“促转型”培育外贸竞争新优势

"Promote transformation"To cultivate the new foreign trade competition advantage

　　适当降低外贸增长预期目标，将“促转型”和培育竞争新优势作为未来工作的重点

Reduced the foreign trade growth targets,will"Promote transformation"And cultivate new competition advantage as the focus of future work

　　文/赵晋平

Article/ZhaoJinPing

　　日前，国家海关总署公布数据显示，去年12月份中国进出口规模出现了大幅反弹，双双创历史新高，当月进出口总值为3668.4亿美元，同比增长10.2%。其中，出口同比增长14.1%，进口同比增长6.0%。

a,The general customs figures show,In December last year China import and export scale of the sharp rebound,Both a record,The import and export value is 366.84 billion dollars,Year-on-year growth of 10.2%.the,Export year-on-year growth of 14.1%,Imports increased 6.0% year-on-year.

　　这是否意味着出口已经进入持续回升阶段？2013年外贸发展预期如何？带着这些问题，笔者不久前分别赴义乌、厦门等地进行调研，并向全国201家企业发放了调查问卷，还对其中57家企业作了访谈。

Does this mean that export has entered the stage of continue to rise?In 2013, foreign trade development expected?With these questions,The author not long ago in yiwu, respectively/Xiamen for research,And to the nation's 201 enterprise handed out the questionnaire,Also the 57 enterprise for the interview.

　　就目前情况来看，我国外贸回升趋势并不稳定，2013年的外部经济形势依然充满复杂性和不确定性。因此，为了留有余地、避免过度追求速度引发出口高估等不良反应，建议2013年适当下调外贸增长预期目标，把政策着力点放在“促转型”和培育新优势方面。

With respect to the current situation,Our country foreign trade upward trend is not stable,2013 years of external economic situation is still full of complexity and uncertainty.so,In order to leave some leeway/Avoid excessive speed cause adverse reactions such as export overvalued,Suggested in 2013 by appropriate foreign trade growth targets,The focus on policy"Promote transformation"And fostering new advantage.

　　参照2012年6.2%的增长水平，宜将2013年外贸增长预期目标确定为8%，并参照国际惯例，结合实际运行情况分阶段对预期目标作出调整。

Reference to 2012's 6.2% growth level,Should be 2013 goals determine foreign trade growth was 8%,And with reference to international practice,Based on the actual operation points stage to adjust targets.

　　外贸回升趋势尚不稳定

Foreign trade upward trend is not stable

　　根据海关统计和制造业出口交货值统计来看，2012年对外贸易大体具有以下几个突出特点。

According to customs statistics and manufacturing export value of statistics to see,In 2012, foreign trade generally has the following several prominent characteristics.

　　一是贸易顺差同比扩大。2012年由于进口增速明显低于出口，导致贸易顺差比2011年有所扩大，达到2311亿美元，同比增加49%；贸易特化系数由上年4.3%上升到6%，与2010年水平相近。

One is the trade surplus year-on-year expand.In 2012, due to the import growth was significantly lower than the export,The trade surplus leads to more than 2011 years have somewhat expanded,Us $231.1 billion,Increased by 49% year-on-year;Trade specialization coefficient rose from 4.3% to 6%,And in 2010 near the level.

　　二是面向主要新兴经济体双边贸易增长较快。如面向东盟、俄罗斯、南非等的出口增长明显快于平均增长水平；虽然面向美国的增长形势也好于平均水平，但与日本、欧盟的双边贸易增长较低，甚至出现负增长。

The second is the main emerging economies to the bilateral trade is growing rapidly.As for asean/Russia/South Africa and other export growth significantly faster than the average level of growth;Although facing America's growth situation is better than average,But with the Japanese/The eu's bilateral trade growth is low,Appear even negative growth.

　　三是消费品出口增长较为稳定。根据制造业出口交货值统计，增长最快的主要是文体用品、食品、饮料、农副产品等行业；黑色金属、化工、造纸、专用设备、仪器仪表、交通设备等行业增长也快于平均水平；但石油化工、有色金属等中间投入品则出现了负增长。

The third is consumer goods export growth is relatively stable.According to the manufacturing export value of statistics,The fastest growth is mainly sports supplies/food/drinks/Agricultural and sideline products, etc;Black metal/chemical/paper/Special equipment/instrument/Transportation equipment industry growth also faster than average;But oil chemical/Non-ferrous metals intermediate inputs have a negative growth.

　　四是中西部地区出口增长加快，产业转移效果明显。2012年，中部和西部地区工业企业出口交货值分别同比增长26.8%和40.1%，而东部仅增长4.2%。

The fourth is the Midwest export growth to speed up,Industrial transfer effect is obvious.In 2012,,The central and western regions industrial enterprises to export value year-on-year growth of 26.8% and 40.1% respectively,And the east rose by only 4.2%.

　　五是民营企业增长快于其他企业。1～11月民营企业出口交货值增长10.7%，高出平均水平近4个百分点。

Five is private enterprise growing faster than other enterprise.1 ~ 11 months private enterprises to export value of 10.7% growth,Nearly 4% higher than average.

　　总体而言，出口增速回升有利于稳定经济增长。如1～11月制造业统计显示，出口交货值增速回升拉动制造业销售产值增长提高1个百分点，比上半年的0.8个百分点有所上升。另外，从总需求结构的角度分析，顺差的扩大使得货物贸易净出口拉动总需求增长了1个百分点。

In general,Export growth back to steady economic growth.Such as 1 ~ 11 months manufacturing statistics show,Export value of growth picks up pull manufacturing sales value growth increased by 1%,More than 0.8% in the first half of increased.In addition,From the perspective of total demand structure,Surplus expansion of trade in goods that net exports aggregate demand increased by 1%.

　　不过，综观整个2012年，会发现外贸增长波动较大，虽然在年中曾经出现过较大幅度的回升，但回升趋势并不稳定。实际上，去年12月份之所以出现较快增长，很大程度上是由于企业年末集中出口，而不能说明外需形势已出现明显改善。

but,Throughout the 2012 years,Will find much fluctuation of foreign trade growth,Although the years have been a substantial rebound,But the upward trend is not stable.In fact,Last December the reason that has increased rapidly,Largely due to the end of enterprise centralized export,And now does not mean that the situation has appeared obviously improved.

　　相关的问卷调查结果也印证了当前出口形势的严峻性。在201家受访企业中，四成左右的企业出口呈现负增长，其中还有10%的企业下降30%以上；只有25.6%的企业出口实现10%以上增长，低于下降企业15个百分点。

Relevant questionnaire survey results also confirm the current export of the gravity of the situation.In 201 of enterprises,Forty percent of enterprises to export present negative growth,There are 10% of the enterprise dropped more than 30%;Only 25.6% of the enterprises to export to realize more than 10% growth,Fewer than 15% of the enterprise.

　　据厦门市政府部门反映，最近将生产基地或订单向东南亚、南亚地区转移的案例明显增多。接受访谈的57家企业中，考虑“生产和订单向国外转移”的比重达到17.5%，比上半年调查时的6.4%上升了11.1个百分点，也多于有意向国内其他地区转移的企业。

According to the xiamen municipal government departments to reflect,Recent production base or order to southeast Asia/South Asia transfer cases increased significantly.Accept the interview 57 enterprises,consider"Production and order to foreign transfer"The proportion of 17.5%,More than 6.4% of the survey in the first half rose by 11.1%,Also more than are interested in other regions of the enterprise.

　　需要引起注意的是，企业经营压力的加大，将会对就业造成一定冲击。问卷调查结果显示，22.8%的企业回答考虑裁员，这比上半年调查时的6.4%有明显提高。

Pay attention to is,More and more pressure on the enterprise management,Will cause a certain impact on employment.According to the results of the survey questionnaire,22.8% of the enterprise answer consider downsizing,This survey than the first half of the 6.4% have increased significantly.

　　今年预计增长5%～8%

This year is forecast to grow by 5% ~ 8%

　　放眼2013年，外部环境依然不容乐观，主要发达国家经济复苏存在进一步放缓的可能。

In 2013,The external environment is still not optimistic,The main developed countries economic recovery there may slow further.

　　欧盟不久前发布的2012年三季度GDP统计显示，欧元区经济下降0.2%，这已经是连续4个季度出现衰退；同期，日本GDP降幅高达3.5%，美国增长率停留在2.7%。这说明，三大发达经济体均未摆脱困难局面。

The European Union recently released 2012 third quarter GDP statistics show,The eurozone economy fell by 0.2%,This is four consecutive quarters into recession;Over the same period,Japan's GDP fell by 3.5%,The growth rate stays at 2.7%.This shows that,Three major developed economies all did not get rid of the difficult situation.

　　实际上，去年10月，IMF就已经下调了2013年全球及主要经济体增长预测，但此后出现的美国“财政悬崖”和日本“非法购岛”危机则进一步增加了未来全球经济的下行风险。此前，美国会预算办公室预测，财政悬崖可能导致今年美国GDP下降0.5%；失业率上升至9.1%。虽然这一问题暂时有所缓解，但美国的财政紧缩压力仍然存在。

In fact,Last October,,IMF has cut 2013 global and main economy growth forecasts,But since then appear in the United States"Fiscal cliff"And Japan"Illegal purchase island"Crisis is further increased the future global economy downside risks.after,The budget office prediction,Financial cliff may lead to America's GDP fell by 0.5% this year;The unemployment rate rose to 9.1%.Although this problem temporarily to ease,But the United States financial squeeze pressure still exist.

　　日本瑞穗银行综合研究所预测，美日两国2013年经济增长率将分别滑落至1.4%和1.1%；美国的进口增长仅有0.7%，比2012年回落2个百分点；日本的进口增速也将由4.4%下滑到1.2%。考虑到欧元区进口增长前景更为悲观等因素，2013年国际市场需求明显回升的可能性不大。

Japanese mizuho comprehensive research institute forecast,The two countries in 2013 the GDP growth rate will be down to 1.4% and 1.1% respectively;The United States import growth of only 0.7%,A drop of 2% more than in 2012;Japan's imports will also decline from 4.4% to 1.2%.Considering the eurozone import growth prospects factors such as more pessimistic,In 2013, the international market demand rebounded unlikely.

　　从国内因素来看，劳动力成本上涨的滞后影响将继续制约企业出口竞争力。根据前述问卷调查，出口成本上升的企业占六成，其中16.6%的企业面临成本大幅度上升压力；与此同时，出口商品价格普遍下降，挤压了企业盈利空间；亏损企业占比达到18.6%，比6月调查结果上升11.9个百分点。

To see from domestic factors,Labor costs of the lagged effect will continue to restrict enterprise export competitiveness.According to the questionnaire survey,The rise in the cost of export enterprises accounted for sixty percent,16.6% of the enterprise facing upward pressure on cost greatly;meanwhile,Export commodity prices generally decline,Squeeze the enterprise profit space;Loss enterprise reached 18.6%,The results of the survey than June rose 11.9%.

　　需要提醒的是，从2012年10月开始，由于其他国家本币贬值，引发中国的综合有效汇率出现较快上升，如果今年这一现象继续存在，人民币名义汇率和综合实际有效汇率都可能出现上升，从而进一步削弱我国出口产品的价格竞争力。

What need reminds is,From October 2012,Because other countries local currency devaluation,Cause China's comprehensive effective exchange rate rise in fast,If this phenomenon continue this year,The nominal exchange rate and comprehensive real effective exchange rate rise is possible,Thus further weaken our export products price competition.

　　企业对2013年出口形势的看法与上述判断接近。201家受访企业中，30.1%的企业认为2013年出口将下降，其中3.5%认为形势会恶化；28.7%的企业认为和2012年持平；41.2%的企业认为会有好转，但认为大幅度好转的仅占2%。

The enterprise to 2013 export situation with the view to judge.201 of the enterprise,30.1% of the enterprise think 2013 exports will decline,3.5% of them think that the situation will worsen;28.7% of the enterprise think the same as in 2012;41.2% of the enterprise think there will be better,But think greatly improve accounted for only 2%.

　　企业的判断来源于订单。调查结果显示，订单同比持平和有所增加的企业达到受访企业近一半，其中3个月以上订单的比重较上半年调查结果上升。一些企业反映，根据目前手中订单判断，2013年一季度形势并不乐观，但在这之后可能会略有好转。

The judgment of the enterprise from the order.According to the results of the survey,As compared to the order and the increase of the enterprise to enterprise nearly half,Three months above order in the first half of the proportion of the results of the survey is rising.Some enterprise reflects,According to the current hand order judgment,In the first quarter of 2013 the situation is not optimistic,But after that may be a little better.

　　综合来看，在全球经济仍将缓慢复苏的背景下，2013年我国出口有望继续实现增长，但增幅预计在5%～8%之间，大幅度回升的可能性较校

Comprehensive to see,In the global economy will slow recovery background,In 2013, exports are expected to continue to achieve growth,But growth is expected to between 5% ~ 8%,The possibility of substantially picks up a school