international economics a study shows,Even though the United States has become the world's largest trade in service supplier,But in fact,The country's potential service trade export trade in goods will be five times,that,The service trade export stock is very great,It remains to be utilize.

　　该研究报告还预测，国际服务贸易谈判达成后，美国和欧盟的出口增幅将会最大，分别增长140亿美元和210亿美元左右，如果巴西、中国和印度加入谈判，欧美服务贸易增长幅度将达30%。

The study also predict,International service trade after negotiations,The United States and the European Union's export growth will be the biggest,Increase about $14 billion and $21 billion,If Brazil/China and India to join negotiations,Europe and the United States service trade growth rate will reach 30%.

　　美国倡议重启谈判

The initiative to restart negotiations

　　据悉，即将开启的国际服务贸易谈判选定在瑞士日内瓦举行，预计有20个贸易伙伴加入谈判当中，其中包括欧盟、澳大利亚、加拿大、智利、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、冰岛、以色列、日本、韩国、墨西哥、新西兰、挪威、巴基斯坦、巴拿马、秘鲁、瑞士、土耳其和中国台湾、香港地区。

It is reported,The open international service trade negotiations selected in Geneva, Switzerland,An estimated twenty trade partners to join of negotiations,Including the European Union/Australia/Canada/Chile/Columbia/Costa rica/Iceland/Israel/Japan/South Korea/Mexico/New Zealand/Norway/Pakistan/panama/Peru/Switzerland/Turkey and China Taiwan/Hong Kong.

　　粗略估算，上述经济体服务贸易总额占全球服务贸易总额的2/3。美国、欧盟以及其他一些谈判参与方已经就国际服务协议谈判内容考虑了近一年时间，并于2012年末制定出了大体框架。

Rough estimation,The economy service trade accounted for about two-thirds of the total global trade in services.The United States/The European Union and some other negotiations party has been the international service agreement negotiation content consider nearly a year,And in the end of 2012 made a general framework.

　　2011年，美国的服务贸易顺差为1785亿美元。柯克表示，美国服务业每出口10亿美元，就能为美国提供大约4200个就业岗位，如果服务业能获得像全球制成品那样的出口潜力，那么美国出口可增加8000亿美元。此外，服务业从业人员占美国就业人数的80%左右。

In 2011,,The service trade surplus for 178.5 billion dollars.Kirk said,The United States export services each $1 billion,The United States can provide about 4200 jobs,If the service can obtain such as global manufactured goods export potential,So the United States export can increase the $800 billion.In addition,Service employees accounted for about 80% of the number of American jobs.

　　美国已经成为世界最大的服务贸易出口国，每年出口规模达1.7万亿美元，占GDP的11%。即便这样，联邦快递国际业务总裁迈克·道克仍表示：“国际服务市场仍然受到严重限制，美国服务提供商在海外市场业务开展面临重重壁垒。”

The United States has become the world's largest exporter of service trade,Export scale every year to $1.7 trillion,11% of GDP.Even if such,Fedex international business President Michael way g still said:"International service market is still serious restriction,The service provider in the overseas market business development face many barriers."

　　“一直以来，世界贸易组织(WTO)都积极倡导各国加入国际服务贸易谈判，但实际上，都是一些如美国、欧盟等服务贸易产业发展比较好的国家或地区在积极响应，发展中国家参与的热情并不高，导致谈判一度搁置。近年来，由于全球经济陷入低谷，美国想通过‘再工业化’来实现产品出口倍增、就业增加等目标，仅仅依靠货物出口实现这一目标的可能性不大。而服务贸易一直都是美国的强项，每年都出现较大的贸易顺差，但是增长趋势有所减缓，因此，在这一背景下，美国极力推动重启服务贸易谈判，主要的谈判对象都是那些此前提出过谈判要价的贸易伙伴，也往往就是服务贸易产业发展水平较高的国家或地区。”中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际贸易研究室研究员倪月菊说。

"Has been,The world trade organization(wto)All countries are actively advocate to join international service trade negotiations,But in fact,Are such as the United States/The European Union and other services trade industry development better countries or regions in the positive response,Developing countries participate in enthusiasm is not high,Lead to negotiations were suspended.In recent years,Due to the global economy bottomed,The United States wants to‘To industrialization’To realize the products are exported to multiplication/An increase in employment and target,Just rely on exports achieve this goal is unlikely.And service trade has been America's strengths,Each year, appear larger trade surplus,But growth is slow,so,In this background,The United States is also pushing restart service trade negotiations,The main negotiations object are those previously proposed negotiation price trading partners,Also often is the trade in service industry development level higher countries or regions."The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at the international trade for the NiYueJu said.

　　虽然国际服务贸易谈判也是在WTO框架下进行，但是倪月菊提醒，此次谈判有一点却是例外，“WTO体制有最惠国待遇，它确认的是一种无条件的最惠国待遇，即确保WTO的一方成员给另一方成员的任何贸易优惠都立即无条件地提供给所有其他成员，从而使最惠国待遇多边化；WTO的所有成员在国际贸易的各个方面享有的是同等的待遇，确保了所有成员在同一水平上进行公平的贸易竞争。而此次国际服务贸易谈判成果仅由参与谈判国享有，不涉及其他WTO成员国。”

Although the international service trade negotiation is in the wto framework for,But NiYueJu remind,The talks a little was an exception,"wto system have the most-favoured-nation treatment,It confirmed is a kind of unconditional most-favoured-nation treatment,Which is to ensure that wto members of one party to the other party members of any trade preference are immediately and unconditionally to provide to all other members,So that the most-favoured-nation treatment polygonization;All the members of the wto in all aspects of international trade enjoy the same treatment is,Ensure that all members at the same level for fair trade competition.The international service trade negotiation results by only participate in negotiations countries enjoy,Don't involve other wto members."

　　谈判变数大

Negotiation variables big

　　国际服务贸易谈判进展至今，美国越来越多地担当起发起者的角色，而其谈判的目的也更加清晰，即希望谈判方取消限制、扭曲和影响国际服务贸易的各种壁垒，达成积极、高标准的国际服务贸易协议，促进美国经济增长，增加就业。

International service trade negotiations so far,The United States increasingly take on the role of the sponsors,The purpose of the negotiations is more clear,Is hope negotiating party cancel the limit/Distortion and influence of all kinds of barriers in international trade in services,Achieve positive/High standards of international service trade agreement,To promote the economic growth,Increase employment.

　　倪月菊预测，国际服务贸易谈判的主要议题将集中在金融、物流、知识产权和专利技术方面，而对于谈判前景她却不甚看好，“一项国际谈判涉及面很多，尽管参与经济体已经在一定程度上达成了共识，但是在具体细节方面，要想在各个利益相关方之间相互协调，需要考虑的问题还有很多，谈判的变数也将随之增大。”

NiYueJu prediction,International service trade negotiations of the main issues will focus on financial/logistics/Intellectual property rights and patent technology,For future negotiations but she did not very good,"An international negotiations involve a lot of,Although in some degree in economies have reached a consensus on,But in the specific details,If you want to in each stakeholder coordination between,There are many problems need to consider,Negotiation variables also will then increase."

　　究其原因，倪月菊分析认为，尽管参与谈判的都是服务贸易产业发展水平较高的国家或地区，但是因为各方的优势产业不同，谈判的内容就变得十分繁琐。与此同时，美国采取的谈判态度也相对强势，希望其他国家或地区对自己的优势产业开放市场。然而，服务贸易涉及到国家安全领域，如电信和金融领域，因此各个谈判方还是会采取比较谨慎的态度。那么，在谈判过程中，究竟是坚持底线还是屈从于美国的压力，这些都不得而知。

Investigate its reason,That NiYueJu analysis,Although participate in negotiation is trade in service industry development level higher countries or regions,But because of the different parties dominant industries,The content of the negotiations will become very tedious.meanwhile,The United States take negotiation attitude is relatively strong,Hope that other countries or regions for their own advantage industry to open up markets.however,Trade in services related to national security domain,Such as telecommunications and the financial sector,So each negotiating party will adopt a more cautious attitude.so,In the course of our negotiations,What is to stick to the bottom line or bend to the pressure from the United States,These are unknown.

　　进口产品是否会威胁国家安全已经成为各个经济体开展贸易交往最重要的考量。2012年，美国众议院情报委员会公布了一份调查报告，指控中国电信设备制造商华为和中兴对美国构成安全威胁，并“警告和中国华为、中兴合作的美国企业重新找供应商”。三一集团起诉奥巴马一案中，美国也是以国家安全为由勒令三一集团撤出在美相关业务。

Imported products would threaten national security has become a trade contacts each economy the most important considerations.In 2012,,The United States house of representatives intelligence committee released a survey report,Charged with China telecom equipment maker huawei and zte pose a security risk to the United States,and"Warning and China huawei/Zte cooperation of American enterprise to find suppliers".Trinity group prosecution Obama in a case,The United States is on national security grounds ordered out of sany group in the relevant business.

　　本月初，美国最重要的核武器实验室洛斯·阿拉莫斯国家实验室发现其计算机系统包含了一些中国制造的网络交换机。美国表示，出于国家安全考虑，将逐步撤换这批设备。

The beginning of this month,The United States is the most important nuclear weapons laboratory los Lawrence o ramos national laboratory found that the computer system consists of some Chinese manufacturing network switch.The United States said,National security grounds,Will gradually replace this batch of equipment.

　　另一个事实是，据行业主管部门统计，中国有60%的行政事业单位的网站可以自由进入，经济部门中70%的信息安全设备是进口设备，特别是信息与核心软件几乎全部依赖进口，国外供货商也容易侵入网络系统。

Another is the fact that,According to the department in charge of industry statistics,China has 60% of the administrative institutions of the website can free entry,Economic department of 70% of the information security equipment is imported equipment,Especially information and core software almost all rely on imports,Foreign suppliers also easy invasion network system.

　　国家安全范畴划分不清晰，这为国际服务贸易谈判又增加了难度。多边贸易体系面临的最具挑战性的问题之一是如何解决自由贸易和国家安全间与日俱增的冲突。多数国际贸易协定都允许签约国可以在涉及国家安全或其他基本安全利益问题时不必遵守条约规定，但这些协定却没有试图去界定什么属于国家安全范畴，目前仍由签约方凭自己的良知和判断力来完成这一界定。

National security category divided not clear,The international service trade negotiations and an increased level of difficulty.Multilateral trading system facing the most challenging one problem is how to solve the free trade and national security between growing conflict.Most international trade agreement is allowed signatory can be involved in national security or other basic security interests problems don't have to abide by the treaties,But the agreement did not attempt to define what belongs to the category of national security,The contractor is still with his conscience and judgment to complete this definition.

　　国际服务贸易谈判新兴国家不积极

International service trade negotiations emerging countries do not actively

　　推动服务贸易谈判，美国和欧盟的算盘打得很响。但是，以中国、印度为首的新兴经济体并没有买账，而是试图避免谈判。

Promote the service trade negotiations,The United States and the European Union the abacus played very sound.but,In China/India led by emerging economies and didn't buy it,But try to avoid negotiations.

　　现阶段，中国正积极参与多哈回合谈判，并认为服务贸易谈判应该成为农业和制造业贸易壁垒谈判大框架下的一部分。 

At present,China is actively involved in the doha round,And that the service trade negotiations should be agricultural and manufacturing barriers to trade negotiations under the framework of big part.