中国出口信用保险公司日前发布2012年四季度ER I指数。ER I综合指数显示，四季度ER I综合指数收于103.69点，环比与上季度持平，同比下降0.21点，表明中国短期出口贸易信用状况仍比较稳定。

China's export credit insurance company has issued 2012 quarter Er I index.Er I composite index display,The fourth quarter Er I composite index closed at 103.69 points,Link with the same quarter,Lower than 0.21 points,Show that China's short-term export trade status is still relatively stable.

　　ER I指数采用指数评分的方式，从中国短期出口贸易的主要贸易国别和重点出口行业两个角度，分别反映海外进口商整体信用风险及其变化趋势。根据量化分析的结果，把信用风险水平分为A、B、C、D、E 5个信用等级，并对指数运行趋势进行预测。

Er I index using index score way,From China's short-term export trade main trade country and key export industry in two aspects,Overseas importers respectively reflect the overall credit risk and its change trend.According to the results of quantitative analysis,The credit risk level is divided into A/B/C/D/E Five credit rating,And the index operation trend forecast.

　　2012年末，世界经济仍然复苏乏力，欧元区陷入衰退，美日经济持续低迷，新兴经济体普遍放缓。与世界经济增速放缓趋势相一致，2012年全球贸易增速明显下降。中国出口全年增速仅为7.9%，未实现预期目标。分时段看，四季度受消费旺季影响，中国外贸需求有所回升，出口增速表现强劲，同时本期付款表现有所下滑，违约事件小幅攀升。

By the end of 2012,The world economy is still weak recovery,The euro zone into a recession,The sustained economic downturn,Emerging economies slowdown in common.And the world economic slowdown in consistent trend,In 2012, the global trade growth decreased obviously.China's export growth throughout the year is only 7.9%,Unrealized anticipated goal.Period of time to see,By the fourth quarter consumption season influence,China's foreign trade demand have rebounded,Strong export growth,At the same time this payment slipped performance,Event of default budged.

　　从四季度主要国家和地区的E R I指数结果来看，澳大利亚 、马来西亚、韩国 、美国和加拿大为A级；沙特阿拉伯、日本、法国 、阿联酋、南非 、印度和越南为B级；荷兰、英国 、印尼、埃及 、墨西哥和德国为C级；俄罗斯 、西班牙 、委内瑞拉和巴西为D级，违约风险相对较高；意大利 、阿根廷和乌克兰为E级，违约风险相对很高。

From the four quarters of the main countries and districts E r I see the index,Australia /Malaysia/South Korea /The United States and Canada for A level;Saudi Arabia/Japan/France /The united Arab emirates/South Africa /India and Vietnam for class B;The Netherlands/British /Indonesia/Egypt /Mexico and Germany for C level;russia /Spain /Venezuela and Brazil for D level,Default risk is relative taller;Italy /Argentina and Ukraine for E stage,relatively high risk of default.

　　从主要国别和地区指数变动趋势来看，共有19个国家和地区ERI指数保持稳定，4个国家ERI指数环比上升，3个国家ERI指数环比下降。分区域看，欧美主要国家相对稳定，新兴经济体及拉美波动较大。

From the main country and regional index change trend,There are 19 countries and regions ErI index remained stable,Four countries ErI index link up,Three countries ErI index link down.Points area to see,Europe and the United States the main countries relatively stable,Emerging economies of Latin America and large fluctuations.

　　从四季度主要行业ER I指数结果来看，能源行业、医药行业和金属制品行业为A级；家电视听行业、机械行业、家具、纺织服装行业、食品饮料烟草行业、化学制品行业、信息技术行业和电器与电子元器件为B级。

From the four major industries quarter Er I see the index,Energy industry/Pharmaceutical industry and metal products industry as A level;Home appliance audio-visual industry/Machinery industry/furniture/Textile and garment industry/Food and beverage tobacco industry/Chemical industry/Information technology industry and electrical and electronic components for class B.

　　从主要行业ER I指数变动趋势来看，能源行业、医药行业ERI指数上升至高位；信息技术行业指数有所下降，电器与电子元器件行业指数小幅下滑。

From the main industry Er I index change trend,Energy industry/The pharmaceutical industry ErI index rose to high;Information technology industry index declined,Electrical and electronic components industry index decline slightly.

　　结合当前的全球经济形势和国际贸易形势，预计2013年一季度E R I综合指数会小幅下降，中国信保建议警惕地缘政治局势变化引起的政治风险和贸易保护主义的持续抬头。国别方面，关注日本、埃及及部分拉美国家可能的下滑趋势。行业方面，预计电器及电子元器件行业、信息技术行业将在低位徘徊，家具纺织服装行业和化学制品行业可能会有所下降。中国信保将在2013年4月份对外发布2013年一季度ER I指数。

Combined with the current global economic situation and the international trade situation,Expected in the first quarter of 2013 E r I will be comprehensive index fell slightly,Chinese believe the advice alert geopolitical situation caused by the fluctuation of political risk and trade protectionism looked for.Allocated in,Focus on Japan/Egypt and some Latin American countries may decline trend.industry,Is expected to electrical and electronic components industry/Information technology industry will be in the low end,Furniture textile clothing industry and chemical industry may be declined.The Chinese believe in 2013 will be released in April in the first quarter of 2013 Er I index.