面对着“双顺差”时代的结束尤其是出口需求萎缩和资本流出频率加快对未来经济增长的瓶颈制约，管理层需要弱化对于出口贸易的依赖，在国内培植出以消费为主的经济增长新模式。为此，必须切实深化民众热望的收入分配制度改革，实现财富积累由政府向民间的有序转移。

Facing the"Double surplus"The end of the era, especially export demand atrophy and speed up the frequency of capital outflow of future economic growth bottleneck restriction,Management need weakening for export trade dependence,In the domestic consumption to create is a new mode of economic growth.therefore,Must to deepen people's desire to reform of the income distribution system,To realize the wealth accumulated by the government to folk orderly transfer.

　　我国持续了长达14年之久的对外贸易项目（经常项目和资本项目）“双顺差”格局被改写了。据国家外汇管理局公布的最新年度数据，2012年我国共计产生1173亿美元的资本项目逆差。鉴于这一结果为1998年亚洲金融危机以来所首见，其在全球所引来的关注目光也就格外火辣。

Our country for 14 years foreign trade project(Current account and capital projects)"Double surplus"Pattern has been written.According to the state administration of foreign exchange announced the latest annual data,In 2012, produced a total of $117.3 billion of capital account deficit.In view of the results for 1998 years since the Asian financial crisis first see,The worldwide draws attention vision is particularly hot.

　　与资本贸易项目的“拐点”对应着的，是经济生态与汇率走势的“拐点”。去年我国经济增长率为7.8%，创下13年来的最低点，与此同时，人民币自2005年汇改以来对美元连续升值的势头则在渐渐“钝化”，全年升值幅度几乎为零。经济增速放缓在弱化投资回报效应的同时，也在冲淡境外资本的进入热情，而人民币升值步伐的显著减速则更抑制了境外“热钱”的投资套利冲动并催生了存量投机资本的获利出局之势。据商务部的数据，2012年我国实际使用外资1117.2亿美元，同比下降3.7%，为2009年以来的首次年度下降。与此相对应的数据是，同期我国外汇占款增量只有4946亿，同比剧烈萎缩462%，创出10年来的新低。

And capital trade project"Inflection point"Corresponds to the,Is the economic and ecological and exchange rate movements"Inflection point".Last year, China's economic growth rate of 7.8%,A 13 year low,meanwhile,Since 2005 the yuan against the dollar since the change by continuous appreciation momentum is in gradually"passivation",The appreciation is almost zero.Economic growth is slowing in the weakening return on investment effect at the same time,Also in the dilute overseas capital into the enthusiasm,RMB appreciation and significant reduction is more suppresses overseas"Hot money"Investment arbitrage impulse and led to the stock of speculative capital profit out of power.According to the ministry of commerce of the data,In 2012, the actual use of foreign capital of $111.72 billion,3.7% year-on-year drop,For 2009 years since the first annual decline.And the corresponding data,China's foreign exchange the funding of incremental only 494.6 billion,Severe atrophy 462% year-on-year,Creating a new low of ten years.

　　资本逆差，意味着资本的大规模流出。笔者观察发现，有两大力量构成了我国资本流出的主体阵容。其一，中国企业海外投资正在放量增量。据毕马威发布的最新报告，2012年中国企业共发起329起海外并购，交易总额约为665亿美元，同比增加244%。其二，伴随着美国“再工业化”战略的启动以及为规避欧债危机的自救，再加上“钓鱼岛争端”的冲击，欧、美、日等国企业皆不同程度地出现了从中国抽撤资本的现象，而发达国家企业从中国撤资也映衬了全球外国直接投资（FDI）大幅受挫的基本生态。据联合国贸易和发展会议组织发布的《全球投资趋势监测报告》，2012年全球对外直接投资（FDI）只有1.3万亿美元，同比降幅高达18%，流入发达国家的外国直接投资更急剧降至十年前的水平（5489亿美元）。在外部资本供给并不能满足需求的情况下，发达国家只能在减少资本输出的同时设法吸收更多自有资本回归。

Capital deficit,Means of mass outflow of capital.The author was observed,There are two major forces in China constitute the main body of the capital outflow squad.one,Chinese enterprises overseas investment is incremental measures.According to the latest report issued by KPMG,In 2012, China launched a total of 329 cases of enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions,Trade total about $66.5 billion,Increased by 244% year-on-year.The second,With the United States"To industrialization"Strategy and start to evade the debt crisis of self-help,plus"Diaoyu islands dispute"impact,the/beauty/Japanese enterprise are different degree occurs from the Chinese smoke from the phenomenon of capital,Enterprises in developed countries and from China's pull the plug and set off the global foreign direct investment(FDI)Greatly frustrated basic ecological.According to the United Nations conference on trade and development issued by the organization[Global investment trend monitoring report],In 2012 the global foreign direct investment(FDI)Only $1.3 trillion,As much as 18% year-on-year drop,Inflows of foreign direct investment in developed countries more sharp drop to the level of a decade ago(548.9 billion dollars).In the external capital supply and can't meet the demand of the situation,In the developed countries can only reduce capital output at the same time try to absorb more equity capital return.

　　从某种程度上说，资本项目逆差对我国并不全是坏事。在更多开放资本流出项目的前提下，资本账户逆差可以平衡经常账户的顺差，国际收支也就更容易平衡，央行也可少用增发人民币来购买多余的外汇，这也将减少人民币升值压力。因此，动态地判断，为了矫正“双顺差”机制下的中国际收支平衡的扭曲状态，优化中国的对外贸易环境，管理层会允许和容忍资本与金融项目一定程度逆差的存在。但是，国际经验表明，一国平衡国际收支的最好方式，是大量经常顺差对应着大量资本逆差。以此观察，我们目前的贸易生态的确发出了值得警惕的信号。

In a way,Capital account deficit to our country was not all bad.In the more open capital outflow under the premise of the project,Capital account deficit can balance the current account surplus,International balance of payment is easier to balance,The central bank also can use less additional yuan to buy extra exchange,This will also reduce the pressure of RMB appreciation.so,Dynamically judgment,In order to correct"Double surplus"Mechanism of balance of payments in the distortion of the state,Optimization of China's foreign trade environment,Management will allow and tolerate capital and financial project a certain degree the presence of deficit.but,International experience shows that,One of the best ways to balance international payments,Is a large number of often surplus corresponds to a large number of capital deficit.To see,Our current trade ecological indeed made worth alert signal.

　　数据显示，除第一季度外，2012年二、三、四季度分别出现了655亿美元、712亿美元和318亿美元的资本逆差，全年相比与2011年1861亿美元的资本顺差所形成的悬挂性“缺口”宽达3034亿美元。与此同时，2012年我国经常项目顺差为2138亿美元，同比仅增长6%，增幅远远小于前10年10%以上的水平，而且占国内生产总值之比同比下降0.2个百分点。特别值得指出的是，受中国生产要素价格上升以及国际范围内市场竞争的影响，未来将有部分外资进一步从中国流出，增量FDI的进入量也不容乐观，经常项目的顺差由此会继续减少。因此，如果资本项目和经常项目的双重收敛势头得不到有效控制，势必对中国经济的未来增长动能形成深度挫伤，并最终可能使中国陷入对外贸易逆差的被动境地。在这种情况下，我们需要以制度与政策机制的进一步创新来导控好资本逆差的规模和流程。

Data display,In addition to the first quarter,In 2012 two/three/Four quarter appeared $65.5 billion respectively/Us $71.2 billion and us $31.8 billion of capital deficit,Compared with the $2011 in capital surplus by the formation of the suspension property"gap"Width of us $303.4 billion.meanwhile,In 2012, a current account surplus for 213.8 billion dollars,Only 6% year-on-year growth,Growth is far less than the previous ten years more than 10% of the level,And the ratio of GDP fell 0.2% year-on-year.Especially, as noted,Under China's factor price rise and international within the scope of the influence of the market competition,The future there will be part of the foreign capital outflow further from China,Incremental FDI into quantity is not optimistic,Current account surplus thus will continue to reduce.so,If capital projects and often project double convergence momentum can not get effective control,Will be in China's economic future growth kinetic energy formation depth contusion,And finally could make China foreign trade deficit in the passive situation.In this case,We need to further system and policy mechanism innovation to guide control good capital deficit scale and process.

　　控制经常项目顺差收敛的节奏和放缓资本项目逆差的进度，首先得进一步拓宽外资的投资空间和渠道。按照产业转移理论，跨国公司产业转移一般遵循先制造业后服务业，然后研发中心的递进过程，转移周期一般在20年左右。显然，外企进入中国的第一阶段已完成，正开始向第二阶段迈进。为此，政府可考虑鼓励符合条件的外资企业合作申请中国的国家科技开发项目，能力建设项目；鼓励跨国公司在华设立地区总部、研发中心、采购中心、财务管理中心等功能性机构，提高产业综合配套能力。而在资本的产业选择上，政府应以更多优惠政策鼓励外商投资战略性新兴产业、现代农业、现代服务业和节能环保产业。

Control the rhythm of the current account surplus convergence and slow the progress of the capital account deficit,First of all have to further broaden the foreign investment space and channels.According to the theory of industrial transfer,Multinational companies industrial transfer generally follow the first after manufacturing services,Then the r&d center of progressive process,Transfer cycle generally in twenty years.obviously,The first phase of the foreign company in China has been completed,The second stage is beginning to forward.therefore,The government can consider to encourage meet the conditions of the foreign capital enterprise cooperation for China's national science and technology development projects,Ability construction project;Encourage multinational corporations to establish regional headquarters in China/R&d center/Procurement center/Financial management center, and other functional mechanism,Improve the industry comprehensive matching capacity.And in the capital industry choice,The government should take more preferential policies to encourage foreign investment strategic emerging industry/Modern agriculture/Modern service industry and energy conservation and environmental protection industry.

　　打破行业与市场垄断，可视作点燃和刺激外资和国内存量资本投资热情的又一具有深远意义的制度安排。虽然“藏汇于民”的趋势日渐明朗和强烈，但要使这部分依然滞留于金融体系的外汇资产进入实体经济并冲淡其“外流”意愿，还得加紧通过开放能源、金融和电信等国有化领域，在肢解垄断的同时为民间资本创造出新的投资市场。

To break the monopoly industry and market,Be regarded as a light and stimulating foreign and domestic stock of capital investment enthusiasm and a significant system arrangement.although"Hidden by people in"Trend is clear and strong,But to make this part of the financial system is still retained foreign assets into the real economy and dilute the"outflow"Intend to,Have stepped through the open energy/Finance and telecommunications and other field of nationalization,At the same time in dismember monopoly for the folk capital to create new investment market.

　　另外，以FII（间接投资）对冲FDI收敛的趋势，也是未来可供采取的一种资本平衡策略。资料显示，从2005到2012年，外国证券投资占我国同期资本净流入的18%，分别低于同样是新兴市场国家的印度、巴西的31%、47%。考虑到目前资本项目不能完全放开，管理层不妨进一步通过降低投资门槛来增加QFII的数量和扩充单个QFII的规模，将更多国外资金导入国内资本市场。

In addition,To FII(Indirect investment)Hedge FDI convergence trend,And in the future to take a capital balance strategy.Data shows,From 2005 to 2012,The foreign securities investment accounts for 18% of the net inflow of capital in the same period,Were lower than is also emerging market countries of India/Brazil's 31%/47%.Considering the current capital project cannot be completely let go,Management may further by reducing the investment threshold to increase the number of QFII and expand the scale of a single QFII,The more foreign capital into the domestic capital market.

　　还需特别强调的是，面对着“双顺差”时代的结束尤其是出口需求萎缩和资本流出频率加快对未来经济增长的瓶颈制约，管理层需要弱化对于出口贸易的依赖，在国内培植出以消费为主的经济增长新模式。为此，必须切实深化民众热望的收入分配制度改革，约束既得利益集团侵蚀社会财富的半径，加大转移支付的力度，力求实现财富积累由政府向民间的有序转移，真正藏富于民。

Still need to emphasize is,Facing the"Double surplus"The end of the era, especially export demand atrophy and speed up the frequency of capital outflow of future economic growth bottleneck restriction,Management need weakening for export trade dependence,In the domestic consumption to create is a new mode of economic growth.therefore,Must to deepen people's desire to reform of the income distribution system,Constraint vested interest group erosion of social wealth radius,Increase the strength of transfer payment,Strive to achieve wealth by the government to folk orderly transfer,Real people hide abound.

　　（作者系广东技术师范学院经济学教授）

(The author is guangdong technology normal college professor of economics)