近期部分省份“两会”期间公布的政府工作报告显示，当地将今年固定资产投资增速设定在20%以上。但从短期经济运行的风险看，一季度投资低位徘徊的态势还将延续。一些专家认为，一季度宏观经济运行环比不会有太大改观，外需的不确定性和部分事件的影响仍对经济增长构成掣肘，财政支出和投资将是一季度经济增速的关键变量。

Recently some provinces"lianghui"The government work report released during the show,The local fixed asset investment growth this year will be set in more than 20%.But in the short-term economic operation of the risk to see,Quarter investment low wandering situation will continue.Some experts say,Quarter macroeconomic operation link won't have too big change,Overseas market demand uncertainty and the effects of the event is still part of economic growth constitute a handicap,Fiscal spending and investment will be the key to economic growth in the first quarter of the variable.

　　投资拉动效应短期难现

Investment pull effect short-term difficult now

　　部分省份公布的政府工作报告显示，中西部省份将继续加大基础设施建设的投资力度。例如，新疆、河南等地的中央项目和地方项目投资金额将超过去年整体的水平。可以预见，今年投资驱动的经济增长模式还将强化，但短期内这种效应可能难以体现。

Part of the province's government work report released,The Midwest provinces will continue to increase the construction of infrastructure investment.Such as,xinjiang/Henan, the central project and local project investment amount will be more than last year the level of the whole.Can foresee,This year investment drive economic growth mode will also strengthen,But in the short term this effect may be difficult to reflect.

　　申银万国研究所宏观分析师李慧勇表示，经济增长的变动是结构性因素与周期性因素叠加的共同结果，结构性因素导致的变动是一个相对较慢的过程，而周期性因素导致经济增速围绕长期趋势上下波动。去年全球经济增长相对较弱是经济周期处于相对低点的结果。中国经济领先指标在经历了去年8月到10月的反弹后，11月出现小幅回落。从两个周期的叠加来看，今年一季度可能较难改变这种周期性影响。因此从趋势看，一季度经济运行环比可能不会有太大改观。

ShenYin universal institute LiHuiYong macro analysts said,Economic growth is the change of structural factors and cyclical factors superposition common results,Structural factors lead to changes is a relatively slow process,And cyclical factors lead to economic growth around the long-term trend fluctuate.Last year, global economic growth is relatively weak economic cycle in a relatively low results.China's economic leading indicators of the past year from August to October after the rebound,November appear small back.From two cycle of stack to see,In the first quarter of this year may be more difficult to change this kind of periodic impact.So from the perspective of the trend,Quarter economic operation link may not have too big change.

　　交通银行金融发展研究中心研究员陆志明表示，可能影响一季度GDP的主要负面因素包括出口增速下降、财政支出增速下降、社会融资量增速下降、企业效益下降等。从目前相关部门表态和一些中观数据看，出口低位徘徊、财政支出放缓以及短期内房地产投资面临不确定性将主导一季度经济态势。

Bank of communications financial development research center LiuZhiMing researchers said,In the first quarter GDP may affect the main negative factors include export growth decline/Fiscal spending growth decline/Social RongZiLiang growth decline/Enterprise profits down, etc.From the current related department statement and some medium data to see,Export low end/Fiscal spending slowdown in the short term and the real estate investment faces uncertainty will be dominated by the economic situation in the first quarter.

　　国泰君安宏观分析师姜超表示，去年12月出口同比增长14.1%，四季度同比增长9.4%，如果对出口做三个月移动平均再进行季节调整，可以发现12月的出口6个月变化年率仅为3%左右，而10月与11月相应的6个月变化年率分别为21%和9%。因此，出口环比增速可能已显著放缓。根据一些机构对外需整体形势的估计，今年一季度出口同比增速约为3%左右，二季度甚至可能回落到0附近，全年为8.1%。

Guotai junan macro analysts JiangChao said,Last December exports year-on-year growth of 14.1%,The fourth quarter year-on-year growth of 9.4%,If the export do three months moving average seasonal adjustment again,Can be found that the export of December 6 months change annual rate is only 3% or so,And October and November corresponding 6 months change annual rate were 21% and 9% respectively.so,Export chain growth may have significant slowdown.According to some institutions to the overall situation of foreign estimates,In the first quarter of this year exports year-on-year growth of about 3%,The second quarter may even back to near zero,Throughout the year to 8.1%.

　　财政压力或制约投资冲动

Financial stress or restrict investment impulse

　　虽然地方政府陆续公布今年的投资计划，但就资金和风险约束可能使地方投资拉动大打折扣。

Although the local government has announced this year's investment plan,But capital and risk constraint may make the local investment pull sell at a discount greatly.

　　姜超表示，去年四季度以来的财政支出数据显示，其同比增速已大幅放缓。尽管去年四季度财政支出绝对数额较大，但与2011年四季度相比，增速仅为个位数。另一个衡量财政政策积极程度的指标是12个月滚动财政赤字，目前已连续两个月回落。因此，未来财政支出的放缓可能对投资的拉动有一定的负面效应。在基础设施方面，影响投资的主要因素是政府财力特别是地方政府财力。由于财政收入、卖地收入均显著下降，杠杆水平在2009年后大幅上升，地方政府的投资扩张能力将受到较大的挑战，从而可能抑制其投资冲动。

JiangChao said,Since the fourth quarter of last year's fiscal spending data display,The year-on-year growth has slowed sharply.Although last year four quarter financial expenditure absolute large amount,But in the fourth quarter of 2011 and compared,Only single-digit growth.Another measure of fiscal policy active degree of index is 12 months rolling fiscal deficit,At present has two consecutive months back.so,The future fiscal spending slowdown may pull investment have a negative effect.In infrastructure,The main factors influencing investment is the government financial resources, especially the local government financial resources.Due to the financial income/Income of sale are significantly,Leverage level rise sharply in 2009 years,The local government investment expansion ability will be greater challenges,Thus may inhibit its investment impulse.

　　近期中国人民银行官员的表态称，一季度物价水平可能达到3%。这对于正在整固企稳期的中国经济而言，负面影响可能更大。中金公司首席经济学家彭文生认为，短期内降息的概率有所下降，但物价的温和上涨将导致实体经济融资成本持续走高。 

The people's bank of China's recent official statement said,Quarter price level may be as high as 3%.For this is the whole solid stabilises period of Chinese economic sense,Negative effects may be more big.Cicc's chief economist PengWenSheng think,In the short term the probability of cut interest rates decline,But the price of moderate inflation will lead to the real economy financing cost rising.