网易机构预测指数第十一期对CPI、信贷、进出口等数据进行了预测，调查显示1月份CPI为1.9%，全年CPI涨幅在2.9%左右，全年PPI为0.8%，有望转正。1月出口大幅反弹，增速有望达15.5%，进口也呈现回升态势，1月进口预计为19.7%。1月新增贷款料增近1万亿。全年出口增速约为9.2%，全年进口增速约为9.7%，全年顺差约为2291亿美元。

Netease agency forecast index to the CPI period of 11/credit/Import and export data is forecasted,Investigation shows that January CPI is 1.9%,The CPI increase at about 2.9%,The PPI is 0.8%,Is expected to become a full member.January exports rebound sharply,Growth is expected to be at 15.5%,Import also presents the picks up trend,January is expected to import 19.7%.January new lending material increase of nearly 1 trillion.Annual export growth of about 9.2%,Annual imports about 9.7%,The surplus of about $229.1 billion.

　　出口略微反弹

Exports rebound slightly

　　调查显示，1月出口同比增速预测均值为15.5%，最小值为6%，最大值为26.5%。预测均值高于12月商务部公布的14.1%。

Investigation shows that,January exports year-on-year growth forecast was an average of 15.5%,Minimum value is 6%,Maximum value is 26.5%.The mean prediction is higher than 14.1% of the ministry of commerce announced December.

　　华泰证券认为去年12月PMI新出口订单指数由11月5的50.2下滑至50。在12月出口总量爆发性增长之后，预计今年1月份出口规模将会有所降，主要因为欧美假期消费结束后需求下降。但是由于去年春节因素影响基数较低，出口同比增速仍将继续保持高速增长。

Huatai securities think last December PMI new export orders index from November 5 50.2 down to.On December exports after explosive growth,In January of this year is expected to export scale will have drop,Mainly for Europe and the United States after the holiday consumption decreased demand.But because of last year's Spring Festival factors lower base,Export year-on-year growth will continue to maintain high growth.

　　中信证券认为尽管美国“财政悬崖”一定程度地抑制了私人部门需求，但是美国众议院通过法案，避免短期债务风险爆发，加之欧元区PMI超预期反弹，外部需求总体上较为平稳，出口料将延续温和增长。但由于2012年12月出口增速超预期反弹至高位，2013年1月出口增速或将有所回调。

Citic securities, says that although the United States"Fiscal cliff"A certain degree from the private sector demand,But the United States house of representatives passed a bill,Avoid short-term debt risk outbreak,Together with the eurozone PMI than expected rebound,External demand is more stable on the whole,Export stock will continue to moderate growth.But as a result of December 2012 export growth than expected to high rebound,In January 2013, export growth or to callback.

　　至于未来的出口形势，招商证券认为2013年美国经济维持温和复苏，欧洲经济将略好于2012年。总体来看，2013年出口形势不会继续恶化的可能性较高，同时改善空间有限。主要风险点在于美国两党财政问题博弈、欧债危机发展和德国大选对全球经济的潜在冲击。

As for the future of export situation,China merchants securities that in 2013 the United States economy maintain moderate recovery,The European economy will slightly better in 2012.overall,In 2013 the export situation will not continue to worsen the possibility of higher,At the same time improve the space is limited.The main risk point lies in the two party game financial problems/The debt crisis development and German election on the global economy of the potential impact.

　　进口显著增加

Imports increased significantly

　　调查显示，1月进口同比增速预测均值为19.7%，最小值为-5.5%，最大值为38.2%。预测均值大幅高于12月统计局公布的6%的增长率。

Investigation shows that,January import year-on-year growth forecast was an average of 19.7%,Minimum value is 5.5%,Maximum value is 38.2%.The mean prediction greatly higher than December bureau of statistics released the growth rate of 6%.

　　交通银行认为春节错位因素将在一定程度上推高2013年1月的进口同比增速。由于去年春节是在1月，受企业主动的进口延迟行为影响，去年1月份进口规模整体偏小；预计春节错位形成的低基数效应，将推升2013年1月份的进口同比增速。此外，随着近期内需和实体经济的趋向回暖，中国经济温和回升复苏形态已基本确立，受内需回暖推动，1月进口增速有望延续去年12月以来的反弹走势。

Bank of communications think Spring Festival dislocation factors will push up to a certain extent in January 2013 import year-on-year growth.Because last year the Spring Festival is in January,By the enterprise active import delay influence behavior,Last January import scale smaller overall;The Spring Festival is expected to form the dislocation of low base effect,In January 2013, pushing up the import year-on-year growth.In addition,With the recent domestic demand and the real economy trend milder,China's economic rebound mild recovery form has basically established,Domestic demand by reverting to promote,January import growth is expected to continue since December last year the bounce of the trend.

　　中信证券认为中国经济显著回暖，加之“春节错位”效应，1月份，进口增速料将有较大幅度地反弹。预计1月出口增速为9.5%，进口增速为31.5%，顺差为26亿美元。

Citic securities think that China's economy has warmed,and"The Spring Festival dislocation"effect,In January,Import growth material will have a greatly rebound.January is expected to export growth was 9.5%,Import growth was 31.5%,Surplus for 2.6 billion dollars.

　　方正证券认为1月汇丰PMI新出口订单有所回升，但BDI和CCFI仍在低位，外贸总体仍处弱势。不过，受春节移动假日因素的影响，1月进出口同比增速或大幅回升。

Founder securities think January HSBC PMI new export orders have rebounded,But the BDI and CCFI is still in the low,Foreign trade is still weak in general.but,The Spring Festival holiday by moving the influence of factors,January import and export year-on-year growth or sharply rebounded.

　　贸易顺差减少

Trade surplus to reduce

　　调查显示，12月贸易顺差为181亿美元，最小值为-169亿美元，最大值为408亿美元。国泰君安认为由于进口增速快于出口，贸易顺差环比将会明显下降。

Investigation shows that,December trade surplus for 18.1 billion dollars,Minimum of $16.9 billion -, -,Maximum value for 40.8 billion dollars.Guotai junan that the import growth faster than exports,The trade surplus link will be decreased obviously.