作者：许一力 

The author:XuYiLi 

　　美国、欧洲的量化宽松政策相继出台，日本近期甚至出台不限量的宽松政策，中国的货币发行甚至超过世界一半，各国相继进入了一场印钞比赛。这场比赛首当其冲的是世界范围内的货币贬值之争，然后是贸易战场上的出口之争。尤其近期日本甚至公然将贸易保护搬上台面，国际上关于全球贸易战的声音越来越大。

The United States/Europe's quantitative easing policy releasing,Japan recently even issued not limit loose policy,China's currency issue even more than half the world,Countries have entered a print chao game.The game is the worldwide currency devaluation rivalry,And then a trade war on the field of the export rivalry.Especially recent Japanese even openly will trade protection under the table,International on a global trade war voice is more and more big.

　　战争最像贸易，战争中的会战，等于贸易中的现金支付。在和平时期，贸易反过来亦像战争，贸易摩擦不过是试探性交锋。

The most like trade war,Lost in the war,The cash is equal to the trade.In time of peace,Trade in turn also like war,Trade friction is but exploratory cross swords.

　　很多人都远离贸易战场，没有亲身体验。从根本上来说，贸易战的起源本就是货币汇率，而其核心便是本币低估之争。在贸易市场上，哪国都喜欢自己的本币贬值。在出口企业呆过的人都知道，本币贬值哪怕只有一点，出口优势马上倾斜，本国的出口立马增加，见效非常快。如果本币升值，出口企业的利润马上受挤压，员工大量失业，出口减少。

A lot of people are away from the trade field,No experience.basically,This is the origin of the trade currency,And its core is the struggle currencies undervalued.In the trade market,Which countries like your local currency devaluation.In the export enterprise stay everyone know,Local currency devaluation even if only a little,Export advantage immediately tilt,The country's exporters immediately increase,Act very fast.If a stronger currency,Export enterprise profits immediately squash,Staff a lot of unemployment,Export reduce.

　　如果爆发大规模的贸易战，那么对战胜国和战输国来说，影响是非常巨大的。80年代末期的日本经济极度膨胀，在当时不少日本人看来，日本赶超美国只是迟早的事，甚至已经赶超美国。那时候的日本在西方所有尖端工业部门占据核心位置,似乎没有一个领域它不超过它的西方对手的，甚至美国的导弹都要受日本技术的牵制。

If the scale of the trade war broke out,Then the victorious nation and fight for the countries that lose,Influence is very large.80 s Japan extreme expansion,At that time a lot of Japanese people,Japan surpass the United States is just a matter of time,Has even catch up with the United States.At that time of the Japanese in the west all advanced industrial sector occupy the core position,There seems to be no one field it is not more than its western rivals,Even the U.S. missile will be Japanese technology of traction.

　　面对这样的情况，世界各国纷纷爆发对日本的贸易战，先是美日的半导体芯片战，华盛顿对日本某些电子产品采取100%的惩罚性关税,其严厉程度是战后所从未有过的。接着英国政府也对日本接连发动了强大攻势,要日本向英国开放市场,否则英国将拒发或吊销设在伦敦的日本金融机构的营业执照。欧洲共同体也调查日本在欧洲“不公正地”倾销某些半导体芯片的情况。日本大有处于四面楚歌之势。那场贸易战以《广场协议》的签订为结束标志，日元汇率一夜之间甚至升值一倍。那场贸易战欧美完胜，日本惨败。此后20年的日本出口严重受损，经济一蹶不振。

In the face of such situation,The countries all over the world to Japan in the outbreak of a trade war,First the semiconductor chip war,Washington to Japan some electronic products take 100% of the punitive tariffs,The severe post-war is never.Then the British government also launched a strong offensive in Japan,To Japan to the British open market,Otherwise, Britain will be denied or revoked in London of the Japanese financial institutions business license.The European Community survey in Europe and Japan"wrongly"Dumping some semiconductor chip situation.Japan is in be besieged on all sides of the potential.The trade war with[Plaza accord]For the signing of the end mark,The yen appreciation overnight or even a times.The trade war over Europe and the United States,Japan's defeat.After twenty years of Japanese export badly damaged,Economy cannot recover after a setback.

　　从这个例子上，我们有没有看到中国和美国之间的影子呢？我们也正在赶超美国，我们的货币超发以及人民币汇率低估问题也正在受到国外的诟病，各种贸易摩擦不断出现。有人说我们中国有军事实力做保障，不会陷入当时日本的困境，这不尽然。

From this example on,We have seen between China and the United States "shadow?We are also catch up with the United States,Our currency super hair and RMB underestimated problem is also from abroad for,All kinds of trade friction appear constantly.Some say we Chinese have military strength to do guarantee,Don't fall into the plight of Japan at that time,This not exactly.

　　在中国，近代史同样由一场著名的贸易战打开——鸦片战争成为近代中国经历过的最为屈辱同样也是最刻骨铭心的贸易战。战争以西方国家自由“倾销”鸦片为终结，顺带捎走了一系列的不平等条约。这场贸易战的结束，同样导致了中国与西方列强之间的鸦片交易恢复到“正常”的局面中。

In China,Modern history also by a famous trade war opened the opium war in modern China, become the most humiliating experience, are also the most unforgettable trade war.War to western countries free"dumping"Opium to end the,Maybe go to take a series of unequal treaties.The end of a trade war,Also led to the China and western powers between the opium trade back to"normal"situation.

　　可笑的是，鸦片战争时期，西方各国需求的是所谓“自由”销售鸦片的权利。然而当时间从近代史之初回到21世纪，西方的绅士们不再崇尚绝对的自由贸易。国家间的贸易由“自由”变为了“限制”。中国在世界贸易平台上，可谓是受到限制最多的国家。

Ridiculous is,Opium war,Western countries demand is called"free"Sales of opium rights.However, when time from modern history back to the beginning of the 21st century,Western gentlemen not advocate absolute free trade.The trade between countries by"free"Into the"limit".China's world trade platform,It may be said is limited most populous country.

　　这一点是毋庸置疑的，即便加入了WTO，中国也需要忍受极长的商品禁售名单。而又因为中国在世界贸易中绝少掌握商品定价权，在忍受商品禁售的同时，中国常年在贸易中充当着非常被动的角色。最典型的例子莫过于中国的铁矿石困局——中国缺少铁矿石定价权，而又是世界最大的铁矿石消费国，因此钢铁行业盈利的绝大部分不得不作为原料的购入费用白白奉送给国际垄断巨头。不仅仅是铁矿石贸易存在问题，中国在很多领域都是国际贸易规则的受限制一方。

It is beyond doubt,Even if the accession to the WTO,China also needs to endure a long list of banning goods.And because China in world trade seldom master commodity pricing,In the stand at the same time -- goods,Chinese perennial in trade ACTS as a very passive role.The most typical example is China's iron ore this - China's lack of iron ore pricing,And the world's largest consumer of iron ore,So most of the iron and steel industry profits to the buying cost as raw materials in the international monopoly giant.Not only is the iron ore trade problems,China in many areas are international trade rules of the restricted party.

　　中国为什么是国际贸易的受限制一方呢？原因非常简单。中国是以加工贸易为主的出口国家，这样的出口定位，因为其可替代性强，所以从严格来说，并不存在贸易国双方双赢的局面，总有一方的市场将被另外一国所抢占。而中国常年的制造业路线，又是以要素价格扭曲并承担相应成本而取得的成本优势。这让中国在过去十数年的对外贸易中罕逢敌手，又备受排斥。也就是说，30多年来，中国长期处于低要素价格的状态之中，包括低土地成本、低环保成本、低资金成本以及低人力成本等，这恰是其他国家不曾拥有的。中国成为了对于外资最具有吸引力的市场，跨国企业的进出口贸易，成为了中国常年巨额顺差中的主要部分。

Why China's international trade restricted party?The reason is very simple.China's processing trade is mainly export countries,Such export orientation,Because the alternative is strong,So from strictly speaking,Trader does not exist the win-win situation,One side of the market will be in addition to the country.China perennial manufacturing route,Is the price distortion factor and bear the corresponding cost and obtain the cost advantage.This let China in the past ten years of foreign trade on Abraham adversary,And the rejection.that,More than 30 years,China's long-term low state of factor prices,Including low land cost/Low environmental cost/Low cost of capital and low labor costs, etc,This just is other countries do not have.China has become the most attractive to foreign market,The multinational enterprise's import and export trade,Become the Chinese perennial large surplus of the main parts.

　　这并不是好事，从全球贸易战的演进来看，顺差国从来都是替罪羊。最大的顺差国，必然是最大的那只羊。

This is not good,From the evolution of global trade war to see,ShunChaGuo has always been a scapegoat.Biggest ShunChaGuo,Must be the biggest sheep.

　　中国作为最显眼的顺差国家，就很可能成为贸易战中的众矢之的。最近日本公然将贸易保护搬上台面，贸易战的范围越来越大。全球贸易战的进一步升级，必然是伴随着以各种借口设置的贸易壁垒的林立，以欧盟为样本的贸易保护主义，将极大地蚕食中国制造业的国际生存空间。最近西方国家以竞争性宽松为基础的货币贬值，这极容易推高人民币汇率，进而抑制中国商品出口，甚至是反向争夺中国市场。而缺少出口对于国内产能的消化，中国经济很可能就此落入通缩的恶性循环之中，进而产生剧烈的社会动荡和经济衰退。从这个角度来看，新一轮的贸易战已经展开了。

China, as the most conspicuous surplus countries,It is very possible to become the target of public criticism trade war.Recent Japanese openly will trade protection under the table,The scope of the trade is more and more big.A global trade war further upgrade,Must be with with all sorts of excuse set with trade barriers,With the European Union as a sample of trade protectionism,Will greatly encroach on China's manufacturing international living space.Recently the western countries to competitive loose on the basis of currency depreciation,This very easy to push up the RMB exchange rate,China's merchandise exports and inhibition,Even reverse for the Chinese market.And the lack of export to the domestic production of digestion,China's economy is likely to fall into a vicious circle of deflation in among,And then produce severe social unrest and economic recession.From this point of view,A new round of trade war has been launched.

　　新中国以来，中国鲜有经历过真正具有大规模的贸易战争，仅有的经历不妨称之为摩擦。真正贸易战的爆发，将是非常致命的。相似的例子我们不妨看看广场协议后一下子失去了二十年的日本，以及石油禁运之后即将面临有史以来最大规模金融危机的伊朗。新中国还远没有经历过这种真正规模的贸易战，而一旦真的开打，鹿死谁手还真需要观察。

Since the founding of,China experienced a few truly have the massive trade war,The only experience might as well call friction.The outbreak of real trade war,Will be very deadly.Similar examples we might as well look after the plaza accord a lost twenty years of Japan,And after the oil embargo will face the most major financial crisis of Iran.New China is far from experienced the true scale of trade war,And once really begins,Who will gain supremacy. Really need to observe.

　　不过发动贸易战真的就能够解决美国，乃至于西方国家的就业问题吗？答案也并不那么肯定，毕竟在经历了长达三十年的制造业迁徙之后，中国的产能出口与西方国家国内的制造业重合度已经相当低了。然而，这并不能停下西方国家发动贸易战的热情。当下的世界格局，贸易战已经成为了一种手段，而非目的本身。

But start a trade war really can solve the United States,Even the western employment problem?The answer is not so sure,After all, after a thirty years of manufacturing after migration,China and the western countries export capacity of domestic manufacturing contact ratio is low.however,It does not stop the enthusiasm of the western countries start a trade war.The current pattern of the world,Trade war has become a means,Rather than end in itself.

　　当下的贸易战是完全服务于政治的。当西方国内民众不满情绪达到峰值时，以咱们中国为主的顺差国的替罪羊效应便要以贸易战的形式逐渐展开。尽管我们说贸易战的展开是一场两败俱伤的烂账，然而，为了赢得选票，这又成为了西方政客的不二选择。所以，即使中国有超凡的军事实力做保障，并不一定能避免大规模贸易战爆发的可能性。

The current trade war is completely in the service of politics.When western domestic public discontent when peak,To our Chinese ShunChaGuo as scapegoat effect will gradually develop in the form of a trade war.Although we say trade war launched is a internecine accounts in a mess,however,In order to win votes,It became the western politician's first choice.so,Even if China has great military strength to do guarantee,Does not necessarily can avoid the possibility of large-scale trade war broke out.

　　长年以来，隐忍和睿智的对外政治态度，为中国营造了非常稳定的发展空间，然而，急速膨胀起来的中国经济却同样缺少真正风雨的历练。中国经济缺少对于危机的真正认识，和对于衰退的足够的思想和物质上的准备。而虚高的国内经济和积弱的国内消费和民间财富，也将成为危机到来时推波助澜的导火索。

Since years,Bear and wise foreign political attitude,For China to build a stable development space,however,Rapid inflation up China's economy but also the lack of real rain of experience.China's economy in crisis of true knowledge,And for the decline of the enough ideas and material preparation.And the virtual high domestic economic and JiRuo domestic consumption and private wealth,Will also become a crisis comes fueled the fuse.

　　中国必须为将来的贸易战争做好准备，除了汇率上的坚守，中国更需要产业上的升级，因为作为世界工厂的中国是无力抵抗西方国家的贸易保护大潮的。中国需要培养自身的消费能力，只有如此，中国才能摆脱出口依赖和投资依赖的困局，让中国经济真正走上良性循环的道路。

China must for future trade ready for war,In addition to the exchange rate,China needs more industry upgrade,As the world factory China is unable to resist western trade protection of spring.China needs to develop their spending power,There is only so,China can get rid of the export dependence and investment rely on this,Let China economic real virtuous circle.