专家：虽具积极象征意义，仍需冷静看待。中国制造的内外忧患、环境资源破坏型的发展以及低附加值的出口结构，值得警惕

experts:Although a positive symbolic meaning,Still need to calm view.Made in China and suffering/The development of environmental resources PoHuaiXing and low value-added export structure,alarmed

　　2012年，中国已基本确定在货物进出口总值上超越美国，成为全球最大货物贸易国。

In 2012,,China has basically determine the total import and export of goods to surpass the United States,As the world's largest trading nations goods.

　　这是继2009年中国成为世界第一大出口国和第二大进口国之后，中国对外贸易发展的又一个象征性节点。

This is the 2009 China become the world's first big exporter and second biggest importer later,China's foreign trade development and a symbolic node.

　　当地时间2月11日，美国预定公布2012年全年贸易数据。《第一财经日报》根据其已公布的2012年前11个月数据测算，即使是非常乐观地估计，美国2012年全年货物进出口总值达到38559.7亿美元，也仍然略低于中国海关总署公布的2012年中国全年货物进出口总值38667.6亿美元。

Local time on February 11,,The United States scheduled to report 2012 annual trade data.[The first financial daily]According to the published 2012 years ago 11 months of measuring data,Even if is very optimistic estimate,The United States in 2012 the total import and export of goods to $3.85597 trillion,Still slightly lower than the general administration of customs of China published in 2012, the Chinese import and export of goods the $3.86676 trillion.

　　然而，本报采访的专家认为，虽然这一超越具有积极的象征性意义，但结构和利润分配方面的软肋决定了，中国离“贸易强国”还有相当的差距。

however,Our newspaper interview experts say,Although this one beyond the symbolic significance of a positive,But the structure and profit distribution of soft rib decided,China is"Trade power"There are quite a gap.

　　总值或超美

Value or super beauty

　　出口的复苏和进口的持续扩大意味着，中国在货物贸易总值上对美国的超越可能具有可持续性。2009年，中国的货物出口和进口双双超越德国，成为当年世界第一大出口国和第二大进口国。2010、2011年，中国、美国分别保持出口第一、进口第二和出口第二、进口第一的位置，而美国则保持着进出口总值第一的“桂冠”。但随着2012年贸易数据的陆续披露，总值排位很可能发生改变。

The recovery of the export and import the continued expansion means,China's trade in goods to the United States on the gross beyond may have a sustainability.In 2009,,China's exports and imports both surpass Germany,Become the world's first big exporter and second largest importer.2010/In 2011,,China/The United States maintain export first respectively/The second import and export the second/Import the first position,But the United States maintained import and export value first"crown".But with the 2012 trade data were disclosed,Qualifying gross is likely to change.

　　中国海关总署公布的数据显示，2012年我国外贸进出口总值38667.6亿美元，同比增长6.2%；其中出口20489.3亿美元，同比增长7.9%；进口18178.3亿美元，同比增长4.3%；贸易顺差2311亿美元。

China's general administration of customs figures show,In 2012, foreign trade import and export (GDP) of us $3.86676 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 6.2%;Export of $2.04893 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 7.9%;Imported 1.81783 trillion us dollars,Year-on-year growth of 4.3%;The trade surplus of $231.1 billion.

　　而美国商务部下属的国家普查局（Bureau of Census）公布的数据显示，2012年1~11月，美国货物出口、进口总值分别为14164.4亿美元和20980.1亿美元。鉴于2011年12月，美国货物出口、进口总值分别为1268.4亿美元和1844.4亿美元，本报根据2012年前11个月美国出口、进口同比增长率（4.6%、3.7%）和2011年12月美国出口、进口同比增长率（8.0%、10.9%）测算得出，2012年全年，美国货物进出口总值将处于38384.2亿~38559.7亿美元的区间内。事实上，鉴于2012年前11个月美国进出口均比上年同期显著放缓，因此预计2012年全年进出口总值将更接近该区间的下限而不是上限。即使是以上限估计，2012年全年，美国的货物进出口总值亦将比中国的总值低107.9亿美元。

And the us department of commerce affiliate national census bureau(Bureau of Census)According to figures released,2012 1 ~ 11 months,The United States export/Import value $1.41644 trillion and $2.09801 trillion, respectively.In view of December 2011,The United States export/Import value $126.84 billion and $184.44 billion, respectively,According to the 2012 years ago the United States export 11 months/Year-on-year growth rate of import(4.6%/3.7%)And in December 2011, the United States export/Year-on-year growth rate of import(8.0%/10.9%)Estimates that,In the whole year of 2012,The United States will total import and export of goods at $3.83842 trillion to $3.85597 trillion range.In fact,In view of 2012 years ago the United States import and export all 11 months than the same period last year slows significantly,So in the whole year of 2012 is expected to import and export (GDP) will be more close to the lower limit between rather than limit.Even if the cap is estimated,In the whole year of 2012,The United States will also import and export of goods value than China's low gross $10.79 billion.

　　从中国和美国近5年的数据来看，两国出口、进口发展态势趋近：2009年受金融危机影响均有显著下降，2010、2011年得到较快复苏，而2012年虽有增长但增速放缓。不过，自2010年起，中国的复苏势头均比美国更强。

From China and the United States nearly five years of data to see,The two countries export/Import development trend approach:By 2009 financial crisis influence are down significantly,2010/2011 years to get faster recovery,And in 2012, though it is growth but growth is slowing.but,Since 2010,China's recovery momentum are stronger than the United States.

　　针对中国货物进出口总值超美，经济、贸易专家多持谨慎积极态度。

For Chinese goods import and export (GDP) super beauty,economic/Trade experts more cautious positive attitude.

　　对外经贸大学中国WTO学院副院长屠新泉对本报评论称，这个超越还是有积极意义的，至少反映了中国在世界经济中地位的提升，速度、规模以及实力的增强。与其他具有人口优势的国家相比，中国至少用好了人口红利。

Foreign economic and trade university, vice President of the college of China's WTO to our TuXinQuan commentary,This over there are still positive,At least reflects the Chinese in the world economy status of ascension,speed/Scale and strength enhancement.And the other has the advantages of population countries,China at least make good use of the demographic dividend.

　　然而，有相当一些专家认为，对于货物进出口总值的世界第一，就像GDP世界第二一样，都需要冷静看待：面临内外忧患的中国制造，对环境资源破坏型的发展，低附加值缺少品牌的总体出口产品结构，都提醒人们需要更为清醒和警惕。清华大学中美关系研究中心高级研究员周世俭对本报评论称，一个严重依赖外资和国外技术的发展中国家，贸易额再大，也划不到发达国家行列里去。

however,There are quite a few experts say,Import and export of goods to the value of the world first,As the world GDP as the second,All need to calm view:Face the hardship and made in China,The development of PoHuaiXing on environmental resources,Low value-added lack of brand overall export product structure,Have to remind people need more awake and alert.Tsinghua university relations between China and the United States, a senior fellow at the center of the ZhouShiJian commentary,A heavy reliance on foreign investment and foreign technology in the development of the country,Trade again big,Also get a developed country in the ranks.

　　“浮肿”的总值

"dropsy"The total

　　对于中国外贸部门而言，2012年虽然没有完成年初制定的进出口总值同比增长10%的目标，但在全球贸易复苏显著放缓的一年里，同比增长6.2%的水平依然不俗（即使按上述乐观估计测算，美国2012年的增长仅4.5%），并且也取得了外贸顺差对GDP增长贡献率为9.6%的成绩。

For China's foreign trade departments concerned,In 2012, although there is no complete set at the beginning of the import and export value year-on-year growth target of 10%,But in the global trade recovery slows significantly year,Year-on-year growth of 6.2% of the level is still not common(Even by the optimistic estimate measure,The growth of the United States in 2012 only 4.5%),And also made foreign trade surplus to GDP growth accounted for 9.6% of the results.

　　如果从贸易份额来看，2011年前三季度，中国货物进出口总值占全球总值的10.4%，而2012年前三季度则上升至11.1%。

If the trade share to see,The third quarter of 2011 years ago,China's import and export of goods accounted for 10.4% of the total cost of the global total,2012 years ago, and the third quarter rises to 11.1%.

　　但是正如遭遇人均GDP尴尬一样，中国的货物进出口总值第一也相当“浮肿”。

But as per capita GDP as with embarrassment,China's GDP is the first import and export of goods"dropsy".

　　周世俭对本报分析称，大进大出的加工贸易造成进出口总值高而利润低，这一部分贸易，中国只赚到了加工费。

ZhouShiJian to our analysis says,Big into the processing trade import and export value caused by high and low profit,This part of the trade,China has only made processing charges.

　　根据海关总署上月公布的数据，2012年，我国加工贸易进出口13439.5亿美元，增长3%，占我国外贸总值的34.8%。其中出口8627.8亿美元，增长3.3%；进口4811.7亿美元，增长2.4%。加工贸易项下顺差3816.1亿美元，扩大4.5%。

According to the general administration of customs data released last month,In 2012,,Chinese processing trade import and export $1.34395 trillion,Growth of 3%,China's foreign trade accounts for 34.8% of the total.Export of $862.78 billion,Growth of 3.3%;Imported 481.17 billion us dollars,Growth of 2.4%.Processing trade surplus of $381.61 billion,Expanded by 4.5%.

　　“例如一个生产电子产品的在华外资公司从韩国进口100美元/台的零部件，再以120美元/台的价格出口，实际上中国经济从每台产品上只赚到了20美元的加工费；但它却在中国的进出口总值上体现为220美元。”周世俭说。

"Such as a production of electronic products in China, foreign companies from South Korea imported $100 / table parts,Then the price of $120 / sets export,In fact China's economy from every piece of our product only twenty dollars earned the processing;But it is in China's import and export value embodies in $220."ZhouShiJian said.

　　商务部副部长蒋耀平曾在一次内部会议中，列举中国加工贸易第一大出口产品，逆差第一大类产品的笔记本电脑。他指出虽然全球95%的笔记本电脑在中国国内组装制造，但是从利润分布情况来看，中国的代工企业仅占5%~10%，而其他掌握核心元器件国家的利润率则在50%~80%。

Vice minister of commerce jiang yaoping worked in an internal meeting,China's processing trade are the first largest export products,Deficit first categories of products notebook computer.He pointed out that although 95% of the world's notebook computer assembly manufacturing in China,But in the profit distribution situation,China foundry enterprise only 5% ~ 10%,While other countries to grasp the core of the components of the profit margin is 50% ~ 80%.

　　“即从加工贸易的笔记本里面我们可以看到最获利的是谁。加工贸易的顺差产生在中国，利益在全球分享。美国凭借对技术、标准和软件的垄断，占据价值链的制高点，应该是在上、中、下游各个环节占住了利润。”蒋耀平说，“日本、韩国、中国台湾将顺差转移到中国大陆以后，也获得了利益。而我们只是在组装、加工环节获得了利益，从这里可以看到，贸易顺差（及总值）没有简单反映每个国家和地区的实际利益格局。”

"That is, from processing trade notebook inside we can see the most profit is who.Processing trade surplus produce in China,Interest in the global share.The United States relies on the technology/Standard and software of monopoly,Occupied the commanding heights of the value chain,Should be in/in/Downstream each link engaged a profit."Jiang yaoping says,"Japan/South Korea/China's Taiwan will surplus transfer to China later,Also won the interests.And we are just in the assembly/The processing link won the interests,From here you can see,Trade surplus(Amount and)There is no simple a reflection of each country and the area of the actual benefit pattern."

　　与此可做对比的一个例子是，同样是从全球17个国家采购零部件的美国波音公司，将密封舱门、起落架、水平尾翼、垂直尾翼等低技术外包给中国制造，却将飞机头、电子系统等核心部门放在本土，最终在本土进行有难度的组装，产生较大的价值链增值。

And this can do an example is compared,The same global from 17 countries purchasing parts Boeing co,Will seal doors/Landing gear/tailplane/Vertical tail and low technology outsourcing made in China,But the head/Electronic system core department in local,Finally, in country difficult assembly,The value chain have great value.

　　此外，一直受国内关注的进出口总值，实际上仅仅是货物贸易的数据。而在美国商务部公布的贸易数据中，既包含货物贸易，也包含服务贸易。由于对服务贸易的统计相对落后，中国一直做不到美欧国家普遍实行的全口径贸易统计。

In addition,Attention has been affected by domestic import and export (GDP),In fact is only goods trade data.In published by the us department of commerce trade data,Contain both trade in goods,Also includes service trade.The service trade statistics is relatively backward,China has been the American and European countries can't do the full aperture trade statistics.

　　“由于统计上有一定难度，造成服务贸易数据不够准确。例如，一家美资银行的中国分行在中国产生的营业额，应该算作中国从美国的服务贸易进口，但实际我们把它视作中国企业，因此总体统计难以操作。”屠新泉认为，“服务贸易本身是非常重要的，中国在服务贸易领域与世界主要经济体的差距还是比较明显的。如果谦虚点说，即使货物贸易总值2012年全球第一，我们也还有服务贸易的短板。”

"Due to the statistical has the certain difficulty,Cause service trade data was not accurate enough.Such as,A us bank of China branch in China produce turnover,China should be counted as from the United States import trade in services,But the actual we regard it as Chinese enterprises,So the overall statistics is difficult to operate."TuXinQuan think,"Service trade itself is very important,China in the field of service trade with the world's major economies the gap is still obvious.If modest point said,Even if the goods trade (GDP) in 2012, the world's first,We also have service trade short board."

　　数据准确性争议

Data accuracy dispute

　　在中国海关总署每年公布的出口主要国别（地区）总值表格中，进口原产国（地）中有一项是中华人民共和国。这也就是海关统计人员常提到的“国货复进口”。

The general administration of customs in China published annually main export country(area)Value in the form,Import country of origin(to)There is an of the People's Republic of China.This is the customs statistical personnel are often mentioned"Domestic complex import".

　　周世俭对本报表示，每年有相当一批广东省的企业为了获得退税，利用港澳管道，一进一出之间，每年产生了1000多亿的进口额。

ZhouShiJian to our newspaper said,Every year quite a number of the enterprise of guangdong province in order to get drawback,Use of Hong Kong and Macao pipeline,A into a between,Produced each year more than $1000 amount of imports.

　　海关人士向本报透露，一般而言，这与跨国公司的全球产业链布局策略有关，比如一家生产电子产品跨国公司，产品在中国内地生产，出口至其亚太集散中心香港之后，根据该产品在内地的销量，再分拨一批货物回到内地。但他也坦言，由于中国特色的出口退税制度，确实存在一批企业为了规避境内直接销售的税率，采用到港澳“走一遭”的方式，再以几乎零关税进口内地。为了规范进出口行为，外贸主管部门也曾多次寻找解决办法，但也难以根除这一积弊。

The customs people revealed to our newspaper,Generally speaking,The multinational company's global industrial chain layout strategy relevant,In the production of electronic products such as multinational companies,Products in mainland China production,Exported to the asia-pacific distribution center after Hong Kong,According to the sales of products in the mainland,A batch of goods distribution again back to the mainland.But he also said,Because the Chinese characteristic export tax rebate system,Does exist a number of enterprise in order to avoid domestic direct sales tax rate,The Hong Kong and Macao to"Go one by"way,Then almost zero tariff import inland.In order to standardize the behavior of import and export,The department in charge of foreign trade also has repeatedly find a solution,But it is also difficult to eradicate this any.

　　本报查阅海关总署发布的数据发现，2012年进口原产国为中华人民共和国的有1428.6亿美元，2011年为1226.1亿美元，2010年为1068.1亿美元。

The access to the general administration of customs data released by the found,The import of 2012 country of origin of the People's Republic of China for 142.86 billion dollars,$2011 in 122.61 billion,$2010 in 106.81 billion.

　　此外，中国2012年12月单月数据的“意外惊喜”，也引起相当多机构的质疑。2012年12月，我国出口同比增长14.1%，远高于前一月的2.9%以及市场预期的5.0%，进口同比增长6.0%，也高于上月的零增速以及市场预期的3.5%。

In addition,China in December 2012, the monthly performance data"surprise",Also considerable mechanism of question.In December of 2012,Our export year-on-year growth of 14.1%,Far higher than the previous month's 2.9% and 5.0% of the market expectations,Imports increased 6.0% year-on-year,Also higher than last month's zero growth and market forecasts of a 3.5% drop.

　　澳新银行大中华区首席经济师刘利提示说，中国贸易数据之间存在“打架”现象，这也引发了针对中国贸易数据准确性的怀疑。在2012年12月的数据中，出口大幅增长与中国主要港口吞吐量增速下滑就形成了鲜明的反差。他认为，应关注更广泛的市场数据，包括港口吞吐量以及航运价格指数，以更全面地了解中国的贸易状况。

Australia in the greater China region bank chief economist LiuLi prompt said,China's trade between data"fight"phenomenon,It also triggered for Chinese trade data accuracy of suspicion.In the December 2012 data,Export growth and China's main port throughput rate drop is formed a striking contrast.He thinks,Should pay attention to broader market data,Including the port throughput and shipping price index,In a more comprehensive understanding of China's trade status.

　　商务部新闻发言人沈丹阳则对此解释称，2012年12月外贸企业加快出口的重要原因是担心优惠政策到年底有变。如当年第四季度“免收法定检验检疫费”的优惠措施停止执行等，企业为了充分利用优惠措施，会抢时间出口。

Commerce ministry spokesman, said ShenDanYang this explanation,In December 2012, foreign trade enterprises to speed up the export of important reason is worried about preferential policies to change the end of the year.Such as the fourth quarter"From legal inspection quarantine fee"Preferential measures to stop execution, etc,Enterprise in order to make full use of preferential measures,Will fight against time export.

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