中国商务部对来自欧美韩的进口多晶硅“双反”初裁有可能会在2月下旬有结果。

Ministry of commerce of China's imports from Europe and the United States polysilicon"Double reverse"The margin may be in late February have the result.

　　29日，记者从多方了解到，部分业内人士预计该“双反”的初裁税率可能会在20%以上。这一税率若实现的话，中国多家光伏下游生产企业在多晶硅合同的执行上也将有变。其中部分公司可能会与海外企业解约，节省一笔额外的采购开支。

29,Reporters learned from many,Part of the personage inside course of study is expected to this"Double reverse"At the beginning of the cutting rate may be in more than 20%.This rate if happen,China's photovoltaic downstream production enterprises in the implementation of polysilicon contract will change.Some of the company may contract with overseas enterprise,Save an extra purchasing cost.

　　初裁税率或20%以上

The margin rate or more than 20%

　　从今年元旦以后，一些多晶硅的上市公司股价就有不同程度的上扬。保利协鑫的股价在节后的几天内大涨了40%;大全新能源的股价异动来得晚了一些，但8天内涨幅也超过了70%。

From this year after New Year's day,Some of the listed company's share price polysilicon have different degrees of rise.Poly association xin's share price after few days surged 40%;Big new energy shares moved come late some,But eight days rose more than 70%.

　　众多光伏业内人士认为，这些多晶硅企业股价的上扬，可能与商务部或在2月底公布“双反”调查结果有关。这一时间或比原定时间有所提前。该调查从2012年11月1日开始，通常会在2013年11月1日前结束，但参与这起反倾销调查的一位律师向本报记者透露，今年6月参与各方可能会全部走完流程。

Many pv the personage inside course of study thinks,These polysilicon enterprise stock prices rise,May and the ministry of commerce or by the end of February announced"Double reverse"The results of the survey about.This time or time than originally planned to advance.The survey from November 1, 2012 start,Usually in November 2013 1 end,But in the anti-dumping investigation of a lawyer to our reporter said,In June this year to participate in the parties may all go all process.

　　一位业内知情人士透露，他们猜测多晶硅的初裁税率有望在20%至50%之间，“初裁之后，海外的涉案多晶硅公司需向有关部门缴纳保证金。假设终裁的税率低于初裁税率的话，这笔保证金将多退少补。”但他也强调，最终的税率情况，仍要等待商务部的结果。

An industry insider,They suspect that the polysilicon cutting rate is expected to between 20% and 50%,"Beginning after cutting,Overseas involving polysilicon company should pay deposit to the relevant departments.Assume that the rate is lower than the final cutting rate at the beginning of the words,The margin will retreat more fill less."But he also stressed,The final rate condition,Still want to wait for the results of the ministry of commerce.

　　而高华证券的一份分析报告则认为，此前商务部没有透露(这一“双反”案)潜在关税的规模、范围等，“我们也注意到，欧盟针对中国晶体硅光伏组件和关键部件的反倾销调查也从2012年9月6日已开始。”

Gao hua securities and an analysis report, think,After the ministry of commerce did not disclose(this"Double reverse"case)The size of the potential tariffs/Range, etc,"We also pay attention to,The European Union in China crystal silicon pv module and key components from the anti-dumping investigation on September 6, 2012 has begun."

　　该券商分析师在报告中提到，尽管商务部的“双反”调查行为显示了中国政府支持处境艰难的太阳能行业，但由于2011年超过60%的中国出口太阳能产品也销往欧洲市场，中国和欧盟间的光伏贸易摩擦的日益升级，也可能为中国太阳能企业带来更大的挑战。

The securities analysts in the report said,Although the ministry of commerce of the"Double reverse"Investigation shows that the behavior of the Chinese government support in difficulties of solar industry,But as a result of 2011 more than 60% of China's export products are sold to the European market of solar energy,China and the eu trade friction between the pv escalating,May also for China's solar energy enterprise to bring greater challenges.

　　合同变数

Contract variable

　　“双反”的这一裁定，可能会影响国内多晶硅价格的上扬。但对国内的下游组件企业而言，萦绕它们的一个问题是，多晶硅合同该怎样执行。

"Double reverse"This ruling,May affect domestic polysilicon prices rise.But for domestic downstream components for enterprise,They linger around a problem is,Polysilicon contract how to implement.

　　前述知情人士表示，多晶硅合同一共分为几种：一是长期订单(下称“长单”)，确定金额和数量;另一种是执行现货价的随行就市合同。后一种已成为了包括保利协鑫、赛维、洛阳中硅、大全新能源等多晶硅上游公司最通用的方式，“中国多晶硅企业都不想失去大客户。即便他们此前与尚德、阿特斯等这样的下游公司签了“长单”，但几乎全数作废，早在去年就改成了现货合同。

The people familiar with the matter say,Polysilicon contract are divided into several:One is the long-term orders(Hereinafter referred to as"Long single"),Determine the amount and quantity;Another is to carry out the spot price is the contract.The latter has become the including of poly xin/"D/Luoyang in silicon/Big new energy upstream polysilicon the most general way,"China's polysilicon enterprise want to lose this big customer.Even if they had and suntech/Liverpool, such as lower company signed"Long single",But almost all cancelled,As early as in last year into a spot contract.

　　海外多晶硅供应商则不同。目前，中国的多家下游光伏公司手头上仍有40～50美元/公斤的多晶硅海外长单需执行，而市价已跌到了17～18美元/公斤。但当初买卖双方对长单做了严格约定，一旦解约，中方企业将支付大量违约金。

Overseas polysilicon supplier is different.At present,China's several downstream pv company have on hand still has forty to fifty dollars/kg of polysilicon overseas long single need to implement,And the market price has dropped to 17 ~ eighteen dollars/kg.But the parties had to long single made strictly agreed,Once the contract,The Chinese enterprise will pay a lot of liquidated damages.

　　尽管此前下游光伏公司——天合光能(TSL.NYSE)称，自己并没有100多亿美元的多晶硅合同在手，但其到底有多少未解约、仍在执行的海外多晶硅长单，并没有详尽说法。

Although the downstream pv company, pv(TSL. NYSE)says,Themselves and no more than $100 of polysilicon contract in hand,But the how many not cancelled/Still in the implementation of overseas polysilicon long single,And no detailed statement.

　　据业内预测，未来十年，中国光伏企业与各方签订的需要执行的长单总额可能仍高达200亿～300亿美元。

According to the forecast,The next decade,China pv enterprises and the needs of all parties to an executive long single amount may still up to $20 billion to $30 billion.

　　前述知情人士称，上下游公司当初在签订长单时，可能会写明一个“不可抗力”。如果彼此将“双反”也列为“不可抗力”之一的话，那么下游企业就很有可能以此作依据，与上游的海外多晶硅公司实施解约。

According to people familiar with the foregoing,The company had a downstream in the long list,May indicate a"Force majeure".If each other will"Double reverse"Also listed as"Force majeure"If one of,So the downstream enterprises are likely to be based on this,And in the upper reaches of the overseas polysilicon company contract implementation.

　　目前，国内外的十大多晶硅生产厂中，仅有6家还在开工，其中美国的REC(硅烷法)生产开工率还维持100%，而包括德国瓦克、中国保利协鑫、韩国OCI等公司也只有50%到80%的开工率。国金证券统计数据表明，其他如赛维LDK、新光硅业、永祥、瑞能等公司都处于停产阶段。

At present,At home and abroad in the top ten polysilicon factory,Only six in commencement,The American REC(Silane method)The production rate of operation for more than 100%,And including Germany wacker/China poly association xin/South Korean companies such as OCI only 50% to 80% of the rate of operation.Countries gold securities statistics show,Other such as "d LDK/Xinguang silicon industry/Ever cheung/He can wait, companies are in the midst of production stage.

　　而一家国内多晶硅公司的管理层也表示，“双反”因素及光伏整体需求提升等影响，会促使今年的国内多晶硅产量有所增加，约在10万吨左右，而去年是6万吨(占全国多晶硅总销量的40%左右)。“我们这样上万吨规模的多晶硅企业，并不希望多晶硅价涨得太快，维持在25~28美元/公斤就可以了，比我们的成本略高一点。反之，如果多晶硅价格涨得太快，一些中小规模的多晶硅企业也会开始大量复苏并生产，可想而知随后又将是一场价格恶战，很快大家再度陷入亏损停产的状态。”

And a domestic polysilicon company management also said,"Double reverse"Factors and pv overall demand such as promotion effect,To this year's domestic polysilicon production increase,About 100000 tons,And last year was 60000 tons(Accounted for about 40% of the total sales polysilicon)."We so tons of the size of the polysilicon enterprise,Do not want to polysilicon price has gone up so rapidly,Maintain in 25 ~ and usd/kg is ok,The cost of than we was a little.and,If polycrystalline silicon prices rose too fast,Some small and medium-sized enterprise polysilicon will start to a large number of recovery and production,Then it will be a set price,Soon everyone in the state of production loss again."